MLB Odds & Picks for Blue Jays vs. White Sox: Expect Lots of Offense in AL Duel

Blue Jays vs. White Sox Odds

A pitching matchup that features two struggling righties squaring off against two accomplished offenses should prove to be an entertaining one — and one that is very close to call.

That's exactly what we get when the Blue Jays take on the White Sox on Monday night.

So, where do we head when looking for value in this game? Let's dig deeper into both sides.

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Blue Jays Rolling at the Plate

Technically, Toronto has split its last eight games and enters as the winner of seven games in 13 tries. On top of that, the Blue Jays' offensive output over the last two weeks has been exceptional; they rank third in wRC+ and have hit a league-best .291.

With that said, they've come back down to Earth ever so slightly. The Jays have dropped three of their last four, falling first to Baltimore, 10-2, before losing two against the Yankees by a collective score of 16-3.

It wasn't until they went down, 8-2, on Sunday that this offense finally woke up, erasing the six-run deficit to take the game, 10-9.

Speaking of coming back to Earth, Jose Berrios' luck has finally caught up to him in 2022. The righty has had an expected ERA over four runs every season since 2018 but has managed to stay afloat during that time thanks to some solid strikeout numbers. Last season, he registered a 3.52 ERA with a 4.09 xERA.

This season, the strikeouts have dissipated and the hard-hit balls have come in bunches. Berrios is sporting a career-worst 47% hard-hit rate and 11.9% barrel rate, both of which are in the bottom 8% of the league. With his strikeout rate falling from 26.1% to 20.5%, things are very dire.

With all of that said, Berrios has actually been effective in his last three outings, going at least seven innings each time and allowing no more than three runs in a start. But the White Sox may grade out as a better team than the Twins, Tigers and Orioles.

What to Expect From Lance Lynn

Just narrowly outdone by Toronto, the White Sox are up in sixth place when it comes to wRC+ over the last two weeks. They, too, are hitting .291, though they've struck out a bit more than Toronto and have a slightly worse slugging percentage.

Still, a team could do much worse than striking out in 23.3% of plate appearances and owning a hard-hit rate that sits a shade under 39%.

The White Sox have won four of their last six, sweeping the Tigers and losing two out of three to the Astros.

The series was incredibly even, though, with Chicago getting rocked in the first game and then turning around and winning, 7-0, on Saturday. Sunday Night Baseball saw a poor inning from Michael Kopech decide the game.

There may be more than one bad inning on Monday night with Lance Lynn on the hill. He was a revelation in 2021, but in his first start back from injury against the Tigers, he yielded three runs on 10 hits over 4 1/3 innings.

Toronto will be a much tougher test, and it's hard to figure out where the righty is right now.

Blue Jays-White Sox Pick

I'm not very trusting of Lynn right now, particularly against what is arguably the hottest offense in baseball at the moment.

I'm not exactly a huge fan of Berrios, either, and think it's a bad idea to lay the juice with a pitcher who has consistently broken the trust of bettors this year.

With that, I think it's time to turn to the total.  Both offenses are in the top six in wRC+ over the last two weeks, and with the erratic nature of both pitchers here, I think the chances one of them blows up is very high.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-120)

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