2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds & Picks: Ian Poulter, Lanto Griffin Among 3 Longshots To Target

Last week's Honda Classic was a paradise for longshot hunters.

Sepp Straka topped the leaderboard after starting the week at +10000 to win. The top 10 featured a host of other players who began the week with odds of +5000 or higher, including Chris Kirk, Kurt Kitayama, Brian Stuard and John Huh. For bettors who troll for value in the back-half of the board, it was an unpredictable, but potentially lucrative week.

As the PGA Tour turns to the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill, this week looks more precarious for a potential dark horse winner. Many of the world's best are back in action, including Jon Rahm and past champion Rory McIlroy.

While that likely lowers our chances of seeing an unlikely winner, it does push the odds of some very talented golfers into a more enticing range for flyer bets. Sam Burns, the 16th-ranked player in the world, is available as high as +5000 to win. Other players in the world's top 50 can be had for even longer odds.

In looking for a longshot, that moves our eyes much further down the board than in most weeks. These three players, all offered at +8000 or higher as of writing, will have a chance to compete at Bay Hill on Sunday.

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Lanto Griffin +8000

Very quietly, Lanto Griffin has been playing some excellent golf in 2022. Since flipping the calendar to start January, the 33-year-old American has played four tournaments and finished in the top 40 in each of them.

Griffin peaked with a tie for third last month at the American Express. Over the past three months, he ranks 20th in the world in True Strokes Gained, per DataGolf. Though his putting has been fine, if you remove the most high-variance piece of the strokes gained puzzle and just look from tee to green, Griffin has been the 13th best golfer in the world over the last 90 days.

He returns to Bay Hill for just the third time in his career, though he has played well at this venue in his previous appearances. Last year, he finished T21, dragged down by a final round 77. In his first trip to Bay Hill, Griffin made the cut and finished T36.

I expect him to carry his current strong play into this event and have a chance to compete on the weekend.

Ian Poulter +10000

It's been nearly three years since Ian Poulter won a professional golf tournament. Now that he's entering the later stages of his career, that likely feels like a lifetime ago.

If he's going to find his way back into contention for a win, a familiar venue might help. Poulter certainly has that here at Bay Hill, with 56 career rounds under his belt at this event.

Some of his advanced numbers don't jump out at Bay Hill, largely because they are dragged down by some early failures at the course. In his first five trips to Bay Hill, Poulter made the cut only once and finished T48.

Since 2011, however, Poulter has made 11 consecutive cuts at this event. In seven of those 11 outings, Poulter finished T26 or better. He might not have the length to compete on every course on Tour, but Poulter is able to make up that gap at a place like Bay Hill with some course knowledge and a hot putter.

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Matt Wallace +25000

We'll keep our minds across the pond and highlight another Englishman.

Wallace has been hot and cold over the last few years, but there's a chance Bay Hill can reignite his game. He's missed each of his last two cuts, yet that was the exact same situation he faced last season entering this event. He still managed a T18, his first of five top-20 finishes in a span of seven starts.

Wallace's game limped in to the end of 2021, but has shown some signs of life in the 2022 season. He finished T14 at the Shriners Children's Open and T4 at the ZOZO Championship.

Wallace clearly eyes Bay Hill as one of his favorite stops on the calendar. He's played the event three times and never finished lower than T24. Paying at +25000, I like his chances to earn his first career PGA Tour win.

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