2023 Farmers Insurance Open Picks: Outright Bets, Props on Will Zalatoris & More
Photo by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Will Zalatoris
If you weren’t a fan of the three-course rotation last week, then I have some good news for you — there are only two courses in rotation this week at the Farmers Insurance Open.
The PGA Tour wants to get out of the way of the mighty NFL Conference Championships, so this week’s tournament will start on Wednesday.
If you are betting or playing DFS, make sure to have everything set by Tuesday evening.
Torrey Pines is one of my favorite stops on the PGA Tour. After three birdie-fests to start the year, we finally have a course that will show some teeth.
The South Course will host three of the four rounds for this event. It’s a Par 72 that measures nearly 7,800 yards. It hosted the U.S. Open in 2021 and is routinely one of the most difficult non-major venues on the PGA Tour.
The fairways are narrow, the greens are tough to hit, the scrambling success rate is low and there are a lot of three-putts on these bumpy poa annua greens.
The North Course will only be played in one of the four rounds, but will make up most of the scoring for the event. We typically see the winner in the 15-under par range and the goal is essentially to shoot a low score on the North Course and then hold on for dear life at the South Course.
The courses are completely different, as the North Course is 500 yards shorter, it features bentgrass greens and it’s routinely one of the top-10 easiest courses on Tour.
In terms of course fit, golfers need to be solid all-around in order to contend at Torrey Pines. Distance off the tee is a premium, long iron play is crucial and good around the green play will go a long way on the South Course.
We have yet to hit an outright winner this year, but that’s the nature of golf betting.
Will Zalatoris +1800 (PointsBet)
We should be encouraged by the first two starts from Zalatoris after returning from injury. He finished T-11 at the Tournament of Champions and T-36 at the American Express.
Those were both birdie-fests, and he’s said many times that his best chances to win are on difficult golf courses. In fact, he’s the best in this field on difficult courses over the last two years.
He seems to like Torrey Pines, as he finished seventh in his debut in 2021 and then lost in a playoff to Luke List last year.
Jason Day +2500 (BetMGM)
The stars seem to be aligning for Day. He changed his swing in order to put less torque on his back. It has allowed him to play more often and to practice on a regular basis.
The results have certainly followed, as he’s rattled off five top-25 finishes in his last six starts while gaining 22 strokes ball-striking during that stretch.
He now returns to one of his favorite venues. Over the last 10 editions of the Farmers Insurance Open, Day has two wins and four more top-10 finishes on his resume.
Justin Rose +500 (PointsBet)
This is one of those courses where veterans seems to show up and play well every year despite having little semblance of form.
Rose has actually played fairly well over the last few months (three-straight top 30s), but this pick is more about his love for Torrey Pines.
In his last five appearances here, he has a win and three other top-10 finishes.
Ryan Palmer +1000 (PointsBet)
Palmer is in the exact same boat as Rose. For whatever reason, he seems to have figured out Torrey Pines. He has five-straight top-25 finishes at this event.
He has always been an early riser in terms of playing well in the early part of the year and the last time we saw him, he gained over four strokes ball-striking at the Sony Open.
Good luck this week!