2021 Shriners Children’s Open Betting Odds & Picks: 17 Outrights, Sleepers & Props at TPC Summerlin
Getty Images. Pictured: Abraham Ancer (left) and Maverick McNealy.
- The Shriners Children's Open tees off Thursday at TPC Summerlin with a loaded field in Las Vegas.
- From a full list of odds to our favorite props and longshot bets, our team has every angle of this tournament covered.
- Read below for everything you need to know to bet this week's tourney.
After a pair of events without some of the game’s elite players, the 2021 Shriners Children’s Open brings back some of the PGA TOUR’s big names.
Brooks Koepka and last week’s winner Sam Burns are among the noteworthy players who are going to tee it up this week at TPC Summerlin, which has rewarded a specific type of player over the years. Some of those winners broke through and won for the first time on TOUR, a theme that you’ll read more about below.
For one of the bigger stateside events during the fall swing of the TOUR’s 2021-22 season, our staff has broken down who is poised to get off to a strong start for the fall slate. Check out their best bets below.
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|Si Woo Kim||+4500|
|Erik Van Rooyen||+5000|
|Charles Howell III||+15000|
|Kyoung Hoon Lee||+20000|
2021 Shriners Betting Picks
Scottie Scheffler (+2300)
Jason Sobel: Once upon a time — 1969, to be exact — a 32-year-old named Tommy Aaron qualified for the U.S. Ryder Cup team without ever having won a PGA TOUR event. He didn’t play especially great that week, finishing with a 1-2-1 record, but contributed to the team in a tie which saw them retain the title. By the next spring, perhaps buoyed by that Ryder Cup appearance, Aaron was a PGA TOUR champion, winning the Atlanta Classic. A few years later, he’d claim the Masters for his second (and only other) victory.
In 2010, Rickie Fowler was part of a U.S. team without a win, as well. It took another year-and-a-half, but he, too, finally triumphed. And while, no, Rickie still doesn’t have a major and his game has taken a recent downturn, he does own four other titles, including The Players Championship. (Just to show this isn’t a foolproof narrative, Jeff Overton also made that 2010 team without ever winning. He still hasn’t — and injuries have prevented him from even competing in a PGA TOUR event in more than 4 1/2 years.)
By now, you know where I’m going with all of this.
Just a few weeks ago, Scheffler became the fourth non-winner ever to compete for a U.S. Ryder Cup team — and the most successful of the quartet, posting a 2-0-1 record in the team’s thrashing of Europe. It would be easy to maintain that he has more Aaron and Fowler in him than Overton, but even that might be a disservice to his skills.
The truth is, I think we’ll someday look back at Scheffler’s performance as a catalyst to a very good career. I won’t go overboard and claim that he’s going to be No. 1 in the world or a five-time major champion someday, but he’ll be one of the world’s better players for the next decade or two, the type who can pick off a win (or more) every season.
There’s every reason to believe that success can start this week, as he’ll never have more confidence than coming straight off a(nother) match-play victory over Jon Rahm. He missed the cut at this tourney last year, but scores of 69-67 should hardly be cause for concern that he can’t go low here.
At a tourney which has been a breeding ground for initial victories for great careers — the eclectic group of Jim Furyk, Tiger Woods, Kevin Na and Patrick Cantlay each claimed their first win at this one — Scheffler can be the latest first-timer to leave Vegas with a smile on his face.
Abraham Ancer (+2500)
Chris Murphy: The odds this week are interesting with no clear, stand-alone favorite. Instead, we have a bunch of guys hovering in the mid-2000s range to win, which is where I find my top play of the week, Abraham Ancer.
Ancer is the perfect fit around TPC Summerlin and has shown it with two recent top-five finishes at this event, which rewards hitting fairways and greens.
We finally saw Ancer breakthrough for a win over the summer at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude, and I am hopeful that it will open the floodgates for the talented young Mexican. He checks all of the boxes for me this week, and is a clear top play in my model, which has him standing out as my best bet of the week.
Webb Simpson (+3000)
Matt Vincenzi: Both of the past two winners at TPC Summerlin had won the event previously in their careers. I believe Webb Simpson will make it three in a row this week.
The course is a natural fit for Simpson, as evidenced by his previous win and four top-20 finishes in his past four trips here. He ranks first in the field in Strokes Gained: Total at TPC Summerlin. This is a spot on the schedule where course history absolutely matters and it should play in his favor once again this week.
To compete at TPC Summerlin, making birdies is a must as we often see winning scores get beyond the 20-under range. Simpson ranks first in the field in Birdie or Better in his past 24 rounds, and I like his chances of keeping up if this turns into another birdie fest.
The 36-year-old hasn’t won a TOUR event since June of 2020 and had an up-and-down year in 2020-21 in comparison to his usual consistent play throughout his career.
Simpson is a golfer who continuously plays the same tracks well year after year, so getting back to a spot he is comfortable at could be the spark that gets him back into the winner’s circle this week.
Joaquin Niemann (+4500)
Landon Sillinsky: This feels like a big time Niemann week, a birdie fest where the rough is not penalizing and good iron play is imperative. The Chilean checks all of those boxes, ranking 29th on TOUR in birdie or better percentage last season while sitting 15th in this field in Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking over his past 48 rounds. Niemann is also a better putter on bent grass than other surfaces making this a slam dunk.
I’m expecting a massive leap from the 22-year-old this year, and that could very well begin with claiming his second career TOUR victory this week. The 30th ranked player in the world has gone T-13 and T-10 in two of his three career starts here. Getting 40/1 is pretty juicy in this spot.
Sungjae Im (+3200)
Rob Bolton: Some readers know that, when warranted, I’ll tweet a weather update on Wednesday afternoons or evenings, depending on where you live. It’s been unnecessary for a while, but I haven’t ruled it out for the Shriners.
My first peek at the forecast always is parked in Monday’s Power Rankings, so that pubs before tee times are released (on Tuesdays) and, therefore, the draw. That’s why Wednesday’s more timely focus can be valuable.
Of the four blocks of tee times, Thursday morning projects to be the best for scoring.
Im goes off No. 1 at 7:35 a.m. local time. He should walk off the 18th hole right around when the wind will kick up, and it could gust to higher than 20 mph when it does. Friday’s winds are forecast to be moderate but steady for most of the day, but even if Im is caught in a tough spot, he shouldn’t be too stressed about making the cut after what he should score in Round 1.
You already know that the 23-year-old is a red-number machine. Im has recorded a pair of top 15s in as many trips to TPC Summerlin where his scoring average is 67.25 (and that includes a 1-over 72 in his first-ever loop in 2018). And the last two scoring averages on the course rank as the lowest of all par 71s in the last 10 completed seasons.
Webb Simpson (+3000)
Bryan Berryman: This is one of those cases where it pays to shop around for the best line on the golfers you like in a given week. On DraftKings, Webb is second-highest-priced golfer going off at +1800 to win in Vegas. On FanDuel, we’re getting him as the seventh-highest price on a course that is tailor-made for him.
TPC Summerlin is a course that requires a great short game and pinpoint accuracy into greens. Over the last 50 rounds in this field, Simpson ranks in the top 25 in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Approach and Putting — a true all-around talent that thrives on courses like this, which has been proven by his history here. He’s 7-for-7 in made cuts and ranks first in both Strokes Gained: Approach and SG: Total in this field in events played at TPC Summerlin.
I love this number on him this week.
Scott Piercy (+15000)
Jason Sobel: Anytime the PGA TOUR plays desert golf, Piercy is one of the first names I look for in the field.
Much as some players only contend on short, tight courses and others only play well when there’s certain types of grass on the greens, this kind of track is Piercy’s bread and butter. It’s an idea which was born years ago, when the Las Vegas-based mini-tour player at the time won something called The Ultimate Game in his hometown – and a cool $2 million in the process. Since 2009, he’s made a dozen starts at this event and cashed top-30 tickets in nine of those years, including a T-19 last year and four previous top-10s.
Piercy has, of course, progressed from a mini-tour regular to a four-time PGA TOUR champion – and if you’re into patterns, his last three wins have come in 2012, 2015 and 2018, with 2021 quickly dwindling to the end.
Luke List (+12000)
Chris Murphy: This event has the feel of one where we are going to see someone with shorter odds get it done, as there are plenty of names to choose from short of +5000.
However, if I am shooting for someone down in price, I’d go for a player like Luke List. He has shown across his last two events that his ball striking is there and completely in form. As is always the case, though, it comes down to his putter. List was the second-best player in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green last week, only falling short of champion Sam Burns.
I really like List’s fit for this course with his ball striking and it’s an added bonus to see that he has gained more than a stroke on these greens in three of his last four trips to the Shriners, each of those three resulting in a top-20 finish.
I believe he is a player that will win on TOUR at some point, and this is the type of track where he could get it done at long odds.
Mito Pereira (+6600)
Matt Vincenzi: I had to jump off the Mito train when he was priced up as one of the tournament favorites last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship, but I’ll gladly jump back on here at 66/1.
In many ways, this is a better course fit for Pereira. Chief among those reasons is his ability to putt on Bentgrass greens. Like his fellow countryman Niemann, most of the early success in the Chilean’s career has come on similar putting surfaces. In fact, in his past 10 measures starts between the Korn Ferry Tour and PGA TOUR, Pereira has five top-six finishes, including two Korn Ferry wins. All five of those performances came on Bentgrass greens.
Pereira also comes into the event in peak form, having contended for a victory two starts ago at the Fortinet Championship and posted excellent ball-striking stats last week at the Country Club of Jackson. He gained 5.6 strokes on approach and was dialed in with his irons all week. He didn’t contend because he lost almost 5 strokes with the putter, which I don’t expect to happen this week on greens that will suit him much better.
We know the TOUR rookie can win a birdie fest as his two wins on the Korn Ferry Tour came at -27 and -21. TPC Summerlin seems to be an ideal spot for Pereira to earn his first victory on the PGA TOUR.
Maverick McNealy (+6000)
Landon Sillinsky: We will continue with betting on the young talent theme here with McNealy.
The 25-year old is playing some exceptional golf over the last few months, finishing T-21 or better in six of his previous eight starts, including a runner-up finish his last time out at the Fortinet Championship.
McNealy ranks 10th in total birdies made in this field across his past 48 rounds and is a good Bentgrass putter. He currently resides in Las Vegas so he’s likely played TPC Summerlin plenty of times. He’s on an upward trajectory and the contextual factors are lining up for him to contend this week.
Cameron Tringale (+5500)
Bryan Berryman: I’ve lost track of how many times it looked like Tringale was about to break through for his first win, only to fall just short on Sunday. It’s been an unfortunate trend, but one that I am betting will come to an end at some point this season.
Why not this week?
TPC Summerlin is a fantastic fit for Tringale, who ranks sixth in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, seventh in SG: Putting and 27th in SG: Approach over the last 50 rounds.
On a course that has historically favored great approach players who are excellent on and around the greens, Tringale sets up well to make a run this weekend.
Maverick McNealy Top 20 (+250)
Jason Sobel: Over the past few months, I’ve probably offered a half-dozen analyses on McNealy’s impressive consistency. He’s finished top-30 in eight of his last nine starts but was never better than T-16 in those first seven of them.
A runner-up result at the season-opening Fortinet Championship makes me believe we can push the gas pedal on him just a little more, especially on courses where distance isn’t a major advantage, like this one. I don’t mind a top-10 ticket, but top-20 might be safer for the Vegas resident.
Sam Burns Top 5 (+525)
Chris Murphy: I believe we have a star in the making on TOUR in Sam Burns.
He captured his second win last weekend at the Sanderson Farms, where he simply torched the field both tee-to-green and ball striking. I don’t expect that to go away for the former LSU alum who posted a second-place finish in the first event following his win at the Valspar last season.
Burns seems ready to take the next step in his game and I am not putting it past him to contend on another course that should suit his ball striking style of play.
Talor Gooch and Aaron Wise both to make the cut (+145)
Rob Bolton: I don’t care that it looks too good to be true, I’m going to endorse it.
Talor Gooch could challenge for the breakthrough victory and Wise has been a steady producer for months. Collectively, they are 5-for-8 with three top 20s at TPC Summerlin, each with at least one.
Gooch is enviously balanced throughout his bag, while Wise’s propensity to fire at flags slotted him ninth in greens hit and T-25 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green last season. Best of all, Wise goes off in the first threesome teeing off on No. 1 on Thursday. Gooch is slotted just two groups behind. (See my outright on Im for more on why this angle should matter.)
Side note: Taking a page out of my playbook that delivered Joh Rahm’s missed cut at Silverado (at +700 to boot), I also like Patrick Reed at +190 to miss the cut at the Shriners. You’ll find more analysis as for why in my Fantasy Insider at PGATOUR.com.
Will Zalatoris (-130) over Harris English
Jason Sobel: Obviously, the best matchup plays are the ones where you’re not simply backing one player or fading the other, but doing both — and that’s exactly why I’m betting this one.
We all know about Zalatoris’ potential by now. The reigning Rookie of the Year is already a world-class ball-striker. Much like a Collin Morikawa or a Matsuyama, he’s capable of contending anytime his putter feels like cooperating.
If Scheffler isn’t the next big name to win for the first time in Vegas, as mentioned above, then it could certainly be Willy Z., a guy I’m perpetually bullish about.
I feel very differently about English. Sure, he helped the U.S. team to Ryder Cup history and has been enjoying the spoils, raising his profile enough to be a guest picker on ESPN’s College Gameday last week. That’s great for him, but let’s not overlook the fact that he was 1-2-0 at Whistling Straits and didn’t finish better than 17th in three playoff starts before that.
English’s record here is similarly average, with just a pair of top-30s in seven starts, which makes him a fade for me. In this matchup, Zalatoris should cruise.
Viktor Hovland (-120) over Sam Burns
Matt Vincenzi: Viktor Hovland comes into the week playing really well of late and ranks fourth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. I thought his tee-to-green performance at the Ryder Cup was excellent and expect him to build off of that this week.
I also think this is a good spot to fade Burns for a few reasons. Coming off of his second PGA TOUR victory I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of complacency the following week after lifting a trophy just a few days ago. Additionally, we all know “Bermuda Burns” is a Bermuda grass specialist, and we are heading to the desert with Bentgrass greens.
A decent finish for Burns certainly wouldn’t be a shock to anyone this week, but I feel Hovland is the better overall player and may be a better course fit.
Cameron Tringale (-105) over Sungjae Im
Bryan Berryman: Over the last 50 tracked rounds Tringale ranks sixth in this field in Strokes Gained: Around the Green, seventh in Strokes Gained: Putting, and 27th in Strokes Gained: Approach.
Let’s compare these numbers against his opponent in this matchup, Sungjae Im. Over the same time frame, Im ranks 99th in approach, 91st in putting and 10th in around the green. It’s clear to see why my model gives this bet a 10% edge over the current betting line.
While Sungjae has been playing better of late, the edge clearly goes to Tringale in this matchup.
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