Updated 2022 Valero Texas Open Odds, Picks, Predictions: 5 Players Who Fit TPC San Antonio

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As players and fans gear up for the Masters, the PGA TOUR stays in Texas following the Match Play for the Valero Texas Open.

TPC San Antonio is a 7,494 yards par 72 and features Bermuda grass greens.  The main defense of the course is weather. The course can play pretty tough if the winds pick up, otherwise expect the winner to be in the 20-under range.

There are 140 golfers in the field this week. The field is what you would expect this week, with many golfers sitting out prior to the Masters. A few stars have made the trip to make sure their game is in tip-top shape, including Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama and Bryson DeChambeau.

Past Winners at TPC San Antonio

• 2021: Jordan Spieth (-18)
• 2019: Corey Conners (-20)
• 2018: Andrew Landry (-17)
• 2017: Kevin Chappel (-12)
• 2016: Charley Hoffman (-12)
• 2015: Jimmy Walker (-11)

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5 Key Stats For TPC San Antonio

Let's take a look at five key metrics at TPC San Antonio to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach is the best measure of current form. With plenty on the line this week golfers will be looking to either punch a ticket to Augusta, or round into great form heading into the Masters, so this metric should tell us a pretty good story about where a player is heading to San Antonio.

Jordan Spieth gained 7.4 strokes on approach last year, which propelled him to victory.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Luke Donald (+25.2) (+16000)
2. Hideki Matsuyama (+19.9) (+1800)
3. Luke List (+19.6) (+9000)
4. Russell Knox (+17.8) (+8000)
5. Patton Kizzire (16.2)(+7500)

2. Opportunities Gained

Scores at TPC San Antonio can get pretty low depending on the wind. If conditions are calm, it may turn into a bit of a birdie-fest. In that case, golfers who give themselves the most chances at birdies will be in the driver's seat.

Opportunities Gained Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Luke List (+25.4) (+9000)
2. Rory McIlroy (+24.0) (+800)
3. Keegan Bradley (+21.7) (+4000)
4. Hideki Matsuyama (+20.2) (+1800)
5. Aaron Rai (+20.0) (+17500)

3. Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee

Off-the-Tee is statistically more important at TPC San Antonio than TOUR average. Prior to Jordan Spieth's victory last year, the previous four winners of the Valero Texas Open have ranked eighth, fourth, ninth and fourth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee for the week. Hitting the ball long and straight will be a major factor this week.

SG: OTT over past 24 rounds:

1. Bryson DeChambeau (+21.6) (+2500)
2. Brendan Steele (+19.6) (+10000)
3. Rory McIlroy (+18.2) (+800)
4. Luke List (+15.9) (+9000)
5. Keegan Bradley (+15.2) (+4000)

4. Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking

Ball-striking combines off-the-tee and approach. Golfers coming into the week striking it well from tee-to-green will be in a great spot to compete this week.

The rough can be penal at times around TPC San Antonio, so driving accuracy is important. At over 7,400 yards, the course isn't short so the driving distance aspect of this stat will be a factor, as well.

SG: BS Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Luke List (+35.5) (+9000)
2. Keegan Bradley (+30.2) (+4000)
3. Corey Conners (+28.4) (+2000)
4. Hideki Matsuyama (+27.5) (+1800)
5. Russell Knox (+25.5) (+4000)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda grass)

While a hot putter is always tough to predict, it is still important to factor Bermuda grass putting into the stat model this week.

The three most recent winners (Landry, Conners and Spieth) all prefer to putt on Bermuda statistically. A combination of iron play and putting were the recipe for these golfers en route to their respective victories.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda grass) over past 24 rounds

1. Martin Trainer (+27.5) (+30000)
2. Chesson Hadley (+18.1) (+25000)
3. Adam Hadwin (+16.7) (+3500)
4. Brendon Todd (+15.6) (+16000)
5. Adam Long (+15.0) (+25000)

The Valero Texas Open Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG:BS (19%), SG: OTT (20%), SG: Putting Bermudagrass (14%) and Opportunities Gained (20%)

1. Hideki Matsuyama (+1800)
2. Keegan Bradley (+4000)
3. Corey Conners (+2000)
4. Chris Kirk (+6000)
5. Jhonattan Vegas (+5000)
6. Luke List (+9000)
7. Bryson DeChambeau (+2500)
8. Adam Hadwin (+3500)
9. J.J. Spaun (+16000)
10. Austin Smotherman (+20000)

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2022 Valero Texas Open Best Bets

Si Woo Kim (+3500)

Although this isn’t a Pete Dye track, which is Si Woo’s specialty, he has had success at TPC San Antonio in the past. Kim finished 23rd last year and fourth in 2019. As a golfer who resides in the Dallas area, there’s reason to believe he could be very comfortable playing in the Lone Star State.

In his past four stroke-play events, the 26-year-old hasn't finished worse than 26th and boasts two 11th-place finishes in that timeframe. We also saw Kim play extremely well last week at the WGC-Dell Match Play, where he ranked fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Total.

The results in Austin were encouraging, as well. Kim defeated Christian Bezuidenhout 6 & 4 and disposed of Daniel Berger 2 up before losing on the 18th hole to Tyrrell Hatton on Friday. That may be a blessing in disguise for Kim, since he didn’t have to play 18-36 more holes over the weekend. He now comes into the Texas Open both rested and playing well.

On a card with more longshots, it makes sense to have a golfer with win equity on the card. And with three PGA TOUR victories before his 27th birthday, Si Woo certainly provides that.

Tony Finau (+4500)

This is strictly a value play. Someone with Finau's talent in relation to where he is on the oddsboard in such a weak field simply doesn’t add up.

Since his win at last year’s Northern Trust, Finau is yet to crack the top 10 in any event. While that is what has created his downward slide in price, there are signs pointing to the 32-year-old returning to form. In late February, Finau gained 6.6 strokes on approach at the Genesis, which is an encouraging sign. In his next start at THE PLAYERS he wasn’t very good, but because of the unbalanced weather draw it wouldn’t be wise to read too much into that performance.

Last week at the Match Play, Finau ranked 13th in Strokes Gained: Total, despite not making it out of the group stage. In his final matchup, he disposed of Xander Schauffele quite easily. In that match, he made eight birdies, which is another sign that he could be rounding into form.

Finau has a third-place finish here back in 2017, so he’s shown that the course suits him if he's playing well. This is a week where I don’t expect to bet anyone near the top of the board, so Finau at a stellar price is a good fit on the card.

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Kevin Streelman (+6500)

The debate between course history and recent form will always be an interesting one. Luckily for Streelman’s chances at the Valero Texas Open, he has both.

Streelman comes into the week coming off of three top-22 finishes in his past four starts. Most recently, the two-time TOUR winner finished seventh at the Valspar Championship. At Copperhead, he gained 7.4 strokes from tee-to-green and was solid in all statistical categories.

In terms of his play at TPC San Antonio, Streelman has also excelled. He has top ten finishes (eighth and sixth) in his past two trips to the course. While not a great putter, his results on Bermuda grass have been much better than other surfaces. He rolled it well in the Florida swing, gaining an average of 2.2 strokes putting on the field per event.

If Streelman can catch a hot putter this week in Texas, he’s certainly the type to do well at this event. His best number, as of Tuesday morning, is at DraftKings.

Patton Kizzire (+7000)

Last season, we saw Patton Kizzire get extremely hot in any event taking place in Texas. He finished third at the Charles Schwab Challenge, third at the Byron Nelson and ninth at the Valero Texas Open. At this event last year, the 36-year-old gained 8.1 strokes on approach, which was the most he’s ever gained in his career.

Kizzire's Texas history alone is plenty of reason to bet him at this price, but he also comes into the week playing some pretty solid golf. In the field, Kizzire ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach in his past 24 rounds. In his past three events during the TOUR’s Florida swing, he finished 32nd at API, 22nd at THE PLAYERS and 33rd at Valspar consecutively.

The field this week at TPC San Antonio will be considerably weaker than those aforementioned tournaments, which will give Kizzire a shot to notch his first PGA TOUR win since the 2018 Sony Open.

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Brendan Steele (+8000)

My favorite bet on the board this week is Brendan Steele. In his past two starts at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS, Steele has gained 10.1 and 9.5 strokes from tee-to-green. He ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee in his past 24 rounds, which has been statistically extremely important at this event in the past.

Steele’s combination of both distance and accuracy with the driver make him an ideal course fit at TPC San Antonio. In his past five starts, he’s gained an average of 9.7 strokes on the field in driving distance and 2.9 strokes on the field in driving accuracy.

The main concern with Steele is always the putter. With that being said, when evaluating golfers who putt poorly overall, it is important to target the ones who are capable of having “spike” putting weeks. The 38-year-old is a perfect example of this.

Despite losing strokes putting to the field in 25 of his past 40 events, he has nine tournaments where he gained more than 4.0 strokes with the putter. To win a golf tournament, Steele doesn’t need to be a great putter; he needs to have one great putting week. The numbers prove that he is more than capable of doing that.

Steele has three PGA TOUR victories on his resume. Of the three, two have come at the same course (Safeway Open 2016 and 2017). This shows me that Steele is a golfer who continuously plays well on the same tracks and is a true “horses for courses” type of golfer.

As for Steele’s third PGA TOUR victory? You guessed it: the Valero Texas Open back in 2011. If he can win the Safeway twice, there’s no reason he can’t run it back this week at TPC San Antonio when he is in excellent form.

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