The Boston Red Sox host the Cleveland Guardians on September 1, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on CLEG.
Find my MLB betting preview and Guardians vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Guardians vs Red Sox Prediction
- Guardians vs Red Sox pick: F5 Under 4.5
My Guardians vs Red Sox best bet is on the under total runs in the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Red Sox Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Guardians vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Parker Messick (CLE) | Stat | RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 10-6 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 0.66/2.85 | ERA /xERA | 2.99/4.25 |
| 1.59/2.48 | FIP / xFIP | 4.09/4.25 |
| 0.88 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 22.0% | K-BB% | 10.4% |
| 40.5% | GB% | 49.4% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 137 | Location+ | 105 |
Charlie Wright’s Prediction, Betting Analysis
Brayan Bello continues to get it done with his new cutter. The pitch has rounded out his arsenal, helping his sinker (+6 run value) and 4-seamer (+2 run value) play up. He's only throwing the cutter 13.3% of the time, but it has a +4 run value.
Bello has rattled off 3 straight quality starts to push his ERA back under 3.00. His ERA estimators suggest he's the same pitcher from prior seasons, but any concerns about the underlying metrics can be put aside due to the matchup. Cleveland ranked dead last in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. RHP in August.
Parker Messick has been phenomenal through 2 outings. The top prospect has allowed just a run over 13.2 IP with a crisp 12:1 K:BB. Walks were an issue at times in the minors, but he has a solid 67.4% strike rate so far in the big leagues.
Messick has picked on some weaker offenses, and he'll get another one here. Boston ranks 23rd in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. LHP since the start of July.
Pick: F5 Under 4.5
Guardians vs Red Sox Betting Trends
