Blue Jays vs Rays Odds, Prediction | Opening Day Moneyline Pick

Here's everything you need to know about Blue Jays vs Rays on Thursday, March 28 — including odds and a prediction.

Opening Day is finally here and in a classic American East League clash, the Toronto Blue Jays start their season on the road in Tampa Bay. The latest Blue Jays vs Rays odds have the Rays as -142 favorites on the moneyline; the over/under is set at 7.5 total runs for the starting pitching duel between Jose Berrios and Zach Eflin.

There were no major offseason additions from either club, both of whom made their way to the postseason last year.

In what is expected to be a loaded and tight AL East race, how should you bet Opening Day between two World Series hopefuls? Find out in my Blue Jays vs Rays preview, which includes my Blue Jays vs Rays moneyline prediction.

Due to Kevin Gausman's delayed start to the preseason, Toronto has tabbed Jose Berrios as its Opening Day starter. Based on reports, Gausman (shoulder) should not miss a turn in the rotation.

From top to bottom this is nearly an identical roster from last season. Bowden Francis replaces Alek Manoah (shoulder) in the starting rotation after an impressive spring. Through 14 innings, the right-hander posted a 1.93 ERA and 7.7 K/9. The only other changes: Justin Turner will slide into the starting DH role while Isiah Kiner-Falefa replaces Matt Chapman (Giants) at third base.

That brings us back to Berrios, fresh off a bounce-back season. It seemed as though all was lost for the right-hander, but he posted a 3.65 ERA and saw an 8% drop in hard-hit rate. Underlying metrics still pose a semi-concern for Berrios, as his xERA sat around 4.5 and he sat around the bottom quarter of all pitchers in xBA.

It is also worth noting that Berrios was much better pitching at the Rogers Centre (3.30 ERA, 4.0 K/BB) than on the road (3.97 ERA, 3.14 K/BB).

In the bullpen, the Blue Jays enter shorthanded as both closer Jordan Romano (elbow) and set-up man Erik Swanson (forearm) will open the season on the injured list. There's no clear-cut closing option to start the season, though it'll likely be a mixture of Chad Green and Yimi García receiving the first go-around.

Toronto's offense should remain a strength once again here. The Blue Jays finished third in terms of wRC+ with a bottom-5 strikeout rate. That came despite a down year from Vlad Guerrero Jr. — he did battle a knee injury that led to a drop-off in power — who finished with 26 home runs and a .264 average.

Expect Bo Bichette to remain among MLB's best hitters, finishing inside the top 10 in hits last year. It's not a star-studded cast, but one that found its way on base (third, .329). It'll be interesting to see how well Turner performs in his 16th big league season. He saw a power surge — 23 HRs with Boston, vs. 13 the year prior — and should find his way right into the middle of Toronto's lineup.

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One after another, pitching injuries piled up for the Tampa Bay Rays over the last season. Entering Opening Day, this is a starting rotation you may not recognize.

Shane Baz, Taj Bradley, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen will all begin the season on the injured list. Shane McClanahan is out of the year. Tyler Glasnow was also traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers. As a result, breakout star Zach Eflin has been tabbed as Tampa's No. 1.

While a veteran in the league, it all came together for Eflin in his first season with Tampa Bay. The right-hander posted career lows in xERA (3.02), xBA (.222) and ranked inside the top 5% of all pitchers in chase rate. Thanks to elite control and improving stuff, Eflin has solidified himself as a big-league ace.

The Rays should have a strong backend of the bullpen once again. This was a position group in flux and had its issues at times last season — also battling injuries — but finished the second half as the best relief unit in terms of xFIP (3.68). Pete Fairbanks returns as the closer.

Josh Lowe will not be ready for Opening Day as he battles an oblique injury, but this offense is nearly the same exact group that finished 2023. To address its lack of infield depth — a big hole post-Wander Franco — Tampa Bay signed Amed Rosario and swapped Luke Raley for Seattle's Jose Caballero.

You may look at the names on this roster and think the offense should struggle and that's fair. But you'd be wrong. The Rays finished No. 5 in terms of wRC+. Even in the second half of the season without Franco, Tampa Bay remained a top offense in baseball. Much of that had to do with the breakout seasons of Yandy Diaz (.330 average, 22 HRs) and Isaac Paredes (31 HRs).

Randy Arozarena had a down year but should bounce back and Jose Siri remains a name to keep an eye on in terms of potential breakout bat.

It seems like every season, the Tampa Bay Rays are written off before Opening Day. But time and time again, Kevin Cash proves the doubters wrong and the Rays weasel their way into the playoffs. I expect that to repeat again in 2024 as Tampa Bay starts off with an Opening Day win over Toronto.

Eflin is an underrated arm and projects much better than Berrios. He was also much more effective at Tropicana Field (3.30 ERA, 8.57 K-BB) than on the road (3.77, 6.6). As much as Berrios improved last season, he was nowhere near as effective as Eflin.

The offenses should be close to a wash and then when you factor in the bullpen availability, and the Rays should be heavier favorites here. Give me the better pitching and better manager to start the season strong with an Opening Day win in front of the Tampa Bay faithful.

Pick: Rays -130 | Back to -140