2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds: Justin Rose & Kevin Kisner Among 5 Outright Picks

We came close at Torrey Pines. Will Zalatoris gave us a chance, but in the end, it was a playoff loss to Luke List.

Now we move on to Pebble Beach for the AT&T Pro-Am. With this one, we tend to see one of the favorites take it down, or we get someone from out of nowhere.

The Courses

Monterey Peninsula returns after a one-year hiatus to join Pebble Beach and Spyglass Hill. Each course will be used once over the first three rounds, followed by the final round at Pebble.

Scoring here is usually pretty easy, but the wind can make it tricky if it picks up. Monterrey usually plays the easiest of the three, but if the wind picks up, the par-72 Spyglass Hill has more trees that protect it and becomes much more playable than Pebble.

All the courses measure around 7,000 yards and play as some of the shortest on TOUR.

It’s one of the few events where length off the tee isn’t really a big factor. It usually comes down to a good iron player who can handle putting on bumpy and fast poa annua greens.

It tends to be an event where a star is dialed in and takes it down, or we get someone to pull off a massive surprise. The last 10 events were all won by a player under +3000 or over +15000.

The Favorites

Patrick Cantlay opens at the top of the board between +700 and +800 depending on where you look. He's had a spotty record here in the past but was third a year ago.

The defending champ Daniel Berger is next in line at +1200. This has been a good fit for Berger who has never finished outside the top 10 in three starts.

The familiar names of Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose and Jason Day headline the +2000s range. Day and Rose are fresh off a solid week at Torrey Pines, while Spieth has played great here for almost a decade. He's finished inside the top 25 in eight of his nine starts, including the win back in 2017. Day has been even better than Spieth, but he is missing that victory. He's placed 11th or better in eight of the last nine years.

Bet Justin Rose at Caesars and get a $5,000 risk-free first bet.

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But my play is actually going to be Rose here at +2800 on Caesars. Rose doesn't play here much but was sixth in 2016 and placed third in the 2019 U.S. Open. Rose has stalled out over the last year or so because the driver just isn't as good as it used to be. But this course doesn't require much in that area, and with the irons and putter in good shape following Torrey, he's worth a look here.

The Mid-Tier

I'll start here with Kevin Kisner at +5000 on BetMGM. Kisner had two top 10s in Hawaii where his approach and putting game were dialed in. He's played better in recent years here, making three of his last four cuts. He finished 10th in 2017 and lost three strokes putting during his two rounds at Pebble. If the irons and putter can line up again like they did for two weeks in Hawaii, he can finish near the top of this leaderboard.

Bet Kisner and Kuchar at BetMGM and get a risk-free bet up to $1,000.

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Next I'm going to take a chance with Matt Kuchar at +6600 on BetMGM. Kuchar showed up cold to Sony, gained strokes in every category, finished seventh and hasn't been seen since. But when distance isn't a factor, Kuchar can compete, so at that number, I'll take a chance with him. His record here is spotty, and it's been more than 10 years since his last top 10. But a 16th at the 2019 U.S. Open on Pebble is good enough for a recent result to get me to buy in.

I'll also go with Aaron Rai at +9000 on bet365. I imagine he'll be popular after the solid week at Torrey Pines, but this event should be a much better fit. His wins in Europe have all come on shorter courses. He's been riding some good form for a while now, finishing 2021 with three top 20s. Prior to that, he probably should have won the Korn Ferry playoff event in Boise.

Bet on Aaron Rai and get $500 in bet credits. NJ only.

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The Longshots

This is a course where we can take a few chances, so my final play will be Pat Perez at +11000 on Bet365. He was sixth last week where he gained a little over 10 strokes between approach and putting at Torrey Pines. That's the recipe for success here. He's shown he can play well here by making six of his last eight cuts with three top 15 finishes.

The Pebble Beach Card

• Justin Rose +2800 (1.18 units)
• Kevin Kisner +5000 (.66 units)
• Matt Kuchar +6600 (.5 units)
• Aaron Rai +9000 (.37 units)
• Pat Perez +11000 (.3 units)

Total Stake: 3.01 units

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