Updated 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds & 3 Picks for Keith Mitchell, Maverick McNealy, More

There wasn't much to show for the Honda Classic. Chris Kirk flirted with the top of the leaderboard most of the week, but it never really felt like he was in contention. Then a late triple ended up costing him the top five by a stroke.

With the next stop on the Florida swing, we head to Bay Hill and the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The Course

Bay Hill is the longest track we will see during the Florida swing, measuring just over 7,400 yards for a par 72. With the added length and extra par 5s, this course plays to the strengths of the bombers a little bit more than most Florida courses. There is water in play on about half of the holes, so accuracy will matter as well. Bay Hill can play pretty tough if the wind blows, but there are a lot of birdies available if you can stay out of trouble.

Past champions Jason Day and Rory McIlroy finished just short of 20-under par in more benign conditions, but scores around 10-under can get the job done if the wind picks up. Last year’s champion, Bryson DeChambeau, lifted the trophy with a score of 11-under par.

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The Favorites

Jon Rahm will make his debut at the API this week and opens as the betting favorite at around +800. Like just about every course it seems, Bay Hill should suit him nicely if he can avoid the water.

Rory McIlroy is up next at +1200 and this has been one of the better spots for him. He's finished inside the top 10 each of the last five years, including a win in 2018.

Scottie Scheffler and Viktor Hovland are right behind at +1600 and +1800, respectively. Hovland's results have been mediocre at Bay Hill. He's made the cut all three times, but never finished better than 40th. Scheffler was 15th here two years ago and backed up his win in Phoenix with a seventh at Riviera, so I'd expect him to keep up his strong play.

Hideki Matsuyama closes out this range at +2500. He's usually going to make the weekend here, but hasn't really been much of a factor after that. He's made the cut seven straight times, but finished inside the top 15 just once.

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The Mid-Tier

We'll open up the card here with Keith Mitchell at +4500 on PointsBet. Mitchell has been in a good run of form with four top-15 finishes in his last five starts. Bay Hill has also been a good spot for him, finishing fifth in 2020 and sixth in 2019. This was the spot I've had down for him on the outright card since his return to form.

I'm also going with Maverick McNealy at +6600 on bet365. He's coming off a good week at Riviera where he placed seventh. He relied a lot on his short game that week, but he's usually a good ball striker and is long off the tee so I could see him having a good result here.

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The Longshots

This hasn't been much of a longshot course. Outside of when Matt Every defended his title in 2015, triple-digit winners have been few and far between at Bay Hill.

I will take one shot here though with Beau Hossler at 200/1 on PointsBet. Hossler was 16th at the Honda Classic last week and also finished third earlier in the year at Pebble Beach. He's played decent here as well, making the cut three times, highlighted by a T-24th finish in 2020. He's at least worth a top-20 type play this week.

It's a bit of a light card with the Puerto Rico Open also on tap for this week.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational Card

• Keith Mitchell +5000 (.66 units)
• Maverick McNealy +6600 (.5 units)
• Beau Hossler +20000 (.17 units)

Total Stake: 1.33 units

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