Recent Form Makes Jordan Spieth Tough to Trust at U.S. Open

Jun 11, 2018 7:49 PM EDT

For analysis of the top 85 golfers in the field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics.


The Info: Jordan Spieth

DFS Pricing: $10,800 DraftKings, $11,500 FanDuel

U.S. Open History (2013-2017): MC, T-17, Won, T-37, T-35

Odds: +1400 to win, +150 top-10 finish, -125 top-20 finish, -600 to make cut, +350 to miss cut

Best Odds Value: +350 to miss cut

Best Matchup Value: Tiger Woods (+110) over Jordan Spieth

Tee Times: 8:02 a.m. (Thursday); 1:47 p.m. (Friday)

For more U.S. Open betting and DFS coverage, follow @ActionNetGolf on Twitter and subscribe to The Action Network Golf podcast.


The Outlook

Par-4 scoring, bogey avoidance and greens in regulation (GIR) are things I am weighing heavily this week at Shinnecock, which makes Spieth an interesting case. For starters, over the past 75 weeks, Spieth leads the field in average adjusted strokes on par-4s (-2.9), while hitting 70.2% of greens in regulation. Within the same time frame, he’s avoided bogey or worse on 60.6% of holes. That said, his recent form isn’t great. Over his past four rounds, he’s struggled with his short game, ranking 110th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 69th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green. Being errant around the greens at Shinnecock will punish you, and even more so if you’re putter isn’t rolling, and Spieth ranks 94th in Strokes Gained: Putting this season. Given his recent form, I’d have a difficult time backing Spieth.


The Metrics

Here’s how Spieth ranks in the U.S. Open field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

  • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: T-4th
  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: T-52nd
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 4th
  • Long-Term Driving Distance: 62nd
  • Strokes Gained: Approach: 14th

Want more U.S. Open coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 85 best golfers in the field.

Credit:

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Justin Bailey on Twitter
@justinbailey32

Top Stories