The Minnesota Twins host the Athletics on July 24, 2026. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MNNT.
The Twins are favored by -144 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Athletics are +119 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Athletics vs Twins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Athletics vs Twins Prediction
- Athletics vs Twins Pick: Zebby Matthews Under 17.5 Outs (-112 or Better)
My Athletics vs Twins best bet is on Matthews to record under 17.5 outs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Athletics vs Twins Odds
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -171 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | +119 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +141 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -144 |
- Athletics vs Twins moneyline: Athletics +119, Twins -144
- Athletics vs Twins over/under: 9.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Athletics vs Twins spread: Twins -1.5 (+141), Athletics +1.5 (-171)
Athletics vs Twins Probable Pitchers
| Jacob Lopez | Stat | Zebby Matthews |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | W-L | 4-7 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 6.64 / 3.84 | ERA / xERA | 5.40 / 4.78 |
| 5.77 / 5.80 | FIP / xFIP | 5.22 / 4.40 |
| 4.6 | K-BB% | 12.5 |
| 31.9 | GB% | 39.3 |
| .306 | BABIP | .289 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 100 | Location+ | 99 |
Athletics vs Twins MLB Betting Preview
Athletics vs Twins Pick, Betting Analysis
By Derek Carty
Editor’s note: This article was transcribed from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
We're looking at Zebby Matthews under 17.5 outs recorded. I like it down to around -110.
If you're just going through the game logs, this looks like a terrible bet. He's gone over this number in nine of his 12 starts. But Matthews just isn't a guy who's usually allowed to throw a lot of pitches. Historically, he hasn't been able to go this deep into games, and he hasn't really looked like that great of a pitcher. If I look at the BatCast Stuff Model, it thinks his stuff has gotten significantly worse this year. His ERA is also over 5.00.
It doesn't make sense that he's gone this deep so often, and the projection isn't buying it. The projection says he should go under this number about 58% of the time. If you're going to give us plus money on that, I'm going to take it.
Zebby is a guy I was really high on last year, even when he was sporting a 5.56 ERA because of his strikeout numbers compared to his walk numbers. His strikeout rate was all the way up at 25%, while his walk rate was under 7%.
This year, the walk rate hasn't necessarily gone up, but the strikeout numbers have plummeted. I'm not sure if he's pitching through an injury or if this is just the pitcher he is.
He seems like a young pitcher because he's still inexperienced, but he's 26 now, so that's a little concerning. But we're fading him today. We'll see what the Twins get out of him the rest of the way. One more pitching prop here in the A-grade section. It's not an outs recorded prop, but it's a walks prop on a guy I had my eye on from a betting perspective entering the season. He proved me wrong.
Pick: Zebby Matthews Under 17.5 Outs (-112 or Better)
