Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Pick, Prediction: Total Has Value for Thursday Matinee (April 28)

Brewers vs. Pirates Odds, Pick, Prediction: Total Has Value for Thursday Matinee (April 28) article feature image

John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Freddy Peralta

  • The Brewers and Pirates are set to face off in the finale of a three-game set.
  • Freddy Peralta and José Quintana are expected to limit runs in a pitcher's duel.
  • D.J. James previews shares his prediction and best bet below.

Brewers vs. Pirates Odds

Brewers Odds-180
Pirates Odds+150
Over/Under7.5 (-115/-105)
Time12:35 p.m. ET
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Brewers and Pirates will face off in Pittsburgh for the finale of a three-game set.

Freddy Peralta has struggled to start the season, but threw well in his last outing and will look to continue that success. José Quintana has been relatively sharp in the early going, but his walk rate is worth monitoring. He holds a 5.75 xERA versus a 3.86 ERA. However, the Brewers have been abysmal against southpaws this season with a 73 wRC+. The Pirates have not been much better against righties (89 wRC+).

Peralta is too strong of a pitcher to flounder while facing this Pittsburgh lineup, while Quintana just needs to avoid the walks and he can pitch to weak contact. The under is the correct play in this scenario.

Brewers Pitching Leads the Way

Peralta was a Cy Young Award contender last season for a reason. He can strike out hitters with the best of them and does not permit much hard contact. His Whiff Rate still ranks in the 86th percentile in 2022. This signals good things to come for the 25-year-old.

Now, the Pirates have not had much luck with right-handers this season. They have three consistent starters who have been able to manage strong plate appearances against right-handers — Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ben Gamel and Diego Castillo are the only three hitters who have posted a .335+ xwOBA against righties. If Peralta uses his mixture of his slider, curveball and changeup effectively, he will be able to keep this fastball-only hitting team in check.

After Peralta, the Brewers’ bullpen ranks amongst the best in the league for a reason. Milwaukee relievers have a 3.60 xFIP and are the sixth most valuable at the moment (fWAR). Much of this has to do with Josh Hader, but Devin Williams has posted four straight scoreless appearances since getting hit earlier in April. It's also encouraging that arms like Brad Boxberger and Trevor Gott have started the season well.

Pittsburgh has fared well with lefties this season, but Hader is unlike most of the pitchers they have faced. This should not be of much concern.

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Limiting Walks Key for Quintana

Quintana has actually been far better at inducing weak contact this season. His Average Exit Velocity is only 85.7 MPH, which is a career low. His Hard Hit rate is only 32.6%, too. As mentioned above, the walks are the problem here and Quintana has walked eight in 14 innings.

The Brewers, however, rank 20th in walks this season. Look for Quintana to have another decent outing as this Milwaukee team has yet to show it can hit southpaws.

The Pirates also own a shocking 3.81 xFIP on the young season. The back of the bullpen has done its job. David Bednar, Wil Crowe, Chris Stratton and Dillon Peters have all been reliable. Milwaukee has not shown an ability to hit righties, either, so these pitchers should take care of business.

Lastly, Pittsburgh ranks 22nd in Exit Velocity, 27th in home runs and 22nd in xwOBA. The Pirates will not hit well against Peralta, who is a mismatch for them.

Brewers-Pirates Pick

Neither of these teams should be able to hit against the other. Peralta is far too good to pitch as poorly as he did in his first two starts and Quintana just needs to continue to induce weak contact. Neither team hits the ball particularly hard and the bottom of each lineup is absolutely brutal. Take the under in this game at 7.5 (-105), and play to 7 (-110).

Pick: Under 7.5 (-105) | play to 7 (-110)

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