Cardinals vs Royals Odds | Game 1 Pick & Prediction

Cardinals vs Royals Odds | Game 1 Pick & Prediction article feature image

Logan Riely/Getty Images. Pictured: Andre Pallante.

Cardinals vs Royals Odds | Game 1 Pick & Prediction

Wednesday, July 10
1:45 p.m. ET
St. Louis Cardinals Odds
MoneylineOver/UnderRun Line
Kansas City Royals Odds
MoneylineOver/UnderRun Line
-120o / +100u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Alec Marsh has been awful for the Kansas City Royals this year, and it does not look like that will change on Wednesday. After Tuesday’s postponement, Marsh is still slated to take on the St. Louis Cardinals, who have hit righties well lately. Since Marsh struggles with control, hard contact, and keeping the ball on the ground, the Cardinals should have their ducks in a row.

Andrew Pallante will toss for the Cardinals. Pallante has been a nice back-end starter for the Cardinals. He has not done anything too impressive, but he is elite in keeping the ball on the ground. Since Kansas City has not hit well lately, he should have a favorable matchup.

Check out our MLB Betting Hub for more previews from today's slate.

St. Louis Cardinals

Marsh has a 4.57 ERA and 5.33 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is nearly 91 mph. His Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 25th percentile, and his Barrel rate is in the 12th percentile. Since his strikeout rate and walk rate are also below average, facing a hot lineup does not bode well for him. His ground-ball rate is well below average also shows a stark difference between him and Pallante.

The Royals have been awful against righties in the last month. They have an 86 wRC+, 20% strikeout rate, and 7.7% walk rate. They have five batters above a .320 xwOBA with a few right below that mark. However, their groundball rate is relatively high with those same parameters in place, so look for Pallante to escape any jams he finds himself in.

In relief, the Royals have been awful all season. In the last month, they own a 4.31 xFIP with a sub-20% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate. They have a few arms who can enter the game if Marsh struggles. However, if he does, he will likely exit much sooner than Pallante. Thus, there will be a further strain on the K.C. relievers.

Kansas City Royals

Pallante does not show off with a 4.00 ERA and 3.88 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is exceptional at 86.6 mph. His Hard-Hit Rate is below average, but his ground-ball rate is also noteworthy and ranks in the 97th percentile. He will have a tendency to accrue pitches via the walk, but he does not strike many out, so if he continues to induce grounders, he should match up well with a slumping Royals lineup.

The Cardinals have thrashed righties in the last month. They own a 118 wRC+, 22.7% strikeout rate, and 5.7% walk rate. In contrast to the Royals, the Cards are hitting far fewer grounders with those parameters in place. They do only have four bats above a .320 xwOBA, but they are all above .355. Basically, the top of their lineup is potent, which is enough to knock Marsh out of the game.

The Cardinal relief staff has been subpar, as well, since June 10. They have a 4.50 xFIP with an 18% strikeout rate and 10.5% walk rate. With only a couple of reliable arms in relief, they will need Pallante to pitch deep into this game. The good news is he threw seven strong in his last start.

Cardinals vs. Royals

Betting Pick & Prediction

This bet is more against the Kansas City offense and Marsh as a starter. He is clearly the weaker starter in this game. Pallante can keep the ball on the ground and neutralize the bulk of the Royals’ lineup. Both bullpens have been terrible, so this is a wash. Bet the Cardinals to win the day game tomorrow from -130 to -145. Pallante can save some bullets in the bullpen.

Pick: Cardinals ML (-130; Play to -145)

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