American Express Golf Betting Odds, Longshot Picks: 3 Dark Horse Bets, Including Phil Mickelson

Updated American Express Odds

The PGA TOUR returns to the mainland this week after two weeks in Hawaii. While much of the country still shivers through the chills of winter, the TOUR will once again be played under sun and palm trees, this week at The American Express at PGA West outside of Palm Springs.

Handicapping this event is more difficult than most, with three different courses in play throughout the four rounds of tournament play. Finding a player that fits three courses is a tougher task, but with years of data from this venue, we should be able to not just find some strong picks among the favorites, but also a few longshots who could compete this weekend.

The TOUR's best players are beginning to emerge from their offseason hiatus, making things tougher for typical longshots. World No. 1 Jon Rahm is back in action this week, along with reigning FedEx Cup champion Patrick Cantlay.

Deeper down the board, there are a few names that pop out with the potential to sneak into the winner’s circle by Sunday night.

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Adam Hadwin +6500

After missing seven of 10 cuts to end last season, Hadwin’s game appears to have rounded back into form. He’s begun this PGA TOUR season with five straight made cuts, including a top-10 back at the Shriners. The turnaround has been largely due to his putting, which ranks 29th worldwide over the last three months.

That form could continue this week as the Canadian returns to an event where he has seen heaps of success. In six appearances at the American Express, Hadwin is yet to miss a cut and boasted four straight top-10 finishes from 2016 to 2019.

Though this tournament is played at multiple courses, which can make it hard for a player to be better suited for the event that a single course set-up, Hadwin clearly likes something about this venue. Back in 2019, Hadwin fired a course record 59 in the third round at this event.

He’s worth a flyer this week, with hopes he can re-capture that magic.

Michael Thompson +11000

Whether you prefer finding players currently playing their best or players who have played well at this venue before, Thompson could be your guy.

The newly-bearded TOUR veteran is coming off a top-5 finish this week at the Sony Open. He’s also returning to the site of a top-5 finish last year at the American Express.

After starting his season with six straight made cuts, Thompson has announced himself as a factor in the early PGA TOUR campaign.

His recent strong play has been fueled by a hot short game. Thompson ranks 13th in the world in Strokes Gained: Around the Green over the last three months per DataGolf, a key statistic as the TOUR returns to different grass in the continental United States this week. His ability to adapt will be key.

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Phil Mickelson +10000

Sure, why not?

Aside from the PGA Championship, most of Lefty’s recent success has come on the Champions Tour, though his weekend at Kiawah proved that Mickelson can still catch lightning in a bottle for a four-round tournament. Especially at a venue that suits his eye and his penchant for hitting (and occasionally spraying) his driver, Phil can still be a factor a few times a year against the world’s best.

Mickelson has played well here in the past, with top-three finishes in 2016 and 2019. Those aren’t yesterday, but also aren’t ancient history. Phil’s next level thinking around a golf course where he has already played well is always a leg up on players with less experience.

Even in his fifties, Phil is able to compete on TOUR, making cuts in six of his last nine full-field events.

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