The Toronto Blue Jays host the Baltimore Orioles on September 12, 2025. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MASN2.
The Blue Jays and Orioles will begin a three-game series with Chris Bassitt and Trevor Rogers on the mound, respectively.
Find my MLB betting preview and Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Orioles vs Blue Jays pick: Under 8 (-115)
My Orioles vs Blue Jays best bet is Under 8 total runs in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Blue Jays Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 -105o / -115u | +110 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 8 -105o / -115u | -130 |
Orioles vs Blue Jays Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Trevor Rogers (BAL) | Stat | RHP Chris Bassitt (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-2 | W-L | 11-8 |
| 3.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.2 |
| 1.51 / 3.06 | ERA / xERA | 3.97 / 4.13 |
| 2.39 / 3.44 | FIP / xFIP | 4.11 / 3.85 |
| 0.87 | WHIP | 1.32 |
| 18.4 | K-BB% | 15.5 |
| 47.4 | GB% | 45.6 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 106 | Location+ | 101 |
Orioles vs Blue Jays Preview
The Orioles have scored only 16 runs in their past six games for a 2.67 average. They are 23rd in wRC+ in September with an 87 rating.
They will go against Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt, who has been great in his last seven outings with a 3.08 ERA.
Bassitt also has a stellar 2.76 ERA at home this season, and he just held the Yankees to three hits and no runs in five complete innings in his last start.
Toronto scored six runs yesterday, but the offense had been a bit quiet before that. They have produced an average of 3.2 runs in their past five games.
They will face Trevor Rogers, one of the best pitchers in the league this year. The Orioles lefty has a 1.51 ERA across his past 15 outings, the same as his overall 2025 ERA, which is evidence of his consistency.
Rogers has allowed more than one run in just four of his starts this year, and more than two runs in only one.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation to go with the under.
This system capitalizes on an overlooked weather edge in MLB totals betting. It focuses on regular-season games where elevated humidity —ranging from 45 to 95— intersects with moderate temperatures and neutral wind patterns.
Despite assumptions that humidity boosts offense, public bettors are fading these conditions, which actually correlate with suppressed scoring in certain environments.
In these spots, the home team has stayed under in recent games, with their five-game over rate sitting below 40, suggesting low offensive rhythm.
The market has also subtly corrected, with the total dropping from open to close, and the overall percentage of bets on the over remains modest, between 6 and 29. These indicators combine to identify under-the-radar under spots where public narratives misalign with actual scoring trends.
Pick: Under 8 (-115, BetMGM)
Orioles vs Blue Jays Betting Trends
