2023 RBC Canadian Open Best Bets & Odds: Expert Picks for Cameron Young, Sam Burns & Tyrrell Hatton

Our staff has analyzed the 2023 RBC Canadian Open odds board and found their favorite picks.

While  the news of a merger with LIV Golf has taken center stage in the golf world, there's still betting value to be found at the RBC Canadian Open, which is being played for the first time in its storied history at Oakdale Golf and Country Club.

Our staff of golf betting analysts breaks down the golfers they're backing to win outright along with players they are fading and other best bets. Check out our Action Network golf betting experts' picks and previews below.

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Favorites We’re Backing

• Jason Sobel: Tyrrell Hatton
• Chris Murphy: Shane Lowry
• Matt Vincenzi: Sam Burns
• Spencer Aguiar: Sam Burns

Best Long Shot

• Sobel: Nick Taylor
• Murphy: Ryan Gerard
• Vincenzi: Michael Thorbjornsen
• Aguiar: Justin Lower

Biggest Bust

• Sobel: Matt Fitzpatrick
• Murphy: Jay Monahan?
• Vincenzi: Tommy Fleetwood
• Aguiar: Sahith Theegala

Contrarian Player To Target

• Sobel: Chez Reavie
• Vincenzi: Matt Kuchar
• Aguiar: Keith Mitchell

Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy

Sobel: Oakdale Golf and Country Club will host this venerable tournament for the first time. The course is a par-72 that plays to 7,264 yards (and here’s a strange anomaly – according to PGATour.com, the front nine will play nearly 400 yards longer than the back nine on this composite course using 18 of the club’s 27 holes).

All of this suggests looking at leaderboards from the Sony Open, AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and RBC Heritage for players who should fare well this week.

Murphy: We don’t have much to lean on this week for Oakdale Golf and Country Club as only some flyovers will give us a glimpse at the course.

We are also going to miss out on any constructive feedback from players after the PGA Tour’s merger bomb with LIV Golf dropped on Tuesday morning, turning all attention away from the event at hand.

I generally lean on ball striking and overall tee to green play as my guide in a week where there isn’t a clear-cut skillset to carry us towards players of a certain style.

Aguiar: No data on Oakdale makes life challenging for all the wrong reasons. You could argue that answer propels some of our advantages for DFS since there are always ways to generate optimal game theory routes.

Still, betting becomes a bit tricker because an incorrect alteration inside your model can vastly adjust price points and create an inconsistent output that either overvalues or undervalues an individual.

I will say that a lot of the flyovers I have watched of the course look incredibly straightforward. Eight par-4s stretch between 354 to 432 yards. That begins to tell this picture of short iron play and how imperative it is to make putts. I also noticed what likely turns into an increased demand for par-5 birdie or better percentage. There are only three par-5s on At Oakdale, but each looks reachable in two shots.

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2023 RBC Canadian Open Picks

Sobel: Tyrrell Hatton +1300 (bet365)

Over the years, I’ve had a hard time betting Tyrrell Hatton. What makes him undeniably entertaining to watch also makes him incredibly volatile — which is to say, one little thing can set him off, turning his round into a flood of expletives and middle fingers.

I’d rather trust my investments to a greater sense of stability, but I’m finally ready to overlook any potential negatives and focus on the outweighing positives, something I believe Hatton is ready to do as well.

He’s finished in the top 20 in each of his last five starts, including a T12 last week at Muirfield Village, and his Strokes Gained numbers (2.033 SG: Total) are through the roof, ranking behind only Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm in what objectively remains as the greatest overall barometer of performance.

There’s more, too: This might not sound like much, but Hatton is accustomed to competing the week prior to a major, playing before each of the last four. While the results are a mixed bag – T5, T24 and two MCs – it’s clear that he enjoys trying to step on the gas pedal entering a bigger tournament, so there shouldn’t be any worry about him soft-playing it like perhaps some of his elite-level peers in this field.

While I don’t love the price here, last week he was twice this number with six players in front of him, and this week there are only two who opened with shorter odds, so that feels like a favorable comparison.

Over the previous five seasons, only four players have gained more than two strokes against the field overall for a full season on the PGA Tour– McIlroy in 2022, Rahm in 2021, McIlroy in 2019 and Dustin Johnson in 2018. Those players combined for 10 victories in those years, and none failed to get at least one.

Simply put, Hatton is playing too well to keep him from the winner’s circle any longer.

Pick: Tyrrell Hatton

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Murphy: Shane Lowry +2000 (FanDuel)

Shane Lowry is a player quietly rounding into form, and he posted a T16 finish at the Memorial.

The Irishman finished last week seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach as he was really dialed into that aspect of his game. If the next major were The Open Championship instead of the U.S. Open, I’d be pulling the trigger on Lowry.

One thing I do when analyzing a new course is give a little more credence to overall play. We don’t know how much things like around the green will come into play, but with a player like Lowry, we know that his play can be top notch on any track.

In my opinion, this course will be more about accuracy off the tee than length. Beyond that, a great approach with some around the green play could be enough to get near the top of the leaderboard.

That description is basically Lowry’s game, and at +2000, he gives me just enough juice ahead of some similarly talented players just above him.

Pick: Shane Lowry +2000

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Vincenzi: Sam Burns +1600 (FanDuel)

Sam Burns hasn’t been as consistent in 2023 as we’ve grown accustomed to, but he has started to string together some strong finishes in his past two starts. He finished sixth at Colonial and 16th last week at Muirfield Village.

Burns finished in a tie for fourth at last year’s RBC Canadian Open, and although it was held at a different course, the expected scoring and the agronomy of the course will be similar to what it was at St. George’s.

The 26-year-old has won at some difficult tracks over the past few years, but he’s also won a “birdie-fest” at the Sanderson Farms Championship (-22), and I expect a winner in that range this week as well. Burns ranks third in Birdie or Better Gained in his past 24 rounds, so he fits the profile as a player who can keep up with a low-scoring event.

One thing Burns never fails to offer is win equity. With five PGA Tour wins in his past 57 starts, he’s a player I know can finish the job if he gets in position over the weekend.

Pick: Sam Burns Outright +1600

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Aguiar: Cameron Young +1700 (bet365)

I am taking an extremely top-heavy approach to my card. More aggression does come with extra exposure and the need to hit a higher percentage of bets.

Nonetheless, I decided to change my outright structure this week to better adapt to what we have gotten so far this year and pinpoint the value that I did have near the top. That will include a decrease in my win total from eight to seven units on any outright and a much more aggressive stance.

My model liked Tyrrell Hatton's safety, but to me, two golfers stuck out when running this from a win equity standpoint in Sam Burns and Cameron Young. I will leave my Burns take for another article, especially since Matt has already done a deep dive into some of the reasons he is behind Burns, but let's talk about what my model liked so much about Cameron Young because I know that will be the controversial name of the two.

I've talked a lot so far this week about 'Expected Realization of Opportunities Created.' That is a category I created to highlight how often a golfer will generate a birdie look and capitalize on it by making the putt. I realize we don't think of Young as someone who makes a ton of putts on any given week, but my math had him as the 23rd-best putter in this field when given looks from 5-15 feet on similar greens.

His increased opportunities will result in a heightened upside, and the tournaments of the past few weeks shouldn’t be held against him since Oakdale is a venue that keeps his strengths intact.

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