Astros vs Phillies Props For World Series Game 3
Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Lance McCullers Jr.
- Lance McCullers Jr. and Ranger Suarez take the mound to start Game 3 of the World Series.
- There are plenty of player prop options in tonight's game, so how should you play them?
- Our analyst breaks down his favorite player props below, including a strikeout total on the Houston starter.
Astros vs. Phillies Game 3 Odds
|Over/Under||8 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||8:03 p.m. ET|
Check out my three favorite player props for Game 3 of the World Series, courtesy of our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Lance McCullers Jr. Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+108)
Odds via FanDuel
It would seem unlikely Lance McCullers Jr. can clear this line in a World Series game, but the value is clearly on over 5.5 Ks with a plus-money price.
McCullers has cleared this number in six of his last seven starts, achieving five strikeouts in the one game he didn’t clear the number. He recently posted six strikeouts over 100 pitches against the Yankees with a whopping 34% CSW rate.
McCullers has a slider-sinker combination that play well off each other:
Lance McCullers, 95mph Two Seamer and 83mph Slider, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/plkJaCuLxO
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 16, 2022
He also has a bendy curveball that forced a 37% whiff rate this season.
McCullers has all the strikeout tools, which is why his strikeout rate is north of 25% this season. Meanwhile, the Phillies aren’t immune to strikeouts, having whiffed 116 times in 456 PAs this postseason (25.7 K%).
Projection systems are also high on McCullers, with three different models projecting him to go over, including:
- The Action Network’s Player Props Tool: 6.5 Ks
- FanGraphs SaberSim Projections: 5.9 Ks
- BallParkPal’s Pitcher Simulations: 5.9 Ks
But we get to bet this prop at above +110. And I’d bet on McCullers down to even money.
Pick: Over 5.5 Ks (+114) | Play to 5.5 (+100)
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Odds via FanDuel
While the matchup with McCullers doesn’t set up perfectly for Harper, this line is too high. Harper has cashed over 1.5 total bases 103 times in his last 200 games, good for a 52% hit rate that would imply +106 odds to the over.
Moreover, Harper is way too hot to ignore. He’s cashed his bases total in 10 of his 13 postseason appearances, piling up 41 bases and slashing .392/.426/.804 during the stretch.
Harper has been seeing the ball and hitting it all over the park.
Bryce Harper's 18 postseason hits…
𝗛𝗘. 𝗜𝗦. 𝗛𝗜𝗠. pic.twitter.com/sS4uWs3dWl
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) October 24, 2022
McCullers is an offspeed-heavy pitcher, relying on a slider-curveball-sinker combination while mixing in a changeup. Harper hits well against most pitches but has deficiencies against the curveball and sinker.
However, Harper only needs to sync up with one softball and crank it into the gap. I think that’s possible today, given Harper slugged over .500 against sliders and changeups this season.
Plus, BallParkPal’s hitter matchup simulations project that Harper has a 35% higher probability of an extra-base hit than a typical matchup.
Image credit: BallParkPal
This is likely why BallParkPal sets the fair line for Harper’s over 1.5 bases at just +120. Meanwhile, FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark Bryce for 1.51 bases today.
Yet we’re getting this line at over +140.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+145) | Play to 1.5 (+130)
Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Odds Via DraftKings
Did you know Yordan Alvarez has the fourth-highest OPS by LHBs against LHPs in history?
It’s true, per MLB.com:
So, surprisingly, facing Ranger Suarez instead of Noah Syndergaard is a bonus for Alvarez. Alvarez has already cooked Suarez for two doubles in three PAs against the southpaw.
Suarez is a soft-tossing lefty, and he’ll try to force ground balls with his sinker-changeup combination. But Alvarez is so good against southpaw breaking and offspeed pitches, having posted a .359 BA and a .641 SLG against those pitches in 2022.
Overall, Alvarez has posted a +14 Run Value on sinkers and changeups this season, with an xSLG of around .700 on the two pitches combined.
This is an excellent matchup for Alvarez. And if he doesn’t cash his bases against Suarez, he’ll have a better chance against a lackluster Philly bullpen.
FanGraphs SaberSim projections mark Alvarez for 1.81 bases today, while BallParkPal’s hitter matchup simulations make the fair price on his bases +137. Either way, there’s enough value in the DraftKings number to play it.
Pick: Over 1.5 TBs (+140)