2023 RBC Canadian Open Best Bets & Odds: Expert Picks for Cameron Young, Sam Burns & Tyrrell Hatton

2023 RBC Canadian Open Best Bets & Odds: Expert Picks for Cameron Young, Sam Burns & Tyrrell Hatton article feature image

Via David Cannon/Getty Images. Pictured: Cameron Young of The United States plays his tee shot on the fourth hole during the second round of the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club on May 19, 2023 in Rochester, New York.

Click arrow to expand the RBC Canadian Open odds via bet365
Rory McIlroy+525
Tyrrell Hatton+1300
Sam Burns+1500
Matt Fitzpatrick+1500
Cameron Young+1700
Corey Conners+1900
Justin Rose+1900
Shane Lowry+2100

Tommy Fleetwood+2700
Sahith Theegala+3200
Keith Mitchell+3700
Matt Kuchar+4500
Adrian Meronk+5000
Adam Hadwin+5500
Ludvig Aberg+6000
Nicolai Hojgaard+6500
Adam Svensson+6500
Maverick McNealy+7000
Nick Taylor+7500
Alex Smalley+7500
Michael Kim+7500
Eric Cole+7500
Mackenzie Hughes+7500
Aaron Rai+7500
Taylor Pendrith+9000
Michael Thorbjornsen+10000
Aaron Wise+10000
Harry Hall+10000
Lee Hodges+10000
David Lipsky+10000
S.H. Kim+10000

Brendon Todd+11000
Brandon Wu+11000
Will Gordon+11000
Garrick Higgo+11000
Vincent Norrman+11000
C.T. Pan+11000
Ben Martin+12000
Mark Hubbard+12000
Akshay Bhatia+14000
Webb Simpson+14000
Robby Shelton+14000
Doug Ghim+14000
Carson Young+14000
Dylan Wu+17500
Nate Lashley+17500
Cameron Champ+17500
Patton Kizzire+17500
Chez Reavie+17500
Aaron Baddeley+20000
Scott Piercy+20000
Lanto Griffin+22500
Aaron Cockerill+22500
Chad Ramey+22500
Kramer Hickok+22500
Doc Redman+22500
MJ Daffue+25000
Tyler Duncan+25000
Sam Bennett+25000
Andrew Novak+25000
Ben Silverman+25000
Zecheng Dou+25000
Grayson Murray+25000
Erik van Rooyen+30000
Peter Malnati+30000
Austin Smotherman+30000
Lucas Glover+30000
Brandt Snedeker+30000
Kevin Chappell+30000
Callum Tarren+30000
Greyson Sigg+30000
Ryan Gerard+30000

Carl Yuan+32500
Adam Long+32500
Augusto Nunez+35000
Chesson Hadley+35000
Vince Whaley+35000
Seung Yul Noh+35000
Sean O'Hair+35000
Justin Lower+35000
Martin Laird+35000
Kevin Tway+35000
Paul Haley II+35000
Matti Schmid+40000
James Hahn+40000
Brice Garnett+40000
Henrik Norlander+45000
Cody Gribble+45000
Cameron Percy+45000
Harry Higgs+45000
Brandon Matthews+45000
Hank Lebioda+45000
Martin Trainer+45000
Kevin Roy+45000
Jonathan Byrd+45000
Austin Cook+45000
David Lingmerth+45000
Chris Stroud+45000
Harrison Endycott+45000
Ryan Moore+60000
Myles Creighton+60000
Etienne Papineau+60000
Brent Grant+60000
Scott Harrington+60000
Kyle Westmoreland+60000
Roger Sloan+60000
Sung Kang+60000
Robert Streb+60000

Ryan Armour+75000
Richy Werenski+75000
Tyson Alexander+75000
Jim Herman+75000
Trevor Cone+75000
Russell Knox+75000
Matthias Schwab+75000
Trevor Werbylo+75000
Bill Haas+75000
Stuart Macdonald+75000
Michael Block+100000
Jason Dufner+100000
Michael Gligic+100000
Ryan Brehm+100000
Camilo Villegas+100000
William McGirt+100000
Derek Ernst+125000
Brian Gay+125000
Johnny Travale+125000
Mike Weir+125000
Max McGreevy+125000
Brian Stuard+125000
Kelly Kraft+125000
Andrew Landry+125000
Geoff Ogilvy+125000
Nick Watney+125000
Ricky Barnes+125000
Wesley Bryan+200000
David Hearn+300000

Our staff has analyzed the 2023 RBC Canadian Open odds board and found their favorite picks.

While  the news of a merger with LIV Golf has taken center stage in the golf world, there's still betting value to be found at the RBC Canadian Open, which is being played for the first time in its storied history at Oakdale Golf and Country Club.

Our staff of golf betting analysts breaks down the golfers they're backing to win outright along with players they are fading and other best bets. Check out our Action Network golf betting experts' picks and previews below.

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Favorites We’re Backing

Best Long Shot

  • Sobel: Nick Taylor
  • Murphy: Ryan Gerard
  • Vincenzi: Michael Thorbjornsen
  • Aguiar: Justin Lower

Biggest Bust

  • Sobel: Matt Fitzpatrick
  • Murphy: Jay Monahan?
  • Vincenzi: Tommy Fleetwood
  • Aguiar: Sahith Theegala

Contrarian Player To Target

  • Sobel: Chez Reavie
  • Vincenzi: Matt Kuchar
  • Aguiar: Keith Mitchell

Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy

Sobel: Oakdale Golf and Country Club will host this venerable tournament for the first time. The course is a par-72 that plays to 7,264 yards (and here’s a strange anomaly – according to PGATour.com, the front nine will play nearly 400 yards longer than the back nine on this composite course using 18 of the club’s 27 holes).

All of this suggests looking at leaderboards from the Sony Open, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and RBC Heritage for players who should fare well this week.

Murphy: We don’t have much to lean on this week for Oakdale Golf and Country Club as only some flyovers will give us a glimpse at the course.

We are also going to miss out on any constructive feedback from players after the PGA Tour’s merger bomb with LIV Golf dropped on Tuesday morning, turning all attention away from the event at hand.

I generally lean on ball striking and overall tee to green play as my guide in a week where there isn’t a clear-cut skillset to carry us towards players of a certain style.

Aguiar: No data on Oakdale makes life challenging for all the wrong reasons. You could argue that answer propels some of our advantages for DFS since there are always ways to generate optimal game theory routes.

Still, betting becomes a bit tricker because an incorrect alteration inside your model can vastly adjust price points and create an inconsistent output that either overvalues or undervalues an individual.

I will say that a lot of the flyovers I have watched of the course look incredibly straightforward. Eight par-4s stretch between 354 to 432 yards. That begins to tell this picture of short iron play and how imperative it is to make putts. I also noticed what likely turns into an increased demand for par-5 birdie or better percentage. There are only three par-5s on At Oakdale, but each looks reachable in two shots.

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2023 RBC Canadian Open Picks

Sobel: Tyrrell Hatton +1300 (bet365)

Over the years, I’ve had a hard time betting Tyrrell Hatton. What makes him undeniably entertaining to watch also makes him incredibly volatile — which is to say, one little thing can set him off, turning his round into a flood of expletives and middle fingers.

I’d rather trust my investments to a greater sense of stability, but I’m finally ready to overlook any potential negatives and focus on the outweighing positives, something I believe Hatton is ready to do as well.

He’s finished in the top 20 in each of his last five starts, including a T12 last week at Muirfield Village, and his Strokes Gained numbers (2.033 SG: Total) are through the roof, ranking behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm in what objectively remains as the greatest overall barometer of performance.

There’s more, too: This might not sound like much, but Hatton is accustomed to competing the week prior to a major, playing before each of the last four. While the results are a mixed bag – T5, T24 and two MCs – it’s clear that he enjoys trying to step on the gas pedal entering a bigger tournament, so there shouldn’t be any worry about him soft-playing it like perhaps some of his elite-level peers in this field.

While I don’t love the price here, last week he was twice this number with six players in front of him, and this week there are only two who opened with shorter odds, so that feels like a favorable comparison.

Over the previous five seasons, only four players have gained more than two strokes against the field overall for a full season on the PGA Tour– McIlroy in 2022, Rahm in 2021, McIlroy in 2019 and Dustin Johnson in 2018. Those players combined for 10 victories in those years, and none failed to get at least one.

Simply put, Hatton is playing too well to keep him from the winner’s circle any longer.

Murphy: Shane Lowry +2000 (FanDuel)

Shane Lowry is a player quietly rounding into form, and he posted a T16 finish at the Memorial.

The Irishman finished last week seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach as he was really dialed into that aspect of his game. If the next major were The Open Championship instead of the U.S. Open, I’d be pulling the trigger on Lowry.

One thing I do when analyzing a new course is give a little more credence to overall play. We don’t know how much things like around the green will come into play, but with a player like Lowry, we know that his play can be top notch on any track.

In my opinion, this course will be more about accuracy off the tee than length. Beyond that, a great approach with some around the green play could be enough to get near the top of the leaderboard.

That description is basically Lowry’s game, and at +2000, he gives me just enough juice ahead of some similarly talented players just above him.

Vincenzi: Sam Burns +1600 (FanDuel)

Sam Burns hasn’t been as consistent in 2023 as we’ve grown accustomed to, but he has started to string together some strong finishes in his past two starts. He finished sixth at Colonial and 16th last week at Muirfield Village.

Burns finished in a tie for fourth at last year’s RBC Canadian Open, and although it was held at a different course, the expected scoring and the agronomy of the course will be similar to what it was at St. George’s.

The 26-year-old has won at some difficult tracks over the past few years, but he’s also won a “birdie-fest” at the Sanderson Farms Championship (-22), and I expect a winner in that range this week as well. Burns ranks third in Birdie or Better Gained in his past 24 rounds, so he fits the profile as a player who can keep up with a low-scoring event.

One thing Burns never fails to offer is win equity. With five PGA Tour wins in his past 57 starts, he’s a player I know can finish the job if he gets in position over the weekend.

Aguiar: Cameron Young +1700 (bet365)

I am taking an extremely top-heavy approach to my card. More aggression does come with extra exposure and the need to hit a higher percentage of bets.

Nonetheless, I decided to change my outright structure this week to better adapt to what we have gotten so far this year and pinpoint the value that I did have near the top. That will include a decrease in my win total from eight to seven units on any outright and a much more aggressive stance.

My model liked Tyrrell Hatton's safety, but to me, two golfers stuck out when running this from a win equity standpoint in Sam Burns and Cameron Young. I will leave my Burns take for another article, especially since Matt has already done a deep dive into some of the reasons he is behind Burns, but let's talk about what my model liked so much about Cameron Young because I know that will be the controversial name of the two.

I've talked a lot so far this week about 'Expected Realization of Opportunities Created.' That is a category I created to highlight how often a golfer will generate a birdie look and capitalize on it by making the putt. I realize we don't think of Young as someone who makes a ton of putts on any given week, but my math had him as the 23rd-best putter in this field when given looks from 5-15 feet on similar greens.

His increased opportunities will result in a heightened upside, and the tournaments of the past few weeks shouldn’t be held against him since Oakdale is a venue that keeps his strengths intact.

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