Cubs vs. Yankees Odds & Picks: Why to Bet Chicago on Friday

Cubs vs. Yankees Odds

Wade Miley returns from the injured list Friday as the Chicago Cubs take on Luis Severino and the New York Yankees.

Miley has only had three appearances this season, but he did not allow more than three runs in any. Granted, one was only three innings. Severino, on the other hand, has been dominant. He owns a 2.60 xERA against a 2.94 ERA. If anything, he has been unlucky and still getting great results. He ranks in the top half of the league in every peripheral metric.

That said, the Cubs have hit righties well over the last month. With the litany of right-handers in the Yankees bullpen and Severino at the helm, are the Cubs the smart bet as big underdogs?

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Can Miley Have Success Against Bombers?

Miley has a 3.34 xERA on his season in a small sample size. He is a pitch-to-contact starter, ranking among the slowest fastballs in the MLB, but he does not allow hard contact.

Last season he ranked in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity at 85.7 mph. This is important, considering the Yankees are the hardest hitting team in the majors at 44.3% as a hard hit rate and average exit velocity of 90.6 mph. In the last month against left-handers, though, the New York ranks 19th in wRC+ at 97, so slightly below average. For one of the best teams in baseball, this is noteworthy.

In the last two weeks, specifically, the Yankees have struggled at the bottom of the order. They have five hitters over the .340 xwOBA mark. This should give enough leeway to Miley to at least mitigate damage from an otherwise powerful set of hitters.

The Cubs' bullpen has also been among the best in baseball all season. They own a team 3.35 xFIP in the last month of baseball, which is incredibly impressive. Only Rowan Wick has a 4.00+ xFIP. This means that based on expectations, every reliever has essentially been solid.

This will come in handy against the Yankees. Sean Newcomb is on the IL, so they do lose a left-hander, but either way Daniel Norris might be a good option after Miley to throw the Yankee hitters off again.

Cubs' Bats Could Cause Severino Trouble

Severino has returned to the highs of his career before his injuries. One area of concern could be the hard hit percentage, as he ranks in the 52nd percentile. He is above average, but not by much.

Yan Gomes and Seiya Suzuki are on the injured list, but the Cubs do have some other hitters who can smack the ball. Off of righties in the last month, Willson Contreras, Patrick Wisdom and Christopher Morel are all averaging at least 90 mph off the bat.

In addition, they have seven hitters over with a .338+ xwOBA. Compared to New York in the past two weeks, this is an edge. Yes, Miley is not as strong as Severino, but since he induces weak contact, the Cubs should be able to negate the Yankees’ impact from the batter’s box.

The Yankees always have a tough relief corps. Jonathan Loáisiga and Aroldis Chapman are on the IL, so this hinders their depth. Lucas Luetge, Wandy Peralta and Manny Bañuelos are the southpaws for the Yanks, so if they want to deploy relievers to the Cubs’ disadvantage, this is the route to go. Luetge has struggled lately, so the bullpen is a little short-handed with lockdown relievers.

Cubs-Yankees Pick

The Cubs have value because of their bats, since they can hit righties. Even with Severino on the bump for New York, the Cubs should find a way to push some runs across.

In addition, Miley limits hard contact, which should work against a Yankees team that notoriously hits the ball hard.

Because the Cubs have a better bullpen, they have some value at the end of the game, as well against a short-handed Yankees pen, take the Cubs to +185.

Pick: Chicago Cubs +210 | play to +185

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