White Sox vs. Twins Odds & Betting Predictions - August 29, 2026

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I’m backing the Minnesota Twins Moneyline tonight against the White Sox, and this handicap starts with a starting-pitching matchup that I believe favors Minnesota more than the surface ERAs suggest. Dean Kremer enters with an ugly 5.22 ERA, but his underlying numbers paint a much different picture. Kremer owns a 4.28 xERA and 3.85 xFIP, while his SIERA sits around 3.89. The major outlier is his 5.18 FIP, which has been heavily impacted by the home run ball. His strikeout and walk profile has been much more encouraging, and since joining Minnesota, Kremer has allowed just a 3.18 ERA across 22.2 innings. On the other side, Luis Castillo has been one of my fade targets. Castillo carries a 5.19 ERA, 4.92 xERA, 4.69 FIP and 4.34 xFIP into this matchup. The problem is that this isn't simply bad luck. Castillo's strikeout rate has fallen to around 20%, his WHIP is up to 1.42, and he's allowing nearly 10 hits per nine innings. His underlying profile doesn't suggest some massive turnaround is coming. I also like the matchup for Minnesota's offense against a right handed starter. Their results against righties have been inconsistent overall, but we've seen considerably more damage recently. This is a lineup capable of punishing Castillo if his recent command and home run issues continue. Finally, Minnesota's bullpen should be in excellent shape tonight. The Twins were off Thursday, and their primary relief options weren't heavily taxed immediately beforehand, giving Minnesota a rested group behind Kremer. Give me the Twins Moneyline.