For analysis of the top 85 golfers in the field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics.
The Info: Jordan Spieth
DFS Pricing: $10,800 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel
U.S. Open History (2013-2017): MC, T-17, Won, T-37, T-35
Odds: +1400 to win, +150 top-10 finish, -125 top-20 finish, -600 to make cut, +350 to miss cut
Best Odds Value: +350 to miss cut
Best Matchup Value: Tiger Woods (+110) over Jordan Spieth
Tee Times: 8:02 a.m. (Thursday); 1:47 p.m. (Friday)
Par-4 scoring, bogey avoidance and greens in regulation (GIR) are things I am weighing heavily this week at Shinnecock, which makes Spieth an interesting case. For starters, over the past 75 weeks, Spieth leads the field in average adjusted strokes on par-4s (-2.9), while hitting 70.2% of greens in regulation. Within the same time frame, he’s avoided bogey or worse on 60.6% of holes. That said, his recent form isn’t great. Over his past four rounds, he’s struggled with his short game, ranking 110th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 69th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green. Being errant around the greens at Shinnecock will punish you, and even more so if you’re putter isn’t rolling, and Spieth ranks 94th in Strokes Gained: Putting this season. Given his recent form, I’d have a difficult time backing Spieth.
Here’s how Spieth ranks in the U.S. Open field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
- Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: T-4th
- Recent Adjusted Round Score: T-52nd
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 4th
- Long-Term Driving Distance: 62nd
- Strokes Gained: Approach: 14th
Want more U.S. Open coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 85 best golfers in the field.