Perry’s Guide to Betting the Masters Mid-Tier: Where the Value Lies

Apr 09, 2019 02:00 PM EDT
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bubba Watson and Hideki Matsuyama

  • Several Masters winners in the last few years have come from the 40-1 to 50-1 range, including Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia and Bubba Watson.
  • Joshua Perry breaks down four plays he likes in this range and explains why he's ignoring putting and focusing on ball-strikers in good form in this tier.

Eyes will be drawn to The Masters favorites this week, and with good reason.

But when it comes time to find betting value for Augusta, rarely is it at the top of the board.

Instead, winners tend to come from that next tier of players. Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia and Bubba Watson have all won in the past seven years in that +4000 to +5000 range.

The pressure is high at The Masters and guys in this range can usually fly under the radar the first few days and just focus on golf. They aren’t usually as consistent as the favorites on a week-to-week basis, but when we’re looking for an eventual champion, they have the ability to take down any field in golf with their ‘A’ game.

If we’re betting an outright winner, there’s not much difference between a missed cut and a 25th place finish. Players in this area of the board are far more likely to miss the cut than the favorites, but that doesn’t really matter for us. All we’re looking for is that winning ability when they’re playing their best.

Here are four guys I’m targeting as the week progresses:

Hideki Matsuyama (+3500)

Matsuyama is close to winning something soon. The results have been building early in 2019 with five top 20s in seven events. He’s also been inside the top 20 in six trips to The Masters.

Putting is always the concern, but these greens are as difficult as any in the world and give the best putters trouble. If good putters are missing short putts, it negates Hideki’s weakness a little.

We just need to look at recent winners like Garcia and Adam Scott to know that bad putters can find their way to a green jacket. I’m waiting out this number a bit to see if the +4000 that was out a couple weeks ago returns, but if it doesn’t, I’ll still probably bet him at this price.

Bubba Watson (+4000)

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