The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Yankees on July 24, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
The Phillies are favored by -130 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Yankees are +110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Yankees vs Phillies Prediction
- Yankees vs Phillies Pick: F5 Under 3.5 (+104)
My Yankees vs Phillies best bet is Under 3.5 total runs in the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Phillies Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
- Yankees vs Phillies moneyline: Yankees +110, Phillies -130
- Yankees vs Phillies over/under: 7.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Yankees vs Phillies spread: Yankees +1.5 (-210), Phillies -1.5 (+164)
Yankees vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| Cam Schlittler (RHP, NYY) | Stat | Jesus Luzardo (LHP, PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-6 | W-L | 9-4 |
| 3.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.4 |
| 2.20 / 3.04 | ERA / xERA | 3.43 / 2.90 |
| 2.72 / 2.99 | FIP / xFIP | 2.90 / 2.93 |
| 24.5 | K-BB% | 21.9 |
| 41.9 | GB% | 50.3 |
| .267 | BABIP | .322 |
| 112 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 105 | Location+ | 104 |
Yankees vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
The Yankees and Phillies are two offenses that will always draw public money, but I think the edge is on the mound tonight.
Cam Schlittler has been one of the best breakout stories in baseball this season, and the underlying metrics say it's no fluke. Through 123 innings, he's carrying a 2.20 ERA while pairing an elite strikeout-to-walk ratio with a sub-.300 expected wOBA against.
He's living in the zone without getting punished, ranking among the league leaders in chase rate while keeping his hard-hit and barrel rates well below league average. That's a dangerous combination for opposing lineups because he isn't handing out free passes or giving hitters many mistakes to drive.
The Phillies have plenty of thump with Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner, but this lineup is much more dangerous when pitchers fall behind in counts.
Schlittler has consistently flipped that script all season by getting ahead early and forcing hitters to expand the zone. If he's commanding the fastball as he has for most of the year, I don't see Philadelphia putting together many crooked-number threats early.
Jesus Luzardo has quietly been one of the hottest starters in baseball over the last two months. Since the start of June, he's posted a 2.23 ERA with a 3.06 FIP while punching out 65 hitters in just over 48 innings.
His four-seam fastball has generated elite ride at the top of the zone, and his slider continues to miss bats at an elite clip, giving him one of the better swing-and-miss profiles among left-handed starters. His expected numbers closely mirror the production, which is exactly what you want to see when backing an under.
The matchup sets up well for Luzardo, too. The Yankees are still without Aaron Judge, and the lineup simply isn't as intimidating without him anchoring the middle of the order. They’ve been absolutely dreadful offensively at times in the last few weeks.
Yankees vs Phillies Pick, Betting Analysis
The F5 under is where I'm attacking this game. I think this is the perfect spot to isolate the first five innings instead of playing the full game.
Citizens Bank Park can turn into a launching pad once bullpens get involved, and I'd rather bet on the two best arms in this matchup than trust either relief corps for nine innings.
Everything points to a low-scoring start.
Schlittler limits hard contact, avoids walks and consistently wins the strike zone. Luzardo is in arguably the best stretch of his career, and the metrics fully support it.
Pick: F5 Under 3.5 (+104, FanDuel)
