2021 World Series Odds Tracker: George Springer Forces Blue Jays Movement
Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: George Springer
Odds to Win the 2021 World Series
January 20 Update
The Toronto Blue Jays were a bit of a sleeping giant in free agency — a major market team with needs missing out on top options off the board.
They didn’t miss on perhaps the best.
The Blue Jays agreed to a six-year deal with former Astros outfielder George Springer, the biggest deal thus far this offseason.
The team is also interested in outfielder/DH Michael Brantley, but no deal has been finalized at time of publish.
The acquisition pushed the Blue Jays from 40-1 to win the World Series down to 30-1. They still have to compete with the Yankees and Rays, but indications are there’s more moves to be made north of the border.
At BetMGM, Toronto is now +450 to win the AL East after opening +600. The team is +1100 to win the AL Pennant, down from +1500.
The team also agreed to a deal with reliever Kirby Yates and earlier signed starting pitcher Robbie Ray.
Losing Springer caused a small adjustment from 18-1 to 20-1 for Houston. The White Sox hopped the Braves after signing closer Liam Hendriks. The Twins and Rays each dropped from 15-1 to 20-1.
January 7 Update
The New York Mets made their first big splash of the season acquiring Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco from the Indians in exchange for Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez and prospects.
The Mets are still behind the Dodgers, Padres and Braves in the NL on the World Series oddsboard, but New York’s line dropped from 14-1 at DraftKings to 12-1 following the announcement of the trade.
Cleveland’s sell-off is in full swing. The Indians dropped from 22-1 to 35-1.
December 28 Update
If the San Diego Padres weren’t all in before, they are now.
On consecutive days, the Padres agreed to deals for starting pitchers Blake Snell and Yu Darvish.
The Padres are sending a prospect package built around catcher Francisco Mejia and pitcher Luis Patino to the Rays for Snell, who has three years and $39 million left on his deal. That was enough to move the Padres up the World Series oddsboard and lengthen the odds of the Rays.
Darvish is next, according to multiple reports. San Diego is expected to send four prospects and starting pitcher Zach Davies to the Cubs; none of the prospects are considered top-10 for San Diego.
The Padres are down to +1000 at DraftKings, behind only the Dodgers and Braves in the National League. However, they’re as low as +750 at PointsBet.
In the first sign of some sort of rebuild, the Cubs dropped from +2500 to +3300.
The Rays, coming off a World Series berth, dropped from +1100 to +1500 behind the White Sox in the AL.
One other notable move unrelated to this trade is the New York Mets dropping to 14-1 from 18-1. Unrelated, that is, unless the Padres acquiring Snell and Darvish takes a Trevor Bauer option off the table.
December 25 Update
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees are in a tier of their own on top of the World Series odds board heading into the new year.
With just James McCann off the board as far as significant free agents go, plenty will change between now and the start of spring training. But there doesn’t figure to be a change between the two currently at the top.
Not only are the Dodgers and Yankees arguably the two most talent teams in baseball, they’re public favorites on the futures market year in and year out.
The Dodgers are in on every key free agent and trade option because of their spending ability and savvy front office. The Yankees, meanwhile, are focused on bringing back batting champ DJ LeMahieu.
The Braves head the next tier of contenders at +1000. Atlanta needs to either bring back or replace Marcell Ozuna but has shored up the rotation with Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly.
The Rays are coming off a World Series loss to the Dodgers and are involved in cost-cutting rumors such as trading Blake Snell. Still, Tampa Bay always finds itself in the playoff conversation.
The Mets may be under the biggest spotlight this offseason with new owner Steve Cohen promising to bring change — and dollars — to New York’s other team. They’ve been linked to just about every top free agent and are expected to bring in at least one, if not two, of the top options.
Deeper down the odds board, the Washington Nationals (+3500) made a notable move acquiring former All-Star Josh Bell from the Pirates. Bell has big potential, as seen by his 2019 season, but his underlying numbers were worrisome in 2020. If he bounces back, he’s a perfect complement in the lineup with Juan Soto.
The Blue Jays are ‘in’ on many top free agents, signaling a willingness to spend and compete. That won’t be easy in the AL East with the Yankees, Rays and what should be an improved Red Sox team.
The bottom of the list has three teams at 100-1. Those odds will likely lengthen for the bottom teams once the season nears if you’re feeling a longshot.