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2022 Valspar Championship Odds, Preview: 4 Outright Picks Who Fit Innisbrook Well

2022 Valspar Championship Odds, Preview: 4 Outright Picks Who Fit Innisbrook Well article feature image
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Luke Walker/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Fitzpatrick.

Click arrow to expand 2022 Valspar Championship odds via PointsBet

2022 Valspar Championship Odds

Golfer Odds
Justin Thomas +1000
Viktor Hovland +1000
Collin Morikawa +1200
Dustin Johnson +1600
Xander Schauffele +2000
Louis Oosthuizen +2200
Sam Burns +2200
Tyrrell Hatton +2200
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2500
Shane Lowry +2500
Abraham Ancer +3000
Brooks Koepka +3500
Jason Kokrak +3500
Gary Woodland +4000
Keegan Bradley +4000
Tommy Fleetwood +4000
Alexander Noren +5000
Bubba Watson +5000
Jason Day +5000
Webb Simpson +5000
Adam Hadwin +6000
Cameron Tringale +6000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000
Kevin Kisner +6000
Russell Knox +6000
Brian Harman +7000
Harold Varner III +7000
Mackenzie Hughes +7000
Aaron Wise +7500
Denny McCarthy +8000
Bernd Wiesberger +9000
Francesco Molinari +10000
Jhonattan Vegas +10000
Lanto Griffin +10000
Matthias Schwab +10000
Mito Guillermo Pereira +10000
Adam Svensson +12500
Charley Hoffman +12500
Cheng-Tsung Pan +12500
Davis Riley +12500
Doc Redman +12500
Kevin Streelman +12500
Patton Kizzire +12500
Alex Smalley +15000
Branden Grace +15000
Brendon Todd +15000
Carlos Ortiz +15000
Danny Willett +15000
Emiliano Grillo +15000
Joel Dahmen +15000
Martin Kaymer +15000
Martin Laird +15000
Matt Kuchar +15000
Nick Taylor +15000
Pat Perez +15000
Sahith Theegala +15000
Sam Ryder +15000
Scott Stallings +15000
Taylor Moore +15000
Troy Merritt +15000
Zach Johnson +15000
Adam Long +20000
Andrew D. Putnam +20000
Brian Stuard +20000
Chad Ramey +20000
Chez Reavie +20000
Graeme McDowell +20000
Greyson Sigg +20000
Lee Hodges +20000
Matthew NeSmith +20000
Michael Thompson +20000
Nate Lashley +20000
Stewart Cink +20000
Vaughn Taylor +20000
Wyndham Clark +20000
John Huh +20000
David Lipsky +20000
Adam Schenk +25000
Danny Lee +25000
Hank Lebioda +25000
Hayden Buckley +25000
Henrik Stenson +25000
J. J. Spaun +25000
JT Poston +25000
Kramer Hickok +25000
Kyle Stanley +25000
Matt Wallace +25000
Sean O’Hair +25000
Sung Kang +25000
Trey Mullinax +25000
Vincent Whaley +25000
Austin Smotherman +25000
Andrew Landry +30000
Cameron Percy +30000
Charl Schwartzel +30000
Harry Higgs +30000
Jim Herman +30000
Joseph Bramlett +30000
Peter Malnati +30000
Ryan Brehm +30000
Stephan Jaeger +30000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +30000
Blake Kennedy +30000
Andrew McCain +30000
Andrew Novak +30000
Kurt Kitayama +30000
Bronson Burgoon +30000
Bill Haas +35000
Brandon Wu +35000
Chun-an Yu, +35000
Henrik Norlander +35000
James Hahn +35000
Luke Donald +35000
Scott Piercy +35000
Tyler Duncan +35000
Brice Garnett +40000
Callum Tarren +40000
Chesson Hadley +40000
Jimmy Walker +40000
Max McGreevy +40000
Roger Sloan +40000
Wesley Bryan +40000
Dylan Wu +40000
Brandon Hagy +50000
Brian Gay +50000
Curtis Thompson +50000
Davis Love III +50000
Jonas Blixt +50000
Kelly Kraft +50000
Mark Hensby +50000
Martin Trainer +50000
Omar Uresti +50000
Richy Werenski +50000
Robert Streb +50000
Seung-yul Noh +50000
Tommy Gainey +50000
William McGirt +50000
Luke Guthrie +50000
Paul Barjon +50000
Seth Reeves +50000
Alex Fitzpatrick +50000
Greg Koch +50000
Jackson Suber +50000
Austin Cook +50000
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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2022 Valspar Championship. Last week, rain and thunderstorms prevented the PLAYERS Championship from being completed on time, so it will be important to monitor how that will impact the Valspar in the coming days.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermuda-grass greens. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 15, 16 and 17 — also known as the “snake pit” — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. Some notable players in the mix are Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Paul Casey, Xander Schauffele and Matt Fitzpatrick.

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

  • 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
  • 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
  • 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
  • 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
  • 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

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5 Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course. Historically, great iron players have done really well here as evidenced by Paul Casey’s back-to-back wins in 2018 and 2019.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Russell Knox (+25.0) (+7000)
  2. Viktor Hovland (+21.0) (+1100)
  3. Justin Thomas (+20.3) (+900)
  4. Paul Casey (+19.4) (+2200)
  5. Cameron Percy (+17.9) (+3500)

2. Good Drives Gained

The long hitters are a bit limited here due to the tree lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drives Gained Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Martin Laird (+35.2) (+12500) 
  2. Russell Knox (+30.2) (+7000)
  3. Alex Smalley (+27.3) (+15000)
  4. Brian Stuard (+26.6) (+12500)
  5. Matthew NeSmith (+23.8) (+17500)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking over past 24 rounds:

  1. Viktor Hovland (+34.6) (+1100)
  2. Russell Knox (+33.1) (+7000)
  3. Justin Thomas (+30.7) (+900)
  4. Jhonattan Vegas (+23.0) (+9000)
  5. Bubba Watson (+22.5) (+7000)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the winner likely to be in the single digits under par, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Michael Thompson (+21.0) (+25000)
  2. Mito Pereira (+18.7) (+12500)
  3. Nick Taylor (+17.8) (+12500)
  4. Shane Lowry (+16.9) (+2200)
  5. Christian Bezuidenhout (+16.4) (+6600)

5. Greens in Regulation Gained

I am adding GIR: Gained to the model to further include golfers who can control the golf ball.  Consistently hitting fairways and greens will provide golfers with the best chance of winning this week.

Greens in Regulation: Gained over past 24 rounds

  1. Russell Knox (+36.6) (+7000)
  2. Jhonattan Vegas (+27.1) (+9000)
  3. Adam Svensson (+25.0) (+16000)
  4. Paul Casey (+22.3) (+2200)
  5. Bubba Watson (+20.3) (+7000)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives Gained (20%), SG: BS (18.7%), Bogeys Avoided (18.7%) and GIR Gained (18.7%).

  1. Russell Knox (+7000)
  2. Martin Laird (+12500)
  3. Jhonattan Vegas (+9000)
  4. Bubba Watson (+7000)
  5. Viktor Hovland (+1100)
  6. Justin Thomas (+900)
  7. Patton Kizzire (+11000)
  8. Paul Casey (+2200)
  9. Collin Morikawa (+1100)
  10. Adam Hadwin (+6600)
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Matt Fitzpatrick (+2500)

Prior to the PLAYERS Championship, Matt Fitzpatrick was playing some of the best golf he has in a while on the PGA TOUR. With lead-in-form of 6th, 10th, 9th in his three starts prior to the event, the Englishman looked poised to contend at TPC Sawgrass.

Unfortunately, Fitz got the tough end of the weather draw last week which severely impacted his chances at making the cut. The fact that he had to play during the more difficult wave and just missed the cut does nothing to change my mind about the way he’s playing. In fact, it could potentially work in his favor that he got to take the rest of the week off and avoid the long cold days on the course in difficult conditions. Additionally, there was nothing statistically from the PLAYERS that would lead me to believe there were any real issues with his current form. He gained 1.2 strokes from tee to green and had an uncharacteristically bad putting week, losing 2.9 strokes.

Also, historically, Fitzpatrick has been excellent in the state of Florida. Prior to last week, he had four consecutive top 11 finishes in the sunshine state. Despite missing the cut in his only appearance (2018), Copperhead should be an ideal fit for the Englishman. He gains an average of 0.7 strokes on the field when putting on Bermuda grass and can get the ball in the fairway on a difficult track. In his past 10 events, he’s gained an average of 3.1 strokes on the field in ‘Fairways Gained.’

With four par 5s on the course, golfers who have feasted on the scoring opportunities have given themselves a great chance to win. Sam Burns was excellent on them last year and rode them to victory. That’s good news for Fitzpatrick, who ranks first in par-5 scoring in both of his past 24 and 36 rounds. He also ranks eighth in the field in ball striking and 11th in bogeys avoided, which are two of the most important factors at Copperhead.

A maiden PGA TOUR victory has been elusive thus far for the talented 27-year-old, but the Valspar Championship is among the events most suitable for Fitz’ inevitable first victory.

Gary Woodland +7000

Woodland had excellent lead-in- form to the PLAYERS Championship, where he missed the cut. After back to back top fives in Florida (Honda and Arnold Palmer Invitational), I’m willing to give him a pass on his lackluster performance at TPC Sawgrass. With the long delays and bad weather, it would be foolish to place too much emphasis on the results at this year’s PLAYERS. With Gary, I’ll focus on the positive and there is a lot to like about him at Copperhead.

Despite missing his last three cuts at Valspar, Woodland does have an 8th place finish to his name back in 2014. While that isn’t incredibly encouraging, it does show that he has the type of game that should work around here. Course form isn’t entirely necessary at Copperhead considering Paul Casey and Adam Hadwin won the event off of a missed cut in their last start here, and Charl Schwartzel won on debut.

Woodland sniffed contention at Bay Hill prior to his poor bunker shot on the 17th, and seems like he may round into consistent form once again. The odds are long enough this week to back the former U.S. Open champion at a course that should fit his skill set.

Aaron Wise (+8000)

Aaron Wise has had some putting woes of late, but his ball striking has been immaculate. At a course where a lot of players will have a hard time putting, his biggest weakness is somewhat mitigated. In his past two starts at API and The PLAYERS, Wise has gained an average of 4.4 strokes on approach and 8.5 strokes from tee to green. That type of elite ball striking is exactly what is required to be successful at Copperhead.

The 25-year-old has an incredibly high ceiling as a golfer, and reminds me a lot of Sam Burns coming into this event last year in terms of skill set and career trajectory. Both golfers were highly regarded prior to turning pro with plenty of college accolades. Additionally, both golfers had one PGA TOUR victory at a lesser event (Wise 2018 Byron Nelson and Burns 2021 Sanderson Farms Championship). Interestingly enough, Sam Burns was also +8000 to win the Valspar Championship last year when he hoisted the trophy.

Wise is a talented young golfer with a high ceiling who’s worth a shot at a high price this week.

Kevin Streelman +13000

Streelman is a former Valspar champion who seemed to come to life last week at the PLAYERS. Although I’m not putting much emphasis on last week’s statistics, it was encouraging to see him gain 3.7 strokes on approach en route to a 22nd place finish in a difficult test.

His two PGA TOUR wins came at Copperhead (2013) and TPC River Highlands (2014). The two courses seem to have a lot of correlation and leaderboard crossover, making it plausible that this is a course he could potentially contend at once again.

Last year, Streelman played very well on tough courses. He had a stretch where he finished 8th at the PGA Championship, 13th at Memorial, and 15th at the U.S Open in a span of four weeks. After playing well at an extremely difficult PLAYERS Championship, there’s reason to believe he may play well at another tough test in Copperhead.

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