Dodgers vs. Phillies Odds & Betting Predictions - July 21, 2026

Wheeler is obviously pitching with a chip on his shoulder with the All Star snub (the fact it was in Philly probably made him 10x more angry). He was also pitching out of his mind before the break. I have him right around a 30% expected K rate and still showing value on his under because the Dodgers put out a much tougher lineup (to K) than expected with Call in (instead of Hernandez) and Eliezer Alfonso behind the plate (instead of Rushinf). Alfonso projects to be a very tough K (expected K rate is half of Rushing’s) so that was huge for the prop and market barely reacted. Projecting closer to -140. Game might get rained out but if they do try to play there is some delay risk too which helps the under

(FD) Suddenly struck out 20 of L55 BF (13.7 SwStr%). Avg 95.3 mph L6 starts (93.8 prior). Averaging 26 BF this year. First 26 in PHI proj. LU avg 24.1 K%. 8-9% park/ump boost.