Brewers vs Phillies Odds, Prediction: Fade Aaron Nola as a Favorite
Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Willy Adames and Brice Turang.
Brewers vs Phillies Odds
Though he's struggled in his last two starts, veteran right-hander Julio Teheran has been mostly solid and a nice midseason pickup for the Milwaukee Brewers.
On offense, the Brewers have shown lately they can handle right-handed pitching. They will need to do so again against Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies in Tuesday night's series opener at Citizens Bank Park.
Like Teheran, Nola has been tagged in a couple of his recent starts, but given his status as Philadelphia's ace, it makes sense the home team is favored.
However, if the Brewers are able to close the gap on offense, an aspect of the game the Phillies usually have an edge over opponents, then they hold value.
Teheran has a 3.64 ERA with a 3.90 xERA. Those numbers have only just shot up after he allowed six and seven runs in back-to-back starts. In his prior six outings before those blowups, he didn't allow more than two earned runs in any start.
Despite yielding plenty of runs in those last two outings, Teheran still managed to log at least five innings, which can be attributed to his ability to throw strikes. He owns a 4.9% walk rate and 17.3% strikeout rate. He also holds an Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate that rank in the top half of the league.
When it comes to hitting, the Brewers have typically lagged behind opponents. But in July, they have a 12.9% walk rate vs. 19.2% strikeout rate off righties and are producing stronger results with a 104 wRC+.
Since June 18, they have seven batters with at least a .315 xwOBA (minimum 10 plate appearances vs. righties). Jahmai Jones and Tyrone Taylor have not seen much action against right-handers, but they can both hit the ball hard when called upon.
Christian Yelich goes 439 feet!
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) July 16, 2023
The Brewers bullpen is starting to look phenomenal.
In July, they own a 2.76 xFIP with a 30.6% strikeout rate. Their entire active bullpen has a sub-4.00 xFIP, so even if Teheran was to have an uncharacteristically short appearance, they have the arms to back him.
While he's better than Teheran, two of Nola's last three outings have been subpar. His 4.39 ERA does not tell the entire story as he has a 3.74 xERA, but these numbers are not all too different than Teheran’s.
Nola has similar ranks in Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate. He rarely walks hitters and strikes out more batters, but there is not enough of a gap to justify this heavily weighted line toward Philadelphia.
The Phillies, who are very much in play for an NL Wild Card spot, can hit — they own a 118 wRC+ and .814 OPS in July against righties.
Those marks top the Brewers, but when looking at the last month against right-handed pitching, the Phils have six hitters with at least a .315 xwOBA. They have a few more hitters who have fewer than 10 plate appearances, but the difference between the two offenses is negligible.
The Philly bullpen is worse than Milwaukee’s. The Phils have a 4.57 xFIP with three active arms below a 4.00 xFIP.
José Alvarado and Seranthony Domínguez being on the injured list gives Milwaukee the edge.
Brewers vs. Phillies Betting Pick
- Teheran and Nola have both struggled lately and have comparable expected stats.
- The Brewers and Phillies have relatively even batting numbers over the last month.
- Milwaukee has the superior bullpen.
So … why exactly are the Phillies favored by so much?
Take the Brewers on the moneyline, and play them to +140.
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