Friday's MLB slate features a number of players looking to leave the yard.
I came through with three home run picks for Friday, including bets on Kansas City's Jac Caglianone, Atlanta's Matt Olson and Minnesota's Kody Clemens.
Let's five into my MLB player props and Major League Baseball home run picks for the games on Friday, August 28.
MLB Player Props, Home Run Picks
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:10 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
| 8:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Royals vs Guardians Home Run Pick
Jac Caglianone Over 0.5 Home Runs (+360)
Although many thought they were eliminated from playoff contention long ago, the Kansas City Royals are playing inspired baseball in August to technically remain alive in the postseason mix.
Behind a dynamic lineup that's finally healthy, this team has won 11 of their last 13 games, including a 13-2 pummeling of Toronto last night, and has scored the sixth-most runs (118) in baseball over the month of August.
Although the 8.5-game margin in the American League Wild Card race is likely too much to overcome, there should be plenty of excitement for the fanbase about this team’s potential in 2027.
The franchise’s star slugger, Jac Caglianone, is one of the biggest reasons for optimism in Kansas City going forward.
The 23-year-old has been pivotal in the team’s success all season and appears to be on his way to becoming one of the league’s most feared power hitters.
In his first full season with the Royals, Caglianone ranks seventh among all qualified Major League hitters in hard-hit rate (55.0%) and ninth in average exit velocity (93.2 mph). He's hitting .282 on the year and leads Kansas City in home runs (23), slugging percentage (.500) and OPS (.832).
Just in August alone, Caglianone is hitting .415 with six home runs and a 1.155 OPS.
Last night, he went 5-for-6 in the lopsided victory with three singles, a double and a 409-foot home run. His last three batted balls all registered exit velocities over 104 mph, including one single that came off the bat at 112.3 mph.
Tonight, Caglianone and the red-hot Royals open a three-game series in Cleveland, and it’ll be a familiar foe in Tanner Bibee toeing the rubber for the Guardians.
Bibee has struggled to keep opponents in the yard in 2026, giving up 26 homers on the year, which is already just one away from tying his career-high of 27 home runs allowed last season.
The 27-year-old has particularly struggled with the long ball at home this season; he’s served up 19 of his 26 round-trippers in 86 1/3 innings at Progressive Field, and Bibee’s last two home outings resulted in multiple homers allowed.
Caglianone is one of several left-handed hitters who could give Bibee trouble tonight. It’s worth noting the Cleveland right-hander has conceded 20 of his home runs to lefties in 2026 to go along with a .444 SLG allowed.
Pick: Jac Caglianone Over 0.5 Home Runs (+360)
Rockies vs Braves Home Run Pick
Matt Olson Over 0.5 Home Runs (+260)
Olson has been the model of consistency during his time with Atlanta. In fact, he has been the model of consistency for many professional athletes, as his 911 consecutive games played remains one of the most underrated statistics in sports.
Olson started the streak in 2021 when he was still with the Athletics and has posted outstanding numbers at the plate during that lengthy stretch without missing a game.
He appears to be aging like fine wine, as his 2026 numbers are perhaps his best since 2023, when Olson led the entire National League with 54 home runs.
The 32-year-old continues to crush the ball in the heart of Atlanta’s lineup, launching 37 home runs (second in MLB) to go along with a stellar .259 batting average and excellent .535 SLG.
Olson has remained locked in as of late too; over the month of August, he has recorded eight round-trippers and a .562 SLG.
He has a great chance to add to that tally tonight, as the Rockies and their dreadful pitching staff come to town for a three-game series in Atlanta.
Colorado will be starting right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, who has been one of the hardest-hit arms in all of Major League Baseball.
Sugano ranks second in the majors in barrels allowed in 2026, serving up a whopping 54 of them so far this season. He leads all pitchers with 10.5 barrels per plate appearance, while his average exit velocity (90.9 mph) and hard-hit rate (43.6%) have been less than ideal.
In addition, his expected numbers are far worse than his actual production; his .566 xSLG is the worst mark of all qualified major leaguers, while his 7.05 xERA ranks as the second-worst.
With all due respect to Sugano, he's a pitcher to target on any given night that he takes the mound.
The 36-year-old continues to regress toward those expected statistics, and it’s been evident in August, as he’s posted a miserable 7.58 ERA over 19 innings this month. Opponents are hitting .329 and slugging .646 against him over the course of this month as well.
Sugano had surrendered a home run in 10 consecutive starts prior to his last outing against Cleveland on Aug. 23, when he finally came away unscathed.
However, considering his propensity to give up loud contact to left-handed bats in particular (19 HRs, .590 SLG), Sugano should be on high alert tonight anytime that Olson steps into the batter’s box.
Pick: Matt Olson Over 0.5 Home Runs (+260)
White Sox vs Twins Home Run Pick
Kody Clemens Over 0.5 Home Runs (+375)
Veteran right-hander Luis Castillo makes his fifth start for the Chicago White Sox tonight at Target Field in Minnesota, and the 33-year-old’s transition since being traded from Seattle has been anything but smooth.
A three-time All-Star with both Cincinnati and Seattle, Castillo had been one of baseball’s most reliable starting pitchers over his first nine seasons in the majors.
However, things began to unravel for Castillo earlier in 2026, well before being shipped to Chicago at the trade deadline.
Castillo owned a bloated 5.09 ERA in 20 games with the Mariners, allowing 16 home runs along the way.
But he was often protected by the pitching-friendly confines of T-Mobile Park; Castillo conceded just four of those homers in Seattle while holding opponents to a .391 SLG.
In 18 1/3 innings since the trade, Castillo has already surrendered five bombs, as opponents are slugging .532 against him. In addition, the opposition owns a hard-hit rate of 47.7% against the veteran since he joined the White Sox.
Although you could argue that Castillo has kept right-handed batters mostly in check this season, lefties are feasting off the veteran’s pitching; southpaw hitters have gone deep 14 times and own a .504 SLG against him.
Castillo has now given up a pair of home runs in back-to-back starts, and it won’t get any easier tonight against a potent Twins lineup that features multiple left-handed sluggers.
Kody Clemens is one of the Minnesota bats that could give Castillo trouble tonight. In fact, he’s had success against him in the past, going 2-for-5 with a pair of home runs in his career against Castillo.
Clemens is tied for second on the team with 21 home runs so far in 2026, with 16 of those dingers coming against left-handed pitching.
Clemens, unlike some of his teammates, has also thrived at home; the 30-year-old is slugging .500 through 192 at-bats at Target Field to go along with nine home runs and an .844 OPS.
Despite leaving the yard just twice in August, Clemens continues to hit the ball with authority; he leads Minnesota in average exit velocity (92.3 mph) and ranks second in hard-hit rate (45.9%).
He should be considered an excellent candidate to go deep tonight, especially given the matchup against Castillo.
Pick: Kody Clemens Over 0.5 Home Runs (+375)
