The New York Mets host the Atlanta Braves on June 12, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
The Mets are favored by -126 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Braves are +108 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Braves vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Braves vs Mets Prediction
- Braves vs Mets Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-120)
My Braves vs Mets best bet is on the F5 run total under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Mets Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 8 -115o / -105u | +108 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 8 -115o / -105u | -126 |
- Braves vs Mets moneyline: Braves +108, Mets -126
- Braves vs Mets over/under: 8 (-115o / -105u)
- Braves vs Mets spread: Braves +1.5 (-205), Mets -1.5 (+168)
Braves vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| RHP Spencer Strider (ATL) | Stat | RHP Nolan McLean (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | W-L | 3-4 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 4.00/3.03 | ERA / xERA | 3.98/3.36 |
| 4.46/4.16 | FIP / xFIP | 3.72/3.52 |
| 16.2% | K-BB% | 18.4% |
| 29.4% | GB% | 45.6% |
| .263 | BABIP | .259 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 107 |
| 95 | Location+ | 97 |
Braves vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
When I look at this game, I see two starting pitchers whose underlying numbers are better than their surface stats, and two lineups that can be vulnerable to swing-and-miss stuff, which suggests we should see a lower-scoring game tonight.
Let's start with Spencer Strider. The Braves right-hander enters Friday with a 4.00 ERA, and on the surface, that might not jump off the page. Dig a little deeper, though, and the indicators suggest he's been significantly better than that number.
Strider is still generating elite strikeout rates, and his expected metrics remain among the strongest in baseball. His whiff rates are right in line with the dominant version we've seen over the past few seasons, while his expected wOBA allowed sits well below his actual results. In other words, he's been hurt more by sequencing and a few poorly timed mistakes than by hitters consistently squaring him up.
This is also a favorable matchup for him. The Mets have struggled offensively for much of the season and enter this series sitting below .500 despite some recent hot hitting throughout their lineup. New York's offense has been anchored by Carson Benge, Bo Bichette, and Juan Soto lately, but there are still plenty of strikeouts throughout this order.
The Mets have also been one of the weaker lineups in the National League against premium velocity, which is a problem when you're facing a pitcher who can still blow upper-90s fastballs past hitters and finish at-bats with a wipeout slider.
On the other side, Nolan McLean is a guy who is due for better results moving forward. The surface ERA sits at 3.98, but his underlying profile paints a much more encouraging picture.
McLean owns 82 strikeouts in just over 72 innings this season, good for a 27.4% strikeout rate, while maintaining an impressive 1.11 WHIP. His FIP sits lower than his ERA, another indicator that his true performance has been better than the runs allowed column suggests.
What's impressive about McLean is the arsenal. The former top prospect attacks hitters with a deep mix that includes a mid-90s fastball, sinker, cutter, curveball, changeup, and one of the better sweepers you'll find from a young pitcher.
The matchup is favorable for him as well.
Atlanta still has plenty of talent, but this lineup is certainly watered down a bit right now. Ronald Acuña Jr. is currently sidelined, and while the Braves remain dangerous, they're also a lineup that can become strikeout-prone against quality right-handed pitching.
McLean's ability to generate swings and misses with multiple secondary pitches gives him a legitimate path to neutralize Atlanta the first and second time through the order. The Braves are seeing him for the first time this season, and unfamiliarity often benefits a pitcher with a deep arsenal and strong swing-and-miss stuff.
Braves vs Mets Pick, Betting Analysis
When I bet an F5 Under, I'm looking for starters who can miss bats and avoid traffic. Both boxes are checked tonight. Strider still profiles as one of the premier strikeout pitchers in baseball, while McLean has already established himself as one of the better rookie arms in the National League.
Both pitchers have underlying metrics suggesting positive regression is coming, and both draw lineups vulnerable to power right-handed pitching.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-120)
