2022 Valspar Championship Odds, Preview: 4 Outright Picks Who Fit Innisbrook Well

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The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2022 Valspar Championship. Last week, rain and thunderstorms prevented the PLAYERS Championship from being completed on time, so it will be important to monitor how that will impact the Valspar in the coming days.

The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features Bermuda-grass greens. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 15, 16 and 17 — also known as the "snake pit" — make up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.

The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. Some notable players in the mix are Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Paul Casey, Xander Schauffele and Matt Fitzpatrick.

Past Winners at Valspar Championship

• 2021: Sam Burns (-17)
• 2019: Paul Casey (-8)
• 2018: Paul Casey (-10)
• 2017: Adam Hadwin (-14)
• 2016: Charl Schwartzel (-7)
• 2015: Jordan Spieth (-10)

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5 Key Stats For Copperhead

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can't be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course. Historically, great iron players have done really well here as evidenced by Paul Casey's back-to-back wins in 2018 and 2019.

Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Russell Knox (+25.0) (+7000)
2. Viktor Hovland (+21.0) (+1100)
3. Justin Thomas (+20.3) (+900)
4. Paul Casey (+19.4) (+2200)
5. Cameron Percy (+17.9) (+3500)

2. Good Drives Gained

The long hitters are a bit limited here due to the tree lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.

Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.

Good Drives Gained Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Martin Laird (+35.2) (+12500)
2. Russell Knox (+30.2) (+7000)
3. Alex Smalley (+27.3) (+15000)
4. Brian Stuard (+26.6) (+12500)
5. Matthew NeSmith (+23.8) (+17500)

3. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking

Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.

SG: Ball Striking over past 24 rounds:

1. Viktor Hovland (+34.6) (+1100)
2. Russell Knox (+33.1) (+7000)
3. Justin Thomas (+30.7) (+900)
4. Jhonattan Vegas (+23.0) (+9000)
5. Bubba Watson (+22.5) (+7000)

4. Bogey Avoidance

With the winner likely to be in the single digits under par, avoiding bogeys will be crucial this week. In a challenging event like the Valspar, oftentimes the golfer who is best at avoiding mistakes ends up on top.

Gritty golfers who can grind out difficult pars have a much better chance in an event like this than a low-scoring birdie-fest.

Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Michael Thompson (+21.0) (+25000)
2. Mito Pereira (+18.7) (+12500)
3. Nick Taylor (+17.8) (+12500)
4. Shane Lowry (+16.9) (+2200)
5. Christian Bezuidenhout (+16.4) (+6600)

5. Greens in Regulation Gained

I am adding GIR: Gained to the model to further include golfers who can control the golf ball.  Consistently hitting fairways and greens will provide golfers with the best chance of winning this week.

Greens in Regulation: Gained over past 24 rounds

1. Russell Knox (+36.6) (+7000)
2. Jhonattan Vegas (+27.1) (+9000)
3. Adam Svensson (+25.0) (+16000)
4. Paul Casey (+22.3) (+2200)
5. Bubba Watson (+20.3) (+7000)

The Valspar Championship Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (24%), Good Drives Gained (20%), SG: BS (18.7%), Bogeys Avoided (18.7%) and GIR Gained (18.7%).

1. Russell Knox (+7000)
2. Martin Laird (+12500)
3. Jhonattan Vegas (+9000)
4. Bubba Watson (+7000)
5. Viktor Hovland (+1100)
6. Justin Thomas (+900)
7. Patton Kizzire (+11000)
8. Paul Casey (+2200)
9. Collin Morikawa (+1100)
10. Adam Hadwin (+6600)

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Matt Fitzpatrick (+2500)

Prior to the PLAYERS Championship, Matt Fitzpatrick was playing some of the best golf he has in a while on the PGA TOUR. With lead-in-form of 6th, 10th, 9th in his three starts prior to the event, the Englishman looked poised to contend at TPC Sawgrass.

Unfortunately, Fitz got the tough end of the weather draw last week which severely impacted his chances at making the cut. The fact that he had to play during the more difficult wave and just missed the cut does nothing to change my mind about the way he's playing. In fact, it could potentially work in his favor that he got to take the rest of the week off and avoid the long cold days on the course in difficult conditions. Additionally, there was nothing statistically from the PLAYERS that would lead me to believe there were any real issues with his current form. He gained 1.2 strokes from tee to green and had an uncharacteristically bad putting week, losing 2.9 strokes.

Also, historically, Fitzpatrick has been excellent in the state of Florida. Prior to last week, he had four consecutive top 11 finishes in the sunshine state. Despite missing the cut in his only appearance (2018), Copperhead should be an ideal fit for the Englishman. He gains an average of 0.7 strokes on the field when putting on Bermuda grass and can get the ball in the fairway on a difficult track. In his past 10 events, he's gained an average of 3.1 strokes on the field in 'Fairways Gained.'

With four par 5s on the course, golfers who have feasted on the scoring opportunities have given themselves a great chance to win. Sam Burns was excellent on them last year and rode them to victory. That's good news for Fitzpatrick, who ranks first in par-5 scoring in both of his past 24 and 36 rounds. He also ranks eighth in the field in ball striking and 11th in bogeys avoided, which are two of the most important factors at Copperhead.

A maiden PGA TOUR victory has been elusive thus far for the talented 27-year-old, but the Valspar Championship is among the events most suitable for Fitz' inevitable first victory.

Gary Woodland +7000

Woodland had excellent lead-in- form to the PLAYERS Championship, where he missed the cut. After back to back top fives in Florida (Honda and Arnold Palmer Invitational), I’m willing to give him a pass on his lackluster performance at TPC Sawgrass. With the long delays and bad weather, it would be foolish to place too much emphasis on the results at this year’s PLAYERS. With Gary, I’ll focus on the positive and there is a lot to like about him at Copperhead.

Despite missing his last three cuts at Valspar, Woodland does have an 8th place finish to his name back in 2014. While that isn’t incredibly encouraging, it does show that he has the type of game that should work around here. Course form isn’t entirely necessary at Copperhead considering Paul Casey and Adam Hadwin won the event off of a missed cut in their last start here, and Charl Schwartzel won on debut.

Woodland sniffed contention at Bay Hill prior to his poor bunker shot on the 17th, and seems like he may round into consistent form once again. The odds are long enough this week to back the former U.S. Open champion at a course that should fit his skill set.

Aaron Wise (+8000)

Aaron Wise has had some putting woes of late, but his ball striking has been immaculate. At a course where a lot of players will have a hard time putting, his biggest weakness is somewhat mitigated. In his past two starts at API and The PLAYERS, Wise has gained an average of 4.4 strokes on approach and 8.5 strokes from tee to green. That type of elite ball striking is exactly what is required to be successful at Copperhead.

The 25-year-old has an incredibly high ceiling as a golfer, and reminds me a lot of Sam Burns coming into this event last year in terms of skill set and career trajectory. Both golfers were highly regarded prior to turning pro with plenty of college accolades. Additionally, both golfers had one PGA TOUR victory at a lesser event (Wise 2018 Byron Nelson and Burns 2021 Sanderson Farms Championship). Interestingly enough, Sam Burns was also +8000 to win the Valspar Championship last year when he hoisted the trophy.

Wise is a talented young golfer with a high ceiling who's worth a shot at a high price this week.

Kevin Streelman +13000

Streelman is a former Valspar champion who seemed to come to life last week at the PLAYERS. Although I’m not putting much emphasis on last week’s statistics, it was encouraging to see him gain 3.7 strokes on approach en route to a 22nd place finish in a difficult test.

His two PGA TOUR wins came at Copperhead (2013) and TPC River Highlands (2014). The two courses seem to have a lot of correlation and leaderboard crossover, making it plausible that this is a course he could potentially contend at once again.

Last year, Streelman played very well on tough courses. He had a stretch where he finished 8th at the PGA Championship, 13th at Memorial, and 15th at the U.S Open in a span of four weeks. After playing well at an extremely difficult PLAYERS Championship, there’s reason to believe he may play well at another tough test in Copperhead.