The San Diego Padres (76-61) host the Baltimore Orioles (61-76) on September 1, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Find my MLB betting preview and Orioles vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Our Orioles vs Padres Prediction
- Orioles vs Padres pick: F5 Under 4.5
Our Orioles vs Padres best bet is on the under total runs in the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Padres Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -155 |
Orioles vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Kyle Bradish (BAL) | Stat | RHP Dylan Cease (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-1 | W-L | 6-11 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.82/3.55 |
| 3.00/1.82 | ERA /xERA | 4.82/3.55 |
| 4.12/1.32 | FIP / xFIP | 3.73/3.55 |
| 0.67 | WHIP | 1.33 |
| 47.6% | K-BB% | 19.9% |
| 36.4% | GB% | 35.7% |
| 79 | Stuff+ | 116 |
| 140 | Location+ | 100 |
Orioles vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Baltimore Orioles travel to San Diego to open a three-game series against the Padres. Kyle Bradish will be taking the mound for Baltimore and Dylan Cease will be starting for San Diego. The Padres enter as -155 favorites on the moneyline, while the Orioles are +130 underdogs. The full-game total is currently set at 7.5 runs.
For bettors looking at early-inning action, this matchup stands out under the “Low Total Unders with Line Movement (F5)” system from Evan Abrams. This approach identifies first-five-inning unders in games where sharp money and line movement suggest limited scoring.
Key signals include a low closing total, a downward move from open to close of roughly half a run to one run, modest juice on the under, and calm wind conditions that suppress offense. When applied to this Orioles-Padres game, the system highlights potential value for a first-five-innings under 4.5.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5 (-140, Fanatics)
Orioles vs Padres Betting Trends
