MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Betting Preview (Tuesday, June 22)
Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Ronald Acuña Jr.
- After splitting a doubleheader on Monday, the Braves and Mets are back at it at Citi Field
- Charlie Morton looks to build off a stellar start his last time out, as he starts opposite Marcus Stroman.
- Kevin Davis breaks down where he sees betting value in this matchup, delivering his analysis and pick below.
Braves vs. Mets Odds
|Over/Under||7 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||Tuesday, 7:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds updated Tuesday at 3 p.m. ET and via BetMGM|
Before the season started, the National League East divisional championship was projected to be between the Atlanta Braves and the New York Mets, who face off on Tuesday night at Citi Field.
At 37-30, the Mets have a four-game lead in the NL East and are five ahead of Atlanta, which is in fourth place at 34-37. New York is the only team in the division with a winning record.
This four-game series in Queens is expected to be a competitive series, which is clear after a doubleheader on Monday was split.
The Braves have a strong lineup with weak starting pitching, while the Mets are the exact opposite, thriving on the mound and struggling at the plate due to a plethora of injuries.
Both teams are strong on the mound on Tuesday night with Charlie Morton starting opposite Marcus Stroman, so let’s see where we can find a betting edge.
The average MLB team this season is allowing 4.42 runs per game. Atlanta, though, entered Monday with the fifth-worst mark in the NL at 4.83 runs allowed. The Braves are well-positioned in this one, though, with Morton on the mound.
In his last start, Morton pitched 7 2/3 shutout innings against the St. Louis Cardinals, allowing only three hits. Morton has a 6-3 record on the season with a 4.03 ERA, and a 3.57 xFIP. Over his last 12 seasons, Morton has never had an xFIP above 4.08. He has quietly been one of baseball’s most reliable starting pitchers throughout his long career.
The issue for the Braves is going to be over how long they’ll be able to depend on the 37-year-old right-hander on Tuesday.
Morton has more than five innings in just three of his last eight starts, which leaves the Braves vulnerable with one of the worst bullpens in the league. Atlanta’s relief corps has a 4.51 xFIP, which is the eighth-worst number in the majors this season, entering Monday’s doubleheader.
The Braves’ lineup, meanwhile, has done very well this season. Atlanta entered Monday averaging 4.81 runs per game, which is 0.39 more runs per game than the average MLB team. With Ronald Acuña Jr., Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies, the Braves have a strong offensive core.
New York Mets
Stroman has a 6-5 record with a 2.34 ERA, but his 3.31 xFIP indicates he is not as “untouchable” as he seems to have been this season. Additionally, he is averaging only 7.97 strikeouts per nine innings.
Backing Stroman up is a Mets bullpen that is arguably the best in the league. New York’s relievers entered Monday with a 3.73 xFIP which is tied for the lowest in the league. Additionally, the Mets’ ‘pen averages 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings, the seventh-best mark in the majors entering Monday’s games.
While the Mets are covered by great pitchers for Tuesday night, their likely run support is questionable. New York’s lineup is averaging 3.72 runs per game. which is the second-fewest runs per game in the league.
Due to injuries and struggles up and down the lineup, Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor are the Mets’ only above-average hitters this season, and even they’re underperforming compared to their usual production.
Based on the full game odds, linemakers have gotten the odds for Tuesday’s game correct. Without vigorish, the Braves should only be narrow favorites because of the starting pitching matchup. However, with a vig, neither side is worth betting on.
Despite not seeing any value in the full game money line, my model likes the Braves first five innings money line at a surprisingly better -105 price. With what I see as an edge in the starting-pitching matchup and a strong lineup, they should be in the lead after the end of the fifth innings. It’s best to bet on Atlanta before its bullpen gets too involved, also.
I like the first-five innings moneyline at -105, and I would bet it up to -115.
Pick: Braves First Five Innings -105 (play up to -115)
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