2021 World Series Odds Tracker: Astros Close Gap on Dodgers
Bob Levey/Getty Images. Pictured: Framber Valdez and Robel Garcia.
Odds to Win the 2021 World Series
Odds via DraftKings.
September 27 Update
The Houston Astros have cut into the Los Angeles Dodgers’ lead on the World Series oddsboard.
Last week, the Dodgers were +280 compared to +475 for the Astros. Fast forward to this week, the Dodgers have dipped to +340 while Houston inched up to +450.
Meanwhile, the Yankees are back in the conversation after a big weekend against the Red Sox. New York is to +1300 after dropping to +2500 last week.
September 20 Update
The San Diego Padres freefall is almost complete, and the New York Yankees aren’t far behind.
In just a week, the Padres have fallen almost completely out of the playoff picture now sitting 3.5-games behind the St. Louis Cardinals for the second wild card spot. The Reds and Phillies are ahead of them in the chase as well. That’s thrown San Diego’s World Series odds off a cliff from +3500 last week to +13000 now.
Meanwhile in the American League, the Yankees have fallen out of both wild card slots and now trail the Blue Jays and Red Sox in both the standings and oddsboard. New York moved from +1400 down to +2500.
September 14 Update
Here come the Blue Jays.
In just two weeks, Toronto has shot up the World Series oddsboard moving from +9000 on September 1 to +2000 on September 14.
Toronto remains eight games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the AL East crown, but the Blue Jays hold a one-game lead for the top AL Wild Card spot over the Yankees. The Blue Jays have won nine of their last 10 games while the Yankees have lost eight of 10. That’s helped turn a 4.5-game deficit into the lead.
The Yankees slide dropped them from +850 to +1400 while the rest of the market has held close to the same.
September 1 Update
A hot month has flipped odds for the New York Yankees and Atlanta Braves.
Entering August, the conversation around the Yankees was whether to buy or sell and manager Aaron Boone’s job security. Fast forward a month and the Yankees have moved from +1600 to +750 to win the World Series. New York leads the American League wild card by two games over the Red Sox. The lead is three games over Oakland, currently the first team on the outside looking in to the playoffs.
Atlanta was tumbling down the standings and oddsboard with injuries piling up, including Ronald Acuna Jr. The Braves now sit 2.5-games ahead of the second-place Phillies in the NL East and saw their odds cut down all the way to +1200 from +4500 just a month ago.
The top of the oddsboard remains the same with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros ahead of the rest.
August 2 Update
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros have further calcified their grips on their positions as favorites to win the National League and American League, respectively.
The Dodgers have become +300 favorites to win the World Series, down from +400 the previous month, after making a trade for three-time Cy Young pitcher Max Scherzer and All-Star Trea Turner. Los Angeles is still three games behind the San Francisco Giants for first place in the NL West as of August 2.
The Astros are still second-best favorites to win it all and moved their line down from +650 to +550. Their line was as high as +1600 at the beginning of June. Houston has a 4.5-game lead on the Oakland Athletics in the AL West.
The San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals and A’s have taken substantial dips in their futures odds since July. The Padres missed out on a Scherzer trade despite reports that a deal was about to be finalized and ended up only with second baseman Adam Frazier, pitcher Daniel Hudson and outfielder Jake Marisnick to show for it. San Diego is now +1100 to win the World Series, down from +700 a month ago.
The Cubs traded Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant and Craig Kimbrel in the span of just two days, completely dismantling a core that won them the World Series in 2016. Their odds dropped from +3300 to +25000 in the month’s span.
The Nationals, too, imparted a fire sale, getting rid of Turner, Scherzer, Hudson and others. Their odds fell from +5000 to +25000.
The A’s dropped precipitously from seventh-best favorites at +1500 to 12th-best at +3500.
July 1 Update
The Houston Astros used 20 wins in the month of June to shoot all the way up the oddsboard to be the betting favorite in the American League to win the World Series.
Houston went 20-8 overall in June to close the month with +650 odds to win the World Series at DraftKings, a large movement from the +1600 price entering the month.
The Astros only trail the Dodgers, whose odds lengthened from +350 to +400.
The National League team seeing the biggest rise is the San Francisco Giants who keep trying to prove themselves as one of the best teams in all of baseball. Sportsbooks aren’t totally committed to that idea, but the Giants are now +1800 to win it all, down from +3300 at the start of the month.
The White Sox saw a slight drop, while the Yankees and Braves are notable teams to see their odds lengthen. Atlanta is all the way down to +4500.
June 1 Update
A new month, but the Dodgers are still the favorite to repeat as World Series champions. Los Angeles began the month of May by dropping six of their first eight games, before winning 14 of their remaining 19 games in the month to move themselves into third in the NL West behind San Francisco and San Diego.
At No. 2 are the Chicago White Sox who saw the biggest improvement in odds, moving from +1400 to +650 in a month, replacing the New York Yankees as the top team in the American League.
The second biggest mover was the NL West-leading Giants who went from +8000 odds in May to +3300 to begin June. Despite having the best record in the Nation League, however, the Giants only have the 14th best odds to win the World Series, trailing six teams in the N.L.
The biggest fall among teams with top-10 odds to win the title was for the Atlanta Braves who dropped from +1500 to +2100, as the team has a sub-.500 record through 50 games. Their only saving grace is that only one team in the NL East has a winning record, the New York Mets.
May 1 Update
The Dodgers remain the favorites to win the World Series, despite a shaky end to April that sees them in second place in the National League West behind the Giants.
Trailing the champs are the Yankees, who went from +550 before the season to +750. New York was last in the American League East for most of April but finished the month by winning seven of 10.
The biggest movers of the first month were the Boston Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewers.
Not many considered the Red Sox legitimate contenders entering the season, but their lineup appears to be for real. Only the Astros scored more runs in the American League in April, while only two teams had a better run differential after the first month — Houston and the White Sox.
Alex Cora’s magic is working again, and it has moved Boston from +5000 to start the regular season to +2000 after April.
The Brewers, meanwhile, opened the season at +4400 and are now +2200 thanks to a 16-10 April that has them two games ahead of the Cardinals in the NL Central. The Brewers’ incredible pitching, led by Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, has been a big story of the first month, and they did most of this damage without former MVP Christian Yelich.
Meanwhile, the team that finished April with MLB’s second-best winning percentage still is in the bottom half of the oddsboard. The Kansas City Royals entered May leading the AL Central at 15-9, but they only went from +10000 to +7500. There’s reason to be suspicious of Kansas City’s impressive start, but there were similar concerns back when the Royals made back-to-back World Series trips not too long ago.
March 25 Update
What a surprise. The Dodgers went through spring training and still emerged as the favorite to repeat as World Series champion.
The only change in the top five was the Braves jumping the White Sox for the fourth- and fifth-best odds. Chicago was dealt the devastating news today that slugger Eloy Jimenez will miss five to six months with a ruptured pectoral tendon.
The Yankees remain the favorite to represent the American League and the Athletics remain as having the best odds out of the AL West despite having a lower projected win total than the Astros.
In the cellar, the Texas Rangers moved from second to last, up to the 27th best odds, ahead of the Orioles, Rockies and Pirates.
February 5 Update
The Los Angeles Dodgers won the World Series four months ago, are the consensus favorites to win the World Series again in 2021, and just landed the top free-agent pitcher on the market.
Trevor Bauer, the reigning National League Cy Young winner, agreed to a three-year deal with Los Angeles on Wednesday. The deal could pay him $102 million over three seasons, but the right-hander has opt-outs after both the first and second year of the deal.
After news of the signing broke, FanDuel adjusting the Dodgers — who were already the consensus World Series favorite — down to +350 from +450.
Overall, it doesn’t change much for Los Angeles from a betting standpoint. The Dodgers were already heavy favorites to win in any way possible — from the NL West to the National League to the World Series.
January 29 Update
The St. Louis Cardinals swung a blockbuster trade late Friday night, acquiring five-time All-Star and eight-time Gold Glove winner Nolan Arenado from the Colorado Rockies for a package of young players.
The market was quick to react to the trade, even though as of late Friday it was only agreed upon but not yet official. At BetMGM, the Cardinals’ World Series odds moved from 30-1 to 22-1, tied with the Houston Astros for the 10th-lowest odds in the league.
The move also made the Cardinals favorites to win the NL Central. While none of the non-Pirates teams in the division have separated themselves too far from the pack this offseason, the trade established St. Louis as +210 favorites, with the Reds and Cubs checking in at +275 and the Brewers at +300. Prior to the trade, the Reds were +225 favorites with the Cardinals right behind them at +250.
Other books have reacted similarly. At FanDuel, the Cardinals went from 35-1 for the World Series to 24-1, and their odds to claim the National League pennant went from +2000 to +1200.
The Rockies were not expected to be very competitive before trading their franchise third baseman, and their odds remain very high. At BetMGM, they are 80-1 for the World Series, tied for third highest in the league. In the NL West, where they compete with the defending champion Dodgers and upstart Padres, they are +3500, ranking only ahead of the +5000 Diamondbacks.
January 26 Update
When the Philadelphia Phillies traded a trio of young players to the Miami Marlins for catcher J.T. Realmuto nearly 24 months ago, it seemed unfathomable that they would let him walk in free agency after just two seasons in the City of Brotherly Love.
It took longer than was likely comfortable for the Philly faithful, but the star catcher is indeed sticking around, agreeing to a five-year deal on Tuesday that will pay him $115 million.
Perhaps it’s because the Phillies have long been the favorites to sign Realmuto, or maybe it’s because even with him, the team still has considerable question marks entering 2021, but the signing hardly registered in the betting market.
At DraftKings, the Phillies’ 30/1 World Series odds remained hours after the signing news broke, as did their 20/1 NL pennant odds and 7/1 odds to win the NL East. At FanDuel, the Phillies were 35/1 to win the World Series prior to news of the signing and moved … all the way to 33/1.
January 20 Update
The Toronto Blue Jays were a bit of a sleeping giant in free agency — a major market team with needs missing out on top options off the board.
They didn’t miss on perhaps the best.
The Blue Jays agreed to a six-year deal with former Astros outfielder George Springer, the biggest deal thus far this offseason.
The team is also interested in outfielder/DH Michael Brantley, but no deal has been finalized at time of publish.
The acquisition pushed the Blue Jays from 40-1 to win the World Series down to 30-1. They still have to compete with the Yankees and Rays, but indications are there’s more moves to be made north of the border.
At BetMGM, Toronto is now +450 to win the AL East after opening +600. The team is +1100 to win the AL Pennant, down from +1500.
The team also agreed to a deal with reliever Kirby Yates and earlier signed starting pitcher Robbie Ray.
Losing Springer caused a small adjustment from 18-1 to 20-1 for Houston. The White Sox hopped the Braves after signing closer Liam Hendriks. The Twins and Rays each dropped from 15-1 to 20-1.
January 7 Update
The New York Mets made their first big splash of the season acquiring Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco from the Indians in exchange for Amed Rosario, Andres Gimenez and prospects.
The Mets are still behind the Dodgers, Padres and Braves in the NL on the World Series oddsboard, but New York’s line dropped from 14-1 at DraftKings to 12-1 following the announcement of the trade.
Cleveland’s sell-off is in full swing. The Indians dropped from 22-1 to 35-1.
December 28 Update
If the San Diego Padres weren’t all in before, they are now.
On consecutive days, the Padres agreed to deals for starting pitchers Blake Snell and Yu Darvish.
The Padres are sending a prospect package built around catcher Francisco Mejia and pitcher Luis Patino to the Rays for Snell, who has three years and $39 million left on his deal. That was enough to move the Padres up the World Series oddsboard and lengthen the odds of the Rays.
Darvish is next, according to multiple reports. San Diego is expected to send four prospects and starting pitcher Zach Davies to the Cubs; none of the prospects are considered top-10 for San Diego.
The Padres are down to +1000 at DraftKings, behind only the Dodgers and Braves in the National League. However, they’re as low as +750 at PointsBet.
In the first sign of some sort of rebuild, the Cubs dropped from +2500 to +3300.
The Rays, coming off a World Series berth, dropped from +1100 to +1500 behind the White Sox in the AL.
One other notable move unrelated to this trade is the New York Mets dropping to 14-1 from 18-1. Unrelated, that is, unless the Padres acquiring Snell and Darvish takes a Trevor Bauer option off the table.
December 25 Update
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees are in a tier of their own on top of the World Series odds board heading into the new year.
With just James McCann off the board as far as significant free agents go, plenty will change between now and the start of spring training. But there doesn’t figure to be a change between the two currently at the top.
Not only are the Dodgers and Yankees arguably the two most talent teams in baseball, they’re public favorites on the futures market year in and year out.
The Dodgers are in on every key free agent and trade option because of their spending ability and savvy front office. The Yankees, meanwhile, are focused on bringing back batting champ DJ LeMahieu.
The Braves head the next tier of contenders at +1000. Atlanta needs to either bring back or replace Marcell Ozuna but has shored up the rotation with Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly.
The Rays are coming off a World Series loss to the Dodgers and are involved in cost-cutting rumors such as trading Blake Snell. Still, Tampa Bay always finds itself in the playoff conversation.
The Mets may be under the biggest spotlight this offseason with new owner Steve Cohen promising to bring change — and dollars — to New York’s other team. They’ve been linked to just about every top free agent and are expected to bring in at least one, if not two, of the top options.
Deeper down the odds board, the Washington Nationals (+3500) made a notable move acquiring former All-Star Josh Bell from the Pirates. Bell has big potential, as seen by his 2019 season, but his underlying numbers were worrisome in 2020. If he bounces back, he’s a perfect complement in the lineup with Juan Soto.
The Blue Jays are ‘in’ on many top free agents, signaling a willingness to spend and compete. That won’t be easy in the AL East with the Yankees, Rays and what should be an improved Red Sox team.
The bottom of the list has three teams at 100-1. Those odds will likely lengthen for the bottom teams once the season nears if you’re feeling a longshot.