The Boston Red Sox host the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 18, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Red Sox are favored by -165 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Diamondbacks are +153 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Diamondbacks vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Pick: Diamondbacks Under 3.5 (-120)
My Diamondbacks vs Red Sox best bet is on Arizona to record under 3.5 total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -149 | 8 -109o / -110u | +153 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +123 | 8 -109o / -110u | -165 |
- Diamondbacks vs Red Sox moneyline: Diamondbacks +153, Red Sox -165
- Diamondbacks vs Red Sox over/under: 8 (-109o / -110u)
- Diamondbacks vs Red Sox spread: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-149), Red Sox -1.5 (+123)
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| Merrill Kelly (RHP, ARI) | Stat | Ranger Suarez (LHP, BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-10 | W-L | 4-3 |
| -0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.4 |
| 5.11 / 7.13 | ERA / xERA | 3.25 / 3.59 |
| 5.72 / 4.99 | FIP / xFIP | 2.71 / 3.33 |
| 5.4% | K-BB% | 17.8% |
| 41.0% | GB% | 40.3% |
| .282 | BABIP | .308 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 101 | Location+ | 107 |
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview
The Diamondbacks (66-60) have lost two in a row, coming off an 11-1 blowout in the series opener against the Red Sox. Arizona is now 30-33 on the road on the season.
They're sending out veteran right-hander Merrill Kelly, who has struggled this season, putting up a 7.13 xERA and a -0.6 fWAR. This feels like a tough spot for them at Fenway Park.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Red Sox (67-58) came alive on Monday. After combining for only seven runs in their previous two games, they exploded for 11 runs vs. the D-Backs.
They're going with veteran left-hander Ranger Suarez, who has been excellent this season, putting up a 3.59 xERA and a 3.4 fWAR.
Diamondbacks vs Red Sox Pick, Betting Analysis
I'm taking Diamondbacks Under 3.5 for this game.
For one, Ranger Suarez looked back on track in his last turn, allowing one earned run in five innings against the Blue Jays. He went 81 pitches in that game, which was his most since returning from injury on July 26th. We can expect a full workload for this game, meaning there's a chance he can get to six innings.
That's good news for the Red Sox because of their fresh bullpen. Brayan Bello gave them 4.2 innings as a long reliever last night, so they didn't have to use any of their high-leverage arms. That means that Aroldis Chapman and Erik Miller are fresh for this game.
On top of that, we're getting favorable pitching weather tonight, with forecasts calling for 75-degree temperatures with 5.9 MPH winds blowing in, according to Action App.
Given Suarez's impressive underlying metrics (3.59 xERA), I wanted to zero in on his matchup with Arizona, while removing Merrill Kelly from the equation, since he has a 7.13 xERA. That's why I locked in on D-Backs team total rather than the full game under.
With an improving starter and a fresh bullpen, bet on the Red Sox to keep the D-Backs at bay for this game.
Pick: Diamondbacks Under 3.5 (-120)
