Updated 2022 Valero Texas Open Odds, Picks, Predictions: 5 Players Who Fit TPC San Antonio

Updated 2022 Valero Texas Open Odds, Picks, Predictions: 5 Players Who Fit TPC San Antonio article feature image

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Si Woo Kim.

Click arrow to expand 2022 Valero Texas Open odds via PointsBet

2022 Valero Texas Open Odds

Rory McIlroy+900
Jordan Spieth+1600
Corey Conners+1800
Hideki Matsuyama+2000
Chris Kirk+2500
Gary Woodland+2500
Bryson DeChambeau+2800
Si Woo Kim+2800
Adam Hadwin+3300
Tony Finau+3300
Maverick McNealy+3500
Keegan Bradley+4000
Davis Riley+4000
Jason Day+5000
Jhonattan Vegas+5000
Kevin Streelman+5000
Luke List+5500
Mito Guillermo Pereira+6000
Patton Kizzire+6000
Rickie Fowler+6000
Russell Knox+6600
Brendan Steele+7000
Charley Hoffman+7000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee+7000
Robert MacIntyre+7000
Ryan Palmer+7000
Sahith Theegala+7000
Doug Ghim+7500
Denny McCarthy+8000
Matt Kuchar+8000
Rasmus Højgaard+8000
Charles Howell III+9000
Ian Poulter+9000
Lanto Griffin+9000
Matthew NeSmith+9000
Alex Smalley+10000
Dylan Frittelli+10000
Martin Laird+10000
Matt Jones+10000
Nick Taylor+10000
Pat Perez+10000
Scott Stallings+10000
Takumi Kanaya+10000
Taylor Moore+10000
Troy Merritt+10000
Peter Uihlein+10000
Anirban Lahiri+12500
Beau Hossler+12500
Branden Grace+12500
Brian Stuard+12500
Chad Ramey+12500
Cheng-Tsung Pan+12500
David Lipsky+12500
J. J. Spaun+12500
Kramer Hickok+12500
Lee Westwood+12500
Lucas Glover+12500
Matthias Schwab+12500
Richard Bland+12500
Adam Long+15000
Andrew D. Putnam+15000
Brendon Todd+15000
Doc Redman+15000
Greyson Sigg+15000
Joseph Bramlett+15000
Min Woo Lee+15000
Nate Lashley+15000
Sam Ryder+15000
Vincent Whaley+15000
Wyndham Clark+15000
Cameron Champ+17500
Danny Lee+17500
Harry Higgs+17500
Aaron Rai+20000
Adam Schenk+20000
Adam Svensson+20000
Andrew Novak+20000
Austin Smotherman+20000
Brandon Hagy+20000
Chez Reavie+20000
Hank Lebioda+20000
Hayden Buckley+20000
Hudson Swafford+20000
Jimmy Walker+20000
JT Poston+20000
Kevin Chappell+20000
Kevin Tway+20000
Kyle Stanley+20000
Lee Hodges+20000
Nick Hardy+20000
Patrick Rodgers+20000
Robert Streb+20000
Tyler Duncan+20000
Zach Johnson+20000
Brandt Snedeker+25000
Garrick Higgo+25000
Graeme McDowell+25000
Henrik Stenson+25000
John Huh+25000
Justin Lower+25000
Luke Donald+25000
Matt Wallace+25000
Max McGreevy+25000
Peter Malnati+25000
Ryan Brehm+25000
Stephan Jaeger+25000
Trey Mullinax+25000
Ben Kohles+30000
Ben Martin+30000
Bill Haas+30000
Brice Garnett+30000
Camilo Villegas+30000
Logan McAllister+30000
Nick Watney+30000
Richy Werenski+30000
Roger Sloan+30000
Seung-yul Noh+30000
Sung Kang+30000
Jared Wolfe+30000
Chesson Hadley+35000
Dylan Wu+35000
Guido Migliozzi+35000
James Hahn+35000
Paul Barjon+35000
Aaron Baddeley+35000
Austin Cook+50000
Ben Kern+50000
Bronson Burgoon+50000
Curtis Thompson+50000
David Skinns+50000
Dawie van der Walt+50000
Henrik Norlander+50000
Jim Herman+50000
Jonas Blixt+50000
Kelly Kraft+50000
Ludvig Aberg+50000
Martin Trainer+50000
Michael Gligic+50000
Seth Reeves+50000
William McGirt+50000
Shawn Stefani+50000
Jake Kevorkian+50000
Samuel Saunders+50000
Get up to $2,200 FREE to bet the Valero Texas Open.

As players and fans gear up for the Masters, the PGA TOUR stays in Texas following the Match Play for the Valero Texas Open.

TPC San Antonio is a 7,494 yards par 72 and features Bermuda grass greens.  The main defense of the course is weather. The course can play pretty tough if the winds pick up, otherwise expect the winner to be in the 20-under range.

There are 140 golfers in the field this week. The field is what you would expect this week, with many golfers sitting out prior to the Masters. A few stars have made the trip to make sure their game is in tip-top shape, including Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama and Bryson DeChambeau.

Past Winners at TPC San Antonio

  • 2021: Jordan Spieth (-18)
  • 2019: Corey Conners (-20)
  • 2018: Andrew Landry (-17)
  • 2017: Kevin Chappel (-12)
  • 2016: Charley Hoffman (-12)
  • 2015: Jimmy Walker (-11)

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5 Key Stats For TPC San Antonio

Let's take a look at five key metrics at TPC San Antonio to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is the best measure of current form. With plenty on the line this week golfers will be looking to either punch a ticket to Augusta, or round into great form heading into the Masters, so this metric should tell us a pretty good story about where a player is heading to San Antonio.

Jordan Spieth gained 7.4 strokes on approach last year, which propelled him to victory.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Luke Donald (+25.2) (+16000)
  2. Hideki Matsuyama (+19.9) (+1800)
  3. Luke List (+19.6) (+9000)
  4. Russell Knox (+17.8) (+8000)
  5. Patton Kizzire (16.2)(+7500)

2. Opportunities Gained

Scores at TPC San Antonio can get pretty low depending on the wind. If conditions are calm, it may turn into a bit of a birdie-fest. In that case, golfers who give themselves the most chances at birdies will be in the driver's seat.

Opportunities Gained Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Luke List (+25.4) (+9000)
  2. Rory McIlroy (+24.0) (+800)
  3. Keegan Bradley (+21.7) (+4000)
  4. Hideki Matsuyama (+20.2) (+1800)
  5. Aaron Rai (+20.0) (+17500)

3. Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

Off-the-Tee is statistically more important at TPC San Antonio than TOUR average. Prior to Jordan Spieth's victory last year, the previous four winners of the Valero Texas Open have ranked eighth, fourth, ninth and fourth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee for the week. Hitting the ball long and straight will be a major factor this week.

SG: OTT over past 24 rounds:

  1. Bryson DeChambeau (+21.6) (+2500)
  2. Brendan Steele (+19.6) (+10000)
  3. Rory McIlroy (+18.2) (+800)
  4. Luke List (+15.9) (+9000)
  5. Keegan Bradley (+15.2) (+4000)

    Gregory Shamus, Getty Images. Pictured: Brendan Steele

4. Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking

Ball-striking combines off-the-tee and approach. Golfers coming into the week striking it well from tee-to-green will be in a great spot to compete this week.

The rough can be penal at times around TPC San Antonio, so driving accuracy is important. At over 7,400 yards, the course isn't short so the driving distance aspect of this stat will be a factor, as well.

SG: BS Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Luke List (+35.5) (+9000)
  2. Keegan Bradley (+30.2) (+4000)
  3. Corey Conners (+28.4) (+2000)
  4. Hideki Matsuyama (+27.5) (+1800)
  5. Russell Knox (+25.5) (+4000)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda grass)

While a hot putter is always tough to predict, it is still important to factor Bermuda grass putting into the stat model this week.

The three most recent winners (Landry, Conners and Spieth) all prefer to putt on Bermuda statistically. A combination of iron play and putting were the recipe for these golfers en route to their respective victories.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda grass) over past 24 rounds

  1. Martin Trainer (+27.5) (+30000)
  2. Chesson Hadley (+18.1) (+25000)
  3. Adam Hadwin (+16.7) (+3500)
  4. Brendon Todd (+15.6) (+16000)
  5. Adam Long (+15.0) (+25000)

The Valero Texas Open Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG:BS (19%), SG: OTT (20%), SG: Putting Bermudagrass (14%) and Opportunities Gained (20%)

  1. Hideki Matsuyama (+1800)
  2. Keegan Bradley (+4000)
  3. Corey Conners (+2000)
  4. Chris Kirk (+6000)
  5. Jhonattan Vegas (+5000)
  6. Luke List (+9000)
  7. Bryson DeChambeau (+2500)
  8. Adam Hadwin (+3500)
  9. J.J. Spaun (+16000)
  10. Austin Smotherman (+20000)
Get up to $1,100 back if your Si Woo Kim bet loses.

2022 Valero Texas Open Best Bets

Si Woo Kim (+3500)

Although this isn’t a Pete Dye track, which is Si Woo’s specialty, he has had success at TPC San Antonio in the past. Kim finished 23rd last year and fourth in 2019. As a golfer who resides in the Dallas area, there’s reason to believe he could be very comfortable playing in the Lone Star State.

In his past four stroke-play events, the 26-year-old hasn't finished worse than 26th and boasts two 11th-place finishes in that timeframe. We also saw Kim play extremely well last week at the WGC-Dell Match Play, where he ranked fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Total.

The results in Austin were encouraging, as well. Kim defeated Christian Bezuidenhout 6 & 4 and disposed of Daniel Berger 2 up before losing on the 18th hole to Tyrrell Hatton on Friday. That may be a blessing in disguise for Kim, since he didn’t have to play 18-36 more holes over the weekend. He now comes into the Texas Open both rested and playing well.

On a card with more longshots, it makes sense to have a golfer with win equity on the card. And with three PGA TOUR victories before his 27th birthday, Si Woo certainly provides that.

Tony Finau (+4500)

This is strictly a value play. Someone with Finau's talent in relation to where he is on the oddsboard in such a weak field simply doesn’t add up.

Since his win at last year’s Northern Trust, Finau is yet to crack the top 10 in any event. While that is what has created his downward slide in price, there are signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form. In late February, Finau gained 6.6 strokes on approach at the Genesis, which is an encouraging sign. In his next start at THE PLAYERS he wasn’t very good, but because of the unbalanced weather draw it wouldn’t be wise to read too much into that performance.

Last week at the Match Play, Finau ranked 13th in Strokes Gained: Total, despite not making it out of the group stage. In his final matchup, he disposed of Xander Schauffele quite easily. In that match, he made eight birdies, which is another sign that he could be rounding into form.

Finau has a third-place finish here back in 2017, so he’s shown that the course suits him if he's playing well. This is a week where I don’t expect to bet anyone near the top of the board, so Finau at a stellar price is a good fit on the card.

Bet Tony Finau at BetMGM and get a risk-free bet up to $1,000.

Kevin Streelman (+6500)

The debate between course history and recent form will always be an interesting one. Luckily for Streelman’s chances at the Valero Texas Open, he has both.

Streelman comes into the week coming off of three top-22 finishes in his past four starts. Most recently, the two-time TOUR winner finished seventh at the Valspar Championship. At Copperhead, he gained 7.4 strokes from tee-to-green and was solid in all statistical categories.

In terms of his play at TPC San Antonio, Streelman has also excelled. He has top ten finishes (eighth and sixth) in his past two trips to the course. While not a great putter, his results on Bermuda grass have been much better than other surfaces. He rolled it well in the Florida swing, gaining an average of 2.2 strokes putting on the field per event.

If Streelman can catch a hot putter this week in Texas, he’s certainly the type to do well at this event. His best number, as of Tuesday morning, is at DraftKings.

Patton Kizzire (+7000)

Last season, we saw Patton Kizzire get extremely hot in any event taking place in Texas. He finished third at the Charles Schwab Challenge, third at the Byron Nelson and ninth at the Valero Texas Open. At this event last year, the 36-year-old gained 8.1 strokes on approach, which was the most he’s ever gained in his career.

Kizzire's Texas history alone is plenty of reason to bet him at this price, but he also comes into the week playing some pretty solid golf. In the field, Kizzire ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach in his past 24 rounds. In his past three events during the TOUR’s Florida swing, he finished 32nd at API, 22nd at THE PLAYERS and 33rd at Valspar consecutively.

The field this week at TPC San Antonio will be considerably weaker than those aforementioned tournaments, which will give Kizzire a shot to notch his first PGA TOUR win since the 2018 Sony Open.

Get up to $2,200 FREE to bet the Valero Texas Open.

Brendan Steele (+8000)

My favorite bet on the board this week is Brendan Steele. In his past two starts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS, Steele has gained 10.1 and 9.5 strokes from tee-to-green. He ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in his past 24 rounds, which has been statistically extremely important at this event in the past.

Steele’s combination of both distance and accuracy with the driver make him an ideal course fit at TPC San Antonio. In his past five starts, he’s gained an average of 9.7 strokes on the field in driving distance and 2.9 strokes on the field in driving accuracy.

The main concern with Steele is always the putter. With that being said, when evaluating golfers who putt poorly overall, it is important to target the ones who are capable of having “spike” putting weeks. The 38-year-old is a perfect example of this.

Despite losing strokes putting to the field in 25 of his past 40 events, he has nine tournaments where he gained more than 4.0 strokes with the putter. To win a golf tournament, Steele doesn’t need to be a great putter; he needs to have one great putting week. The numbers prove that he is more than capable of doing that.

Steele has three PGA TOUR victories on his resume. Of the three, two have come at the same course (Safeway Open 2016 and 2017). This shows me that Steele is a golfer who continuously plays well on the same tracks and is a true “horses for courses” type of golfer.

As for Steele’s third PGA TOUR victory? You guessed it: the Valero Texas Open back in 2011. If he can win the Safeway twice, there’s no reason he can’t run it back this week at TPC San Antonio when he is in excellent form.

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