Cubs vs. Astros Odds & Betting Predictions - May 17, 2023

Cubs at Astros

12:10 am • TBS

Chicago Cubs

11-15

3 - 7

Houston Astros

11-12

pitcher		team	era	w-l
C.Javier			4.56	10-5
J.Steele			3.06	16-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Cubs 11-15	N/A	N/A	N/A
Astros 11-12	N/A	N/A	N/A

Wednesday 12:10 a.m.

May 17, 2023

Daikin ParkHouston

Under 7.5-108

1.08u

CHC +140 (F5)

0.5u

CHC +148

0.5u

C.Javier u7.5 Ks-126

1.02u

His prop market dropped everywhere due to the Cubs putting out a tougher lineup to K than expected. FanDuel is a bit late to the game here. Projecting it closer to -220 and I’m projecting under 6.5 -125. Essentially getting a free K here

CHC +140

1.1u

HOU -168

0.6u

J.Steele o17.5 Outs-112

$102.68

Over 7.5-105

0.5u

Bet to -112

CHC +150

0.5u

Need +150

CHC +138 (F5)

Steele 4.27 SIERA/3.21 xERA, Javier 3.41/4.18, estimators overall are very similar - HOU 82/103/78 wRC+ Hm/v LHP/L7 days, CHC 115/107/118 - CHC better defense by 6 Runs Prevented - HOU pen 1/2 run better estimators L30 days, staying F5 here w/ much closer SP matchup

Under 8-110

1.1u

Project 7.1; both lineups mediocre v L/R split (Steele/Javier). Both starters 3.3 FIP or lower. Both pens stellar 3.7 FIP or lower

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The Astros are 10-6 (.625) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season -- tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Astros are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Astros are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Astros' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 36 of Astros' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	82-80	37-44	45-36	43-60	39-18
Cubs	78-84	39-42	39-42	55-60	22-24

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Astros	72-83-7	36-43-2	36-40-5	45-56-2	25-27-5
Cubs	74-78-10	40-36-5	34-42-5	52-56-7	22-21-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Astros	87-75	46-35	41-40	56-47	31-26
Cubs	92-70	50-31	42-39	73-42	18-28

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 16th	CHC	W 6-4	-	-	-
May 14th	@CWS	W 4-3	-	-	-
May 13th	@CWS	L 1-3	-	-	-
May 13th	@CWS	W 5-1	-	-	-
May 10th	@LAA	W 5-4	-	-	-

Hayden Wesneski
RP
Wesneski is out with elbow
Out

Justin Steele
SP
Steele is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Steele, P	82	6	8	5
RN.Burdi, P	21	1	1	2
RJ.Merryweather, P	15	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1N.Madrigal, 3B	0-4	0	0	0
2D.Swanson, SS	0-4	0	0	0
3C.Morel, CF	1-4	1	0	0
4I.Happ, LF	0-4	0	0	0
5S.Suzuki, RF	2-4	1	1	2
6M.Mervis, 1B	2-4	1	1	1
7M.Mastrobuoni, 2B	1-3	0	0	0
7P.Wisdom, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8E. Hosmer, DH	0-2	0	0	0
8T.Mancini, PH	0-1	0	0	0
8T.Mancini, DH	0-1	0	0	0
9T.Barnhart, C	0-1	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RC.Javier, P	88	6	5	1
RP.Maton, P	18	1	2	0
LM.Gage, P	39	2	3	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1M.Dubon, 2B	2-4	2	0
2A.Bregman, 3B	0-1	1	1
3Y.Alvarez, DH	2-4	1	2
4K.Tucker, RF	1-4	1	1
5J.Abreu, 1B	0-3	0	0
5D.Hensley, PH	0-1	0	0
5D.Hensley, 1B	0-1	0	0
6J.Pena, SS	1-4	0	0
7C.Julks, LF	1-4	1	1
8C.McCormick, CF	2-4	0	1
9M.Maldonado, C	0-3	1	0