Wells Fargo Championship 2022 Odds & Picks: Bet Matt Fitzpatrick & These 4 Longshots

Wells Fargo Championship 2022 Odds & Picks: Bet Matt Fitzpatrick & These 4 Longshots article feature image

Andrew Redington/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Fitzpatrick.

  • Rory McIlroy is heavily favored this week at the Wells Fargo Championship.
  • Joshua Perry sees value with one player toward the top of the odds board and four longshots.
  • Check out Perry's picks and full betting card for this week below.
Click arrow to expand 2022 Wells Fargo Championship odds via PointsBet

2022 Wells Fargo Championship Odds

Rory McIlroy+800
Corey Conners+1800
Matthew Fitzpatrick+2200
Tony Finau+2200
Abraham Ancer+2500
Gary Woodland+2500
Russell Henley+2500
Seamus Power+3000
Tyrrell Hatton+3000
Keegan Bradley+3300
Marc Leishman+3300
Cameron Young+4000
Max Homa+4000
Patrick Reed+4000
Paul Casey+4000
Si Woo Kim+4000
Sergio Garcia+4500
Doug Ghim+5000
Webb Simpson+5000
Keith Mitchell+5500
Matt Kuchar+5500
Brian Harman+6000
Jhonattan Vegas+6000
Joel Dahmen+6000
Sepp Straka+6000
Aaron Rai+6600
Adam Long+6600
Jason Day+6600
Kevin Streelman+7000
Matt Jones+7000
Matthew NeSmith+7000
Troy Merritt+7000
Cheng-Tsung Pan+8000
Martin Laird+8000
Russell Knox+8000
Alex Smalley+9000
Anirban Lahiri+9000
Denny McCarthy+9000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee+9000
Lanto Griffin+9000
Mark Hubbard+9000
Ryan Armour+9000
Brandon Wu+10000
Brendan Steele+10000
Cameron Davis+10000
David Lipsky+10000
Dylan Frittelli+10000
Lucas Glover+10000
Luke List+10000
Branden Grace+12500
Francesco Molinari+12500
Greyson Sigg+12500
JT Poston+12500
Kurt Kitayama+12500
Nick Taylor+12500
Rickie Fowler+12500
Sung Kang+12500
Tyler Duncan+12500
Adam Svensson+15000
Beau Hossler+15000
Brian Stuard+15000
Chad Ramey+15000
Doc Redman+15000
Kramer Hickok+15000
Matthew Wolff+15000
Matthias Schwab+15000
Nate Lashley+15000
Taylor Moore+15000
Mackenzie Hughes+17500
Stephan Jaeger+17500
Andrew D. Putnam+20000
Andrew Novak+20000
Brice Garnett+20000
Chase Seiffert+20000
Chez Reavie+20000
John Huh+20000
Lee Hodges+20000
Michael Thompson+20000
Peter Malnati+20000
Rory Sabbatini+20000
Sam Ryder+20000
Scott Piercy+20000
Stewart Cink+20000
Zach Johnson+20000
Adam Schenk+25000
Austin Smotherman+25000
Ben Kohles+25000
Bill Haas+25000
Bo Hoag+25000
Brandon Hagy+25000
Bryson Nimmer+25000
Callum Tarren+25000
Cameron Percy+25000
Charl Schwartzel+25000
Charley Hoffman+25000
Danny Lee+25000
Hank Lebioda+25000
Harry Higgs+25000
Hayden Buckley+25000
James Hahn+25000
Joseph Bramlett+25000
Justin Lower+25000
Kevin Chappell+25000
Kevin Tway+25000
Luke Donald+25000
Matt Wallace+25000
Peter Uihlein+25000
Roger Sloan+25000
Satoshi Kodaira+25000
Trey Mullinax+25000
Vaughn Taylor+25000
Wesley Bryan+25000
Dylan Wu+30000
Eugenio Lopez-Chacarra+30000
Henrik Norlander+30000
Jim Herman+30000
Jonathan Byrd+30000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat+30000
Vincent Whaley+30000
Chesson Hadley+40000
Jacob Bridgeman+30000
Ryan Blaum+40000
Austin Cook+50000
Ben Martin+50000
Bo Van Pelt+50000
Brandon Matthews+50000
Brett Drewitt+50000
Camilo Villegas+50000
Curtis Thompson+50000
David Skinns+50000
Dawie Van Der Walt+50000
Jared Wolfe+50000
Jim Knous+50000
Johnson Wagner+50000
Jonas Blixt+50000
Joshua Creel+50000
Kelly Kraft+50000
Larkin Gross+50000
Martin Trainer+50000
Max McGreevy+50000
Michael Gligic+50000
Morgan Hoffmann+50000
Nick Watney+50000
Paul Barjon+50000
Richy Werenski+50000
Scott Gutschewski+50000
Seth Reeves+50000
Seung-yul Noh+50000
William McGirt+50000
Turk Pettit+50000
Tommy Gainey+50000
Drew Nesbitt+50000
Norman Xiong+50000
Nicholas Thompson+50000

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We had a couple chances in Mexico over the weekend. But in the end Jon Rahm locked up a rare win for the favorite this year and took down an unimpressive field.

Cameron Champ made it to the final group and looked good until a triple bogey derailed him, while Davis Riley locked up another top-5.

Now we shift our attention to the Wells Fargo Championship. No Quail Hollow this week for us, which has been a pretty straightforward distance course. That track is getting ready to host the Presidents Cup this fall, so we'll get another look at TPC Potomac this week.

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The Course

TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm will host this event for the first time, but it was used for the 2017 and '18 Quicken Loans National, won by Kyle Stanley and Francesco Molinari. Prior to that it had a 20 year run hosting the Booz Allen Classic.

The 7,107-yard, par-70 course can be a difficult test, although Molinari lit it up at 21-under for an eight-shot win. Stanley beat Charles Howell III in a playoff at 7-under par.

Precision off the tee is required for success. The fairways aren’t very wide, and there is little margin for error, with thick rough waiting to swallow up errant drives. Bunkers surround speedy bentgrass greens, putting an importance on the iron game.

We’re going to be looking for players who can gain ground off the tee without necessarily hitting it a long way, because the bomb-and-gouge technique hasn't really worked here previously. Players will need to combine that with a dialed-in approach game.

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The Favorites

He's not quite at the Rahm level from last week, but Rory McIlroy opens as a clear favorite at around +700 this week. McIlroy is technically the defending champ, although that was at Quail Hollow, which suits his game much better that TPC Potomac. He hasn't played here, but the form was solid the last time we saw him at the Masters, where a strong Sunday saw him finish second.

From there, we skip right to the +2000s, where Tony Finau, Corey Conners, Tyrell Hatton and Matthew Fitzpatrick make up the next group.

Finau will get a look after finally showing some life on the greens on Sunday to finish second behind Rahm in Mexico. Hatton and Fitzpatrick will make their debuts here this week, both entering with hit-and-miss form. Hatton has been a lock to make a cut, but he hasn't done much in the way of contending lately. Fitzpatrick has plenty of top-20 finishes this season, five out of his last seven worldwide, but hasn't really been too close to a win either.

Conners should be the best fit of the bunch. He was 41st back in 2018 at the Quicken Loans National, and the form has been as good as anyone in this field. If it ends up being one of those 10-under type weeks, this could be a good chance for him to come out on top.

I'm going to make one play here with Fitzpatrick at +2200 on BetMGM. This was the range Molinari hit for us on this course last time, so I'm circling back here.

Fitzpatrick isn't going to overpower a course, but he's gained distance and accuracy on the field most weeks off the tee. The irons are gaining ground pretty much every week as well and his short game is solid more often than not.

When Fitzpatrick has won in Europe, it's usually been on these shorter courses. Four times he's come out on top under 7,100 yards. If he's going to breakthrough on the PGA TOUR, it may well be an event like this with the big names gone on a course that should fit his style, much like when Molinari broke his PGA drought four years ago.

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The Mid-Tier

I'm going with Keith Mitchell here at +6600 on BetRivers. Mitchell has been strong off the tee for months with both distance and accuracy. The irons can be hit and miss, but he's also capable of putting together good weeks on approach. The Zurich didn't go well, missing the cut with Brandt Snedeker, but prior to that he'd finished inside the top 15 in four of his last five starts.

Next up, we'll look at Sepp Straka at +7000 on FanDuel. Straka has a win at Honda, and he was third at Heritage and ninth at the PLAYERS, so this type of event should fit his eye.

A lot of the success for Straka has come from the short game, but he hasn't shown even a glimpse that the putter may be cooling off, and he's been putting together strong weeks off the tee.

We'll also go with Aaron Rai at +8000 on DraftKings. Most of Rai's success overseas has come on shorter courses although that hasn't been the case this year on the PGA TOUR. But when he continues to put up solid results on longer courses like Torrey Pines, TPC San Antonio and last week in Mexico, I'll keep going to him in spots like this where he should be able to contend with the length advantage negated to some extent.

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The Longshots

We'll open this range with David Lipsky at 100-1 on DraftKings. He's on the shorter side off the tee, so a sixth in Mexico is a good sign of where the game is at. He gained the most strokes in the field with the approach game as well last week.

Rai has been able to string a few good results together now with a fourth at Zurich, where he partnered with Rai, along with a seventh at Corales. He's won in Asia, Europe and the Korn Ferry Tour. Obviously it's a step up, but in this type of field, he could add a PGA TOUR win to the resume.

The Wells Fargo Card

  • Matthew Fitzpatrick +2100 (1.57 units)
  • Keith Mitchell +6600 (.5 units)
  • Sepp Straka +7000 (.47 units)
  • Aaron Rai +8000 (.41 units)
  • David Lipsky +10000 (.33 units)

Total Stake: 3.28 units

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