The Philadelphia Phillies host the Cincinnati Reds on July 4, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSOH.
The Reds will send Andrew Abbott to the mound against Jesus Luzardo of the Phillies in the opener of this three-game weekend series.
Find my MLB betting preview and Reds vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Reds vs Phillies Prediction
- Reds vs Phillies picks: Under 8 (-102, BetMGM)
My Reds vs Phillies best bet is Under 8. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Phillies Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8 -118o / -102u | +135 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -118o / -102u | -160 |
Reds vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Andrew Abbott (CIN) | Stat | LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | W-L | 7-4 |
| 1.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.7 |
| 1.79/3.05 | ERA /xERA | 4.06/3.57 |
| 3.51/4.09 | FIP / xFIP | 2.76/3.25 |
| 1.02 | WHIP | 1.41 |
| 16.9 | K-BB% | 19.4 |
| 30.5 | GB% | 42.5 |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 101 | Location+ | 109 |
Reds vs Phillies Preview
In their combined past 10 games, only the Reds managed to score more than six runs once, and today, we have a great southpaw matchup between Andrew Abbott and Jesus Luzardo that should favor the under.
Abbott is having a career season in 2025 with a 1.79 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and a 7-1 record. He is holding batters to a .202 average against him and has reduced his HardHit% to 32.6.
The Reds starter has not given up more than one run in his last four starts. His performance on the road has been superior to his home splits, with a 1.42 away ERA compared to 2.13 in Cincinnati.
The question is if the Phillies' Luzardo can match him today. Luzardo had a terrible May with an ERA of 5.56 and a WHIP of 1.62, and also had two very rough outings in June. However, the lefty has regained his form in the last two starts.
Luzardo allowed no runs and three hits in 6 and 2/3 innings against the Mets on June 22, and gave up only two runs in his last outing against the Braves on June 28.
Both offenses do worse against left-handed pitchers, with Philadelphia falling from 4th overall to 6th versus southpaws in wRC+ and Cincinnati going from 15th to 21st.
This aligns with our Bet Labs recommendation with the Low Total Unders with Line Movement (F5) system.
Reds vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
This MLB first five innings system, titled "Low Total Unders with Line Movement (F5)," is built around early-game environments where oddsmakers and sharp bettors anticipate limited scoring.
The foundation starts with a low closing total —between 3.5 and 6.5— indicating a strong pitcher’s duel or poor hitting conditions. If the full game total has moved down between half a run and one run from open to close, it signals smart money pushing the market toward the under.
The model further refines this edge by requiring the juice on the under to remain within a sharp range, typically between -149 and -120, avoiding inflated pricing that could distort value.
Games played in modest wind conditions —between four and nine miles per hour— are included, as they often suppress offense without triggering a dramatic public reaction.
By isolating games across the past three seasons and targeting first-half unders in tightly lined, downward-trending markets, this system captures value where the market signals defensive control without overreaction.
Pick: Under 8 (-102, BetMGM)
