World Series Game 6 Odds & Picks: 3 Best Bets For Braves vs. Astros
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Adam Duvall celebrates his grand slam in Game 5.
Braves vs. Astros Game 6 Odds
|Time||8:09 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Braves are underdogs on Tuesday as they get their second shot at clinching the World Series title tonight. The series shifts to Houston, where the Astros are eager to force a deciding Game 7 on Wednesday.
Atlanta sends Max Fried to the mound on full rest, while Houston will start rookie Luis Garcia on short rest in an effort to extend the series. With the travel day on Monday, bullpens should be rested and both teams will have all-hands-on-deck in this critical matchup.
Our analysts have three different angles to consider betting this game, including a first five team total, a strikeout prop and a moneyline.
Here are our three best bets for World Series Game 6 between the Atlanta Braves and Houston Astros.
Astros First Five Innings Over 2 (-140)
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DJ James: Both Max Fried and Luis Garcia struggled in their first World Series starts, but Fried was far worse, allowing six earned runs in five innings. Fried allowed five in 4 2/3 innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS.
The Astros had a 117 wRC+ versus left-handers on the season and did not seem fazed when Fried toed the rubber last time. This trend has not seemed to slow down after the Astros have seen plenty of the Braves’ lefty-heavy bullpen at this point. In fact, they scored all nine of their runs off of southpaws on Sunday night.
Tyler Matzek has allowed one earned run in 3 1/3 innings and A.J. Minter has allowed four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings. The best of Atlanta’s bullpen encounters a major mismatch with this Houston lineup at home.
Luis Garcia Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-160)
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Sean Zerillo: Luis Garcia allowed six runs in his final regular-season start, five in his ALDS start against Chicago, and five more in his Game 2 ALCS matchup against Boston, when he left early with knee soreness. However, Garcia made a mechanical tweak before Game 6 against Boston and threw harder than he had all season (peaked 97.8 mph, 1.6 mph above his previous three outings; averaged 2.7 mph above season-long average).
In Game 3 against Atlanta, Garcia was effective despite subpar command (3 2/3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 6 K) and matched his peak velocity figure (97.8 mph) from his previous start.
The righty throws his fastball or cutter more than 2/3 of the time (67.2%) combined, and that is the one way to neutralize Atlanta’s offense, which ranked 21st against fastballs and 27th against cutters (on a per-pitch basis) after revamping its offense at the trade deadline.
He increased that combined fastball/cutter usage rate to 87% against Boston in Game 6 (from 70% in Game 2) and dialed it to the same degree against Atlanta (39 fastballs, 20 cutters, 84% combined).
Garcia posted an elite 42% called strike plus whiff rate in Game 3, with 15 of his 16 whiffs by way of the fastball or cutter. Per Inside Edge, opponents have swung at 20 of Garcia’s cutters this postseason and whiffed on 17 of those swings:
Garcia has the appropriate pitch mix to stifle this Atlanta offense, and without the worry of a pinch-hitting situation in an AL park, I’m happy to target his strikeout total Over 3.5 (-160), despite limited rest.
He should be able to turn over the Atlanta lineup twice (18 batters faced). Between his strikeout rate (26.4%) and Atlanta’s K% against righties (24% after the trade deadline), Garcia would have a rough projection of 4.3 to 4.75 strikeouts.
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Kenny Ducey: If you’ve been following these best bets from game-to-game, you’ll know that I’ve been on the Braves in every contest. While I do see value in them as the road underdogs here, it might be the last time I take them with a tough ask on the horizon should they lose this game.
Max Fried was one of the very best pitchers in baseball in the second half of the season with a 1.74 ERA, and for at least one start this postseason he looked like that guy. He had an OK performance in Game 1 of the NLCS, and then the wheels fell off in his next two starts. Do we buy into the larger sample, or the two games?
I’m inclined to believe in the larger data set here, and I’m also encouraged by the fact that Fried was great on the road this season with a 3.14 ERA and a great 4.56 strikeout to walk ratio. The Astros have walked 19 times in 169 plate appearances so far in this series, good for a walk rate near 10%, so being able to limit traffic via the free pass should help Fried. That, and the fact that the Astros have still hit just two homers in the World Series and have significantly cooled. It’s doable for Fried.
With that, I think we’re in the clear to fade Luis Garcia. He has been awful since June, really, walking more than two hitters per game over his last six starts of the year and carrying that form over into the postseason where he was rocked in his first two outings.
There are very few times where he’s pitched well against good offenses since June — one of them was against the Mariners, and then the other was against the Red Sox in Game 6 of the ALCS. He walked four hitters and allowed three hits in 3 ⅔ in Game 3 of this series.
Garcia was lucky to escape that outing with just one earned run, and shouldn’t be so lucky this time around. Atlanta will be heading to a hitter’s park and should punish Garcia for the number of fly balls he’s been allowing.