Braves vs. Marlins MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Why Fried Will Dominate the Miami Hitters (Friday, August 12)

Braves vs. Marlins MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Why Fried Will Dominate the Miami Hitters (Friday, August 12) article feature image

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Fried.

  • The Braves are heavy road favorites on Friday against the Marlins.
  • This sets up to be an intriguing matchup with Max Fried and Pablo López dueling on the mound.
  • D.J. James breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Braves vs. Marlins Odds

Braves Odds-165
Marlins Odds+140
Over/Under7.5 (-110/-110)
Time6:40 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Pablo López has been the second-most effective starting pitcher in the Marlins' rotation, and he will face Max Fried and the Braves on Friday. The Marlins are currently plagued with injuries, with the bulk of their batting order on the Injured List. This has led to abysmal performances against left-handed pitching as they only have a 45 wRC+ against lefties over the last month, which ranks dead last in baseball.

Atlanta, on the other hand, has been pretty consistent. The Braves have a 102 wRC+ against righties. This is not spectacular, but it has been slightly above average.

Fried is definitely the better of these two starting pitchers, but both are more than solid. The key angle in this game with such a low total is to target the most significant edge, which is the Miami offense and its dependably weak offensive production.

Fried and the Braves Should Thrive

Fried has been the ace for the Braves for some time. He ranks in the 91st percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 95th percentile in Barrel Percentage. Pair that with a lineup, like Miami’s, which has not performed, and there will not be many runs manufactured. Fried holds a 2.60 ERA and 2.88 xERA, and both are phenomenal.

Jazz Chisholm, Jorge Soler, Jon Berti, and Brian Anderson are all on the IL, which encompasses the bulk of the power in the Marlins’ batting lineup. Of the players with at least 10 plate appearances against southpaws, only Jesús Aguilar, JJ Bleday, and Garrett Cooper have a .340+ xwOBA. The rest of the lineup has done nothing of note, and the results will be even more sour with Fried on the bump.

The Braves' bullpen may have some issues, but they have three pitchers under a 3.00 xFIP who can fill in for Fried when he exits the game. Since April 19, Fried has only two starts where he went fewer than six innings of work, so he should be fine against this Miami lineup.

Marlins Bullpen Has Heated Up

On the other side, López has some problems with consistency this season. He gave up nine hits to the Chicago Cubs in his last outing, but he does rank in the top half of the league in Average Exit Velocity and in the top 25% of the league in Hard-Hit Rate. His Chase Rate is also elite, which may cause swings and misses for the Braves. They rank fourth in Chase Rate, only behind the Tigers, White Sox, and Orioles in the majors.

Manny Piña, Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia, and Adam Duvall are on the IL. The Braves do only have four batters over the .340 xwOBA threshold, so this is not much better than the Marlins. However, most of their order is above a the .310 mark, so they can at least piece together strong at bats.

This becomes difficult to project because of the Marlins' bullpen and their recent successes. Yes, this team can barely hit right now, but they have a 3.61 xFIP in relief since July 12. They have the arms to assist López in his endeavors on Friday night, so avoiding the Braves on the moneyline is the wise call.

Braves-Marlins Pick

Fried is the better pitcher of the two, but López matches up well with the Braves' order and how often they swing and miss. Furthermore, the Marlins' bullpen has been relatively sharp over the past month.

Take the under on the Marlins Team Total from Under 3 (-110) to 3 (-140). They cannot hit lefties, and Fried is among the best. The Braves have enough relievers to come into this game after Fried, but there is a fair chance he could go eight innings.

Pick: Marlins Team Total Under 3 (-110) | Play to 3 (-145)

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