The Baltimore Orioles host the Philadelphia Phillies on August 1, 2026. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
The Phillies are favored by -138 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Orioles are +128 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Orioles Prediction
- Phillies vs Orioles Pick: Orioles ML (+128, 1u | Bet to -105)
My Phillies vs Orioles best bet is on Baltimore to Win. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Orioles Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +112 | 8.5 -104o / -118u | -138 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -134 | 8.5 -104o / -118u | +128 |
- Phillies vs Orioles moneyline: Phillies -138, Orioles +128
- Phillies vs Orioles over/under: 8.5 (-104o / -118u)
- Phillies vs Orioles spread: Phillies -1.5 (+112), Orioles +1.5 (-134)
Phillies vs Orioles Probable Pitchers
| Cristopher Sanchez | Stat | Shane Baz |
|---|---|---|
| 13-4 | W-L | 4-9 |
| 4.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.5 |
| 2.73 / 3.35 | ERA / xERA | 3.98 / 4.29 |
| 2.66 / 2.60 | FIP / xFIP | 3.46 / 4.25 |
| 22.3 | K-BB% | 12 |
| 58 | GB% | 38.7 |
| .337 | BABIP | .320 |
| 118 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 98 | Location+ | 102 |
Phillies vs Orioles MLB Betting Preview
Phillies vs Orioles Pick, Betting Analysis
Cristopher Sanchez has a 5.16 ERA over his last eight starts and while his underlying indicators suggest a .362 BABIP is the cause, his 16.7 K-BB% is down a bit and his season hard hit rate now sits at 42.9%. RHBs are also now up to a .343 wOBA and .320 xwOBA against Sanchez this year.
Sanchez has posted a 4.41 xERA, but 3.16 xFIP during this stretch, but even weighing his more recent starts a bit more heavily, I still have him around three for the season, barely a quarter of a run worse than his 2.73 ERA.
He’s also been a bit unlucky that eight of his 10 barrels have left the park during this rough patch, but five of those were in just two starts.
I still rate Sanchez almost exactly a full run better than Shane Baz, who’s 3.98 ERA aligns almost perfectly with his weighted indicators, pitching much better over his last seven starts with a 16.4 K-BB% and just four barrels (3.4%).
However, the reasons I’ve been on the opposite side of Philly games so often this year remain the offense and defense. Once again, they appear to have neither edge here.
Believe it or not, this Baltimore lineup has come alive, despite some injuries, with the projected lineup averaging a 122 wRC+ at home, 130 wRC+ against LHP and 118 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s small sample 402 wRC+ against LHP skyrockets that second number, but only three of the projected nine are below 100 and I certainly suspect Pete Alonso is better than his 100 wRC+ against lefties this year.
Tyler O’Neill and Coby Mayo both exceed a 170 wRC+ over the last month.
Meanwhile, it’s the same three guys still doing it for the Phillies with Kyle Schwarber (133 wRC+), Bryce Harper (164) and Brandon Marsh (122) the only danger to RHPs this season (nobody else above 92) and Bryan De La Cruz’s 275 wRC+ since his callup skewing the numbers for the projected Philadelphia lineup to 112 over the last 30 days.
This projected nine still average just an 85 wRC+ on the road this season.
Defensively, the Phillies remain a mess, projecting -21 FRV, 17 worse than the Orioles.
BARTOLO does have the Philadelphia bullpen 11 spots ahead of Baltimore, but the Orioles actually have the slightly better estimators over the last 30 days (4.14 FIP, 4.58 xFIP, 4.29 SIERA), while the Phillies have been sixth worst in the league (5.09 FIP, 4.36 xFIP, 3.96 SIERA), allowing 1.63 HR/9.
Pick: Orioles ML (+128, 1u | Bet to -105)
