The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Chicago Cubs on September 17, 2025. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 12:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MARQ.
Find my MLB betting preview and Cubs vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Cubs vs Pirates Prediction
- Cubs vs Pirates picks: Cubs -1.5 (play to -105)
My Cubs vs Pirates best bet is Cubs -1.5 (play to -105). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Pirates Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 8 -110o / -110u | +130 |
Cubs vs Pirates Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Matthew Boyd (CHC) | Stat | RHP Johan Oviedo (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-.8 | W-L | 2-0 |
| 3.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.5 |
| 3.05/3.56 | ERA /xERA | 2.81/2.98 |
| 3.54/3.16 | FIP / xFIP | 3.77/4.55 |
| 1.07 | WHIP | 1.17 |
| 3.7 | K-BB% | 2.1 |
| 38.3 | GB% | 30.2 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 107 | Location+ | 90 |
Sean Paul’s Cubs vs Pirates Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Boyd Getting Help
The last month has been a very shaky one for Matthew Boyd, who posted a 5.31 ERA over his last seven outings. He’s also allowed 4+ runs in four of his last five outings, while allowing at least one homer in four of five outings.
However, I’m willing to back Boyd in this matchup. Boyd has gotten stung by the home run ball a bit too much of late. If he’s able to correct the long-ball woes, this rough stretch can be just that — a rough stretch.
Offensively, the Cubs finally got positive results from both Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong on Monday. The pair of lefties homered, and neither has played well lately.
With Kyle Tucker still on the mend, the Cubs need Busch and Crow-Armstrong to contribute. Busch also got a pair of hits off of Paul Skenes on Tuesday, while Crow-Armstrong knocked in two runs. And to nobody's surprise, the Cubs scored 4+ runs and won. Further adding to my theory that Busch and Crow-Armstrong unlock this Cubs offense.
The Cubs' offense ranks 11th in MLB with a 111 wRC+ since August 25th. They showcased solid power in that span, ranking ninth in isolated power and 11th in homers.
Chicago also showcased a very patient approach, drawing walks at a 10.1% clip. That should be a real factor in this matchup.
I’ll continue buying stock in the Cubs offense heading into the playoffs. Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, and Nico Hoerner have dominated of late, and maybe Busch/PCA get on track. That would help get them back to being an elite offense.
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview: A One Man Ship
I’m actually a believer in Johan Oviedo. Since returning from the injured list, Oviedo has a 2.81 ERA with a 2.99 xERA and a 3.77 FIP. He’s allowed just two homers in his six outings, but he’s struggled to go deep into contests. That’s largely because he’s walking a brutal 4.91 batters per nine — including 3 walks in each of his last three starts.
Oviedo giving the ball to a mediocre bullpen is why the Pirates are 2-3 in his starts. While Oviedo is doing his job, the others behind him aren't.
Since August 1st, the Pirates rank 24th with a 4.79 bullpen ERA, but they are 13th with a 4.12 FIP. However, if Oviedo can't provide length, it'll force the Pirates' pen to cover 12 outs — if not more.
The Pirates' offense got totally overmatched by Jameson Taillon in the series opener and stud rookie Cade Horton in game two.
Their offense doing nothing is not a new development, though. Pittsburgh ranks 29th with a 77 wRC+ over its last 21 games. The way to beat Boyd is by hitting for power, and the Pirates don't hit for power. They have just 13 homers over that span — the fewest by two homers, while posting a league-worst 116 ISO.
Cubs vs Pirates Prediction, Betting Analysis
Let's take a shot here on the Cubs at -1.5 at plus money. The Pirates aren't a very good team and the Cubs have shown that through the first two games of this series. Chicago was one of the best teams in the first-half and then it stopped hitting.
The Pirates don't have the proper formula to hit Boyd due to their power issues. Plus, the Cubs can be patient and force Oviedo's pitch count up to get him out of the game and pounce on this disaster of a bullpen.
Pick: Cubs -1.5 (play to -105)
Moneyline
No play.
Run Line (Spread)
I like the Cubs here.
Over/Under
No play.
Cubs vs Pirates Betting Trends
