2022 Masters Odds, Preview: Find Value at Augusta With Xander Schauffele, Will Zalatoris, More
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Xander Schauffele.
Click arrow to expand 2022 Masters odds via BetMGM
2022 Masters Odds
|Si Woo Kim||+8000|
|Harold Varner III||+15000|
|Erik van Rooyen||+20000|
|Min Woo Lee||+30000|
|Jose Maria Olazabal||+250000|
The week the golf world waits for all year is upon us.
The Masters has an extra layer of anticipations this week revolving around Tiger Woods obviously. I won’t get into it much other than books had him even money late last year to play in any major in 2022, so that’s where my money went. Augusta seemed like it may be tough, but it appears he’s doing everything he can to give it a go.
Most of my Masters bets have already been made to maximize value. Shane Lowry was available at twice his current price earlier in the year, as were the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Smith. This is a look at the current numbers and where value lies for you, who is looking to build their card right now.
Let’s check out the current numbers at Augusta National.
Not much new to report about Augusta National. Reports are they’ll lengthen No. 11 and No. 15 bringing the total distance to a little over 7,500 yards for a par 72.
Overall, this place tends to benefit the longer hitters, but it is the approach game that usually stands out for the winners. The long irons are particularly important in order to set up easy birdie chances on the par 5s. Another note about Augusta is that scrambling from around the greens has more value than putting this week.
We saw both of these factors come into play last year during Hideki Matsuyama’s run to the title. He’s been known for quite awhile as one of the best iron players, and while the putting has always been an issue, his touch around the greens with the wedges has been a strength throughout his career as well.
Jon Rahm opens up at the top of the board and can be found in the +1000 range. He’s finished inside the top-10 four straight years and has been playing as well as anyone from tee-to-green. The greens at Augusta usually aren’t the best place to find that putting stroke, but the rest of the game has been in good shape.
Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson are next in line at around +1400, and I imagine JT will be the most popular play from this range. The ball-striking has been in good shape, racking up top 10s at Valspar, Genesis and the Waste Management in his prep for the Masters. He’s played well here, as well, finishing in the top-25 five straight years. But so far, he’s never really been in contention yet to win.
The 2020 champ DJ had looked a bit lost, but a great final round at THE PLAYERS, coupled with a deep run in the Match Play, have bettors willing to take a look at him again.
Cameron Smith and Scottie Scheffler at +1600 are the big movers up the board from the start of the year. Both entered 2022 with +4000 readily available, but they’ve won a combined five times this year and are entering with form that rivals anyone. Smith has had the better run here, finishing top 10 in three of the last four years. But Scheffler has been solid in his own right, finishing in the top 20 in both of his starts.
We’ve got the group of multiple major winners next with Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka and Collin Morikawa all coming in at around +1800. McIlroy and Koepka have come close to winning before, while Morikawa is still figuring out Augusta. But an improvement to 18th in 2021 shows Morikawa is on the right track to here, as well.
Of the group Koepka and McIlroy have been playing the best of late, but Morikawa did finish second at Riviera earlier in the year, and that course has a long history of leading to success at the Masters.
Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland and Patrick Cantlay make up the +2000s group. I imagine Spieth will get a lot of attention this week after a strong week of ball striking at Valero, but of the group, I’m drawn to Xander. I’ll be waiting for a bigger number than +2200, but two top three finishes here to with a series of top 20 finishes this year shows the game could be ready.
My hope for the drift comes from Schauffele fatigue. A lot of people have been waiting for that win to come for awhile, and unless you backed him at the Olympics or in the Fedex Cup (no starting strokes) prop market, he’s come up empty for two years now.
My card is pretty full from bets throughout the year (Shane Lowry, Louis Oosthuizen and Joaquin Niemann), but I’ll try to give a fresh look here.
I wouldn’t play Louis at his current 40s, he was double that last year when I jumped in, and I’m not really a big Louis guy to begin with. It was mostly just a numbers play from 10 months ago. Lowry and Niemann are much more interesting now.
I expect Lowry to be popular and show well in a lot of the stat models, so his +5000s number could dip as people look for a someone in this range to pair with their player at the top. Niemann was a guy I backed off the Riviera win. He hasn’t done a lot since, and the number I got (+6600) is still out there.
Other guys in the mid-tier range that could draw interest are Sam Burns (+4000) and Will Zalatoris (+3500). Burns would probably be on a lot of cards this week if it was for the dreaded first-timer’s curse, but he’s won three times in the last year and is fresh off the Valspar title.
Zalatoris was runner up in his debut last year and nearly locked up his first win at Torrey Pines a couple months ago. The putter looked good at match play and that’s always been the hold up for him, so if he’s good on the greens this week, he could duplicate what Spieth did and go second and then first in his first two appearances.
My only play in this range is Harris English at 125-1, which isn’t looking great since he withdrew following a hip injury.
This also serves as a reminder that the vast majority of these bets will stand regardless of if a guy plays or not if they’re made before the week of the tournament. Many books might make an exception for the Tiger Woods situation to avoid the bad publicity of keeping the money following a withdraw, but the house rules are pretty clear in most cases. If you bet a guy in these majors ahead of time and they don’t play, it’s a loss.
Of the current longshots, Thomas Pieters is worth a look at 100-1. Pieters played really well at match play and just ran into some guys who were playing even better that day. But he’s finished fourth here before and has a win on the DP World Tour earlier in the year, so he could be a surprise this week that finishes well and cashes a place bet.
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