2022 Sony Open Betting Preview: Odds & 5 Picks, Highlighted by Kevin Kisner & Seamus Power
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Kisner
- The PGA TOUR gets its first full-field event of the season in at the Sony Open this week.
- Waialae Country Club will be a tougher test than players had last week in Maui, where Cameron Smith won at 34-under.
- Joshua Perry breaks down his betting card for Honolulu below.
Click for full Sony Open odds as of Tuesday night via PointsBet.
|Charles Howell III||+3300|
|Erik van Rooyen||+6000|
|Si Woo Kim||+6000|
|Andrew D. Putnam||+17500|
|Dawie van der Walt||+25000|
|Hao Tong Li||+30000|
|Bo Van Pelt||+50000|
Kapalua was left defenseless in the 2022 PGA Tour opener and the players took full advantage.
It’s not too often your three bets will shoot a combined 59-under par and not scare cashing a ticket, but that’s where we were last week with Cameron Smith setting a new scoring record at 34-under par.
Now on to the Sony Open, where most people are aware of the angle this week. The winner will usually come from the group who just finished up at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Whether those four rounds help them get back into rhythm or they just happen to be better than the rest of the field because they’re coming off a win in the season prior, they definitely have a edge here.
Length off the tee doesn’t play too much of a factor at Waialae Country Club, which measures just over 7,000 yards for a par 70. We’ve had shorter, inaccurate drivers like Smith, Patton Kizzire and Fabian Gomez come out on top in recent years. It’s really a second-shot golf course where a player who can get hot putting on Bermuda greens will come out on top.
It’s a vastly different course than Kapalua, which is more of a bomber’s paradise and favors strength from tee to green. Because of that, you shouldn’t just look at players who finished strong last week.
We saw that with a player like Kevin Na last year. He closed with a 79 and isn’t really the best fit for Kapalua, but shaking off that competitive rust is important for this week heading to a course that better suits his style of play.
It tends to play pretty easy by TOUR standards unless the wind picks up. In five of the last six years, the winner needed to reach at least 20-under.
Smith opens at the top of the odds at +1100 fresh off the victory last week. Couple that with a win here in 2020 and it’s easy to see why he’s getting respect from the books this week.
Webb Simpson and Sungjae Im are next in line at +1600 after the withdraw of Bryson DeChambeau. Simpson is a strong fit here as well despite not playing last week and Im will likely be a popular selection in this range after a solid eighth-place finish last week where he gained strokes across the board.
Hideki Matsuyama would be where I’d look that if you want to back a favorite at +1800. He was fifth in approach last week and the other four players ahead of him aren’t in the field this week. He wasn’t as good of the tee as usual and that held him back. But with this course, that isn’t as big of a factor.
I’ll start my card with Kevin Kisner at +3500 on DraftKings. Kisner played about as well as he can on a course with the length of Kapalua. He really struggled toward the end of 2021 with the approach. But his irons were back to normal last week and heading to a course that should fit his game, he’s worth a look at this price.
We’ll also go back to Seamus Power at +5000 on bet365. Power was on the card last week and played well to finish in 15th. He’ll be a common selection in this range. He’s backed up a hot summer with a good start to the 2021-22 season with four top 15s in his last five starts.
I’ll also play Joel Dahmen at +7500 on FanDuel. The ball striking was solid last week, but he lost a little more than five strokes with the short game. He’s another player who has been riding consistent form of late, missing just one cut since the start of June.
We’ll open with Stewart Cink here at 100-1 on bet365. Cink finished 19th a year ago here after playing the TOC. This time, he played much better at the TOC, finishing 21st compared to 31st and had a strong ball-striking week. The putter let him down, but he’s usually above-average on Bermuda with that club, so he could be primed to bounce back this week.
I’ll finish up here with Branden Grace at 110/1 on bet365. Grace had a bad third round where he lost almost five strokes with the approach that threw off his numbers for the week. But he led the field with the irons in the opening and bounced back Sunday with a strong ball striking day to close out the event. At the price, I’ll take a look here at a guy who has his other two PGA Tour wins on coastal tracks.
The Sony Card
- Kevin Kisner +3500 (.94 units)
- Seamus Power +5000 (.66 units)
- Joel Dahmen +7500 (.44 units)
- Stewart Cink +10000 (.33 units)
- Branden Grace +11000 (.3 units)
Total Stake: 2.67 units