Wednesday’s MLB Over/Under: Evaluating Andrew Heaney’s Final Start of 2018
Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Andrew Heaney (28) reacts after a pitch during the first inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park.
Betting odds: Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
- Over/Under: 8.5
- First pitch: 10:07 p.m. ET
- Probable Pitchers: Yohander Mendez (2-2, 6.04 ERA) vs. Andrew Heaney (9-10, 4.21 ERA)
Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 99-71-4, +20.55 units
Yesterday’s Result: Phillies-Rockies under 11, Velasquez vs. Bettis (loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
Now that we’re well into the season’s final week, it’s time to say goodbye to starting pitchers who will make their final appearance this season. Such is the case Wednesday evening when the Rangers and Angels wrap up their three-game series at the Big A, with the latter looking to pull off the sweep.
That effort will come behind starter Andrew Heaney, who has been one of the lone bright spots this year on a severely banged-up pitching staff. His numbers don’t jump off the page but he’s been fairly consistent in bagging a career-best nine wins to go with a respectable 4.21 ERA and 8.84 K/9.
Unfortunately, Heaney is going to have to go through his toughest opponent if he wants to wrap up his campaign on a positive note. Of the teams he has faced more than twice in his career, Heaney’s highest ERA is against Texas (7.50) with a 1-3 record in six career assignments. Two of those took place this season, with the Rangers tallying 10 runs combined in those outings.
In Heaney’s defense, both outings came on the road in Arlington, where he has not been as successful. In fact, the 27-year-old is 2-7 on the road with a 5.06 ER and 1.29 WHIP in 2018.
At home, however, he’s been much better: 7-3 record with a desirable 3.28 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Opponents are also only hitting .231 off the left-hander at Angel Stadium.
Heaney may be in a position to improve upon his numbers opposite Texas right away, as they rank 20th in team batting average (.239) versus southpaws. The Rangers also strike out once every 3.88 at-bats with a lefty on the hill, something that can be beneficial to a strikeout artist such as Heaney.
The Angels also struggle against left-handers, a trend that has been glaring throughout the duration of the season. Entering Wednesday, in fact, they remain dead-last in team batting average (.224) in this department while also being one of five teams with an on-base percentage below .300 versus lefties (.297).
That could pave the way for promising rookie Yohander Mendez to end his season in a successful manner, as he prepares to make his fifth career start.
Mendez’s last time out was one to forget, as the Rays shelled him for eight runs (seven earned) in less than four innings. Before that, though, Mendez was pretty solid, yielding just a pair of total runs in his previous three starts, spanning 15 innings.
We’ll bank on Mendez getting back closer to form, and a perk of this under bet is that we can get away with him not being at his sharpest. So long as Heaney performs like I expect him to in finishing off his campaign, it figures to be enough to keep the final score below 8.5 in the end.
Just wait until first pitch to see if it goes up to 9 — I’ll still be on it even if it does not.
Play: UNDER 8.5/9