The Chicago Cubs (81-64) and Milwaukee Brewers (89-56) meet tonight, with the game set to start at 7:40 p.m. EDT at American Family Field in Milwaukee, Wis. The game will be broadcast live on BREW and can be traded on Kalshi.
The Brewers are favored by -1.5 against the spread, with the over/under set at 7.5. The Brewers are the preferred trading option, while the Cubs will be looking to pull off an upset.
Let's get into my Cubs vs. Brewers predictions and picks.
Cubs vs. Brewers Predictions, Odds
Cubs vs. Brewers Pick
Cubs vs. Brewers Pick: Jacob Misiorowski Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (45%, Kalshi)
Cubs vs. Brewers Analysis, Prediction
This is a case where the name attached to the prop looks scary for an over. Jacob Misiorowski is running an absurd 0.75 WHIP and a sub-2.00 ERA, the best pitching season in baseball this year by several measures, but the number itself is set low enough that even his usual level of dominance clears it more often than not.
Across his 25 starts of three-or-fewer earned runs to open the season, he's still allowed hits at a rate that lands right around this line rather than well under it. His home splits this season show an average of a little over three hits allowed per start at American Family Field, and his floor in recent outings has been right in that range.
That last data point matters most here: Misiorowski just faced this exact Chicago lineup less than a week ago at Wrigley and got hit harder than his season line suggests, allowing five hits and five runs over four innings, with Alex Bregman doing most of the damage.
The Cubs have been one of the more disciplined, contact-oriented lineups in the league all year, exactly the profile that tends to grind out at-bats and find enough contact to push a low hits-allowed number over, even against a starter with this level of stuff.
Having the over on a pitcher with a 0.75 WHIP feels counterintuitive, and if Misiorowski is at his absolute best, he can absolutely finish under this number.
However, a 3.5 line is a low bar; his own home and recent-start averages sit right around or above it, and he gave up five hits to this specific Cubs lineup in his last look at them. That head-to-head familiarity, plus the tight number, creates plenty of value on the over.
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Trade: Jacob Misiorowski Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (45%, Kalshi)
