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MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Braves vs. Nationals: Will Atlanta Extend Win Streak?

MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Braves vs. Nationals: Will Atlanta Extend Win Streak? article feature image
Credit:

Ethan Mito/Clarkson Creative/Getty Images. Pictured: Ian Anderson #36 of the Atlanta Braves.

  • The red-hot Atlanta Braves look to extend their 11-game win streak in Washington D.C. against the Nationals Monday.
  • The Braves are slight favorites (-138 odds) on the road against the struggling Nats.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and gives his betting pick for tonight.

Braves vs. Nationals Odds

Braves Odds -138
Nationals Odds +128
Over/Under 10 (-105/-115)
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via WynnBET. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the first matchup of this three-game NL East divisional series as the Washington Nationals host the Atlanta Braves. This matchup is the fourth meeting between these two teams this season as the Nationals have won two of the first three games.

Will the Nationals prevail once again, or can the Braves even the season series?

Solid Pitching Should Buoy the Braves

The Atlanta Braves enter this contest amidst an outstanding winning streak as they have won 11 straight games. Out of those 11 wins, nine have been by at least a two-run margin.

I expect this trend to continue as right-hander Ian Anderson is slated to take the mound for the Braves. Through 11 starts this season, Ian Anderson is 5-3 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.

While those surface-level stats are not the best, Anderson’s metrics suggest that positive regression is looming. This season, Anderson boasts a .320 xwOBA, .249 xBA, and .397 xSLG.

Atlanta has won in six of Anderson’s last eight starts (75%). Following Anderson is one of the league’s best bullpens. Since May 1, the Braves’ relief pitching ranks second in the league in ERA, fifth in BA, fifth in SLG, and fourth in wOBA.


Nationals Don’t Have Enough Quality Arms

The Washington Nationals enter this matchup in poor form as they have lost eight of their last 13 games (62%). Of those eight losses, seven were by at least a two-run margin (88%).

I expect this trend to continue as right-hander Josiah Gray is slated to take the mound for the Nationals. Through 12 starts this season, Gray is 6-4 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.

Some of Gray’s underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is not coming anytime soon. This season, Gray possesses a .353 xwOBA and .496 xSLG.

Following Gray is a fade-worthy bullpen. Since May 1, the Nationals’ relief pitching ranks just 24th in the league in ERA, 26th in BA, and 18th in wOBA.

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Braves-Nationals Pick

Entering this series with the longest active winning streak in the league, we have to keep backing Atlanta until they fail us. This game should be a good opportunity to keep the win streak going as Gray has struggled for the Nationals this season while Anderson is due for some positive regression.

Atlanta also boasts a huge advantage in relief pitching. While the Nationals have won two of their three meetings this season, Atlanta has won seven of the last 10 meetings overall (70%).

Of those seven wins, four have been by at least a two-run margin (57%).

Pick: Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+112) | Play up to (-110)

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