As golf bettors, we can do all the research and run all the models we want, but we’re still at the mercy of the weather. Multiple times per year, a storm or high winds will hit a course at a specific time and just wipe out a chunk of the field’s chance of winning.
The Masters is no exception, so let’s take a look at the forecast to see if there is a segment of players who got an advantage with their tee time draw.
As with any forecast, none of this is set in stone, but we can make a few educated guesses on when the wind will pick up or rain will arrive.
My go-to site for this information is windfinder.com, then I’ll search out the closest weather station to the course. All of the info we’re about to go over comes from that forecast.
A little rain is expected to hit on Wednesday, but the first two rounds look nice with no precipitation expected to hit the course.
It looks like players going off in the afternoon will have an advantage on both days, but I’d expect it to be a little more pronounced on Thursday.
The morning wave looks like it get winds in the 10 MPH range with gusts as high as 18 MPH. Couple that with cool temperatures in the 40s and 50s and it will lead to some uncomfortable playing conditions.
The wind looks like it will die down in the afternoon to the 5 MPH range with temperatures in the high 60s, making for much more scoreable conditions.
So who would this benefit? A lot of big names make up the final four groups and could see the most benign conditions on Thursday. Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Phil Mickelson, Justin Rose, Jon Rahm, Alex Noren, Matt Kuchar and Adam Scott all have tee times of 1:27 p.m. or later.
#Masters Week will start off nice but then turn stormy Wednesday, and the end of the tournament could also see thunderstorms, at least on Saturday, according to the National Weather Service. Gusty winds could also bedevil players on those days. https://t.co/KmVpDzh9tb pic.twitter.com/YamBwRr155
— Augusta.com (@AUG_Masters) April 2, 2018
I’ll double check this again Wednesday night and if there is no change, I’ll target that afternoon group with a few first-round leader props.
Friday will be a little more balanced in terms of conditions. The morning will be colder, but wind will pick up a little in the afternoon. It’s pretty hard to know what kind of conditions players would rather play in — wind or cold — but I tend to lean a little bit more to the wind just because it’s more common for these pros to compete in 10-15 MPH gusts as opposed to 45-55 degree temperatures.
The aforementioned group of stars will get tee times in the late morning beginning around 10:30 a.m. Friday, so they’ll dodge the coldest temperatures in the early morning and with the wind gusts expected to stay under 15 MPH, they should be hampered the least by anything Mother Nature has to offer.
As with any weather forecast, this stuff can change on a dime, so it’s best to be prepared for anything, rather than put all your eggs in one basket.
In DFS, it’s widely recommended that if you’re playing a weather stack, that you should account for both ends of the draw.
You don’t want to get caught on the wrong end if a storm shows up a few hours early or late. With the weather, I used to stack 10-15 percent of my lineups on each side of the draw. Usually, the player tee times are spread out enough that you don’t have to sacrifice anything with roster construction in order to make these lineups. It gives me the coverage I’m looking for without going to heavy on something that can be so volatile.