The Toronto Blue Jays host the Detroit Tigers on May 16, 2025. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The AL-leading Tigers will have the opportunity to collect their 30th win of the season in the series opener Friday evening, while the Blue Jays will simply be looking to reach the .500 mark. Detroit is a slight betting favorite, as Jack Flaherty (4.61 ERA, 41 IP) will face off against Bowden Francis (5.40 ERA, 41 and 2/3 IP).
Find my Tigers vs Blue Jays prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Tigers vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Tigers vs Blue Jays Pick: Over 8.5 (-105 · Play to -115)
My Blue Jays vs. Tigers best bet is for both teams to go over the total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Blue Jays Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | -118 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | -102 |
Tigers vs Blue Jays Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jack Flaherty (DET) | Stat | RHP Bowden Francis (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | W-L | 2-5 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.4 |
| 4.61/4.68 | ERA /xERA | 5.40/6.25 |
| 4.61/3.35 | FIP / xFIP | 6.34/4.61 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.32 |
| 20.8 | K-BB% | 10.8 |
| 38.3 | GB% | 34.8 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 101 | Location+ | 104 |
Tigers vs Blue Jays MLB Betting Preview
Detroit Tigers Betting Preview: Roaring Early in 2025
After an incredible finish to the 2024 season to earn a Wild Card berth, the Tigers have picked up right where they left off, ranking first in MLB with a +86 run differential and first in the AL with a record of 29-15.
Detroit's offensive play has been excellent, as it ranks third in runs per game while holding a wRC+ of 117.
They've been even more productive of late, boasting a wRC+ of 133 over the last 14 days with an OPS of .820 in that span. The Tigers also rank fifth in wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
The Tigers' talented young core of Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter have all gotten off to excellent starts and have slugged over .500 as a group.
While it was realistic to expect that trio could combine for more production this season, it was very hard to expect Javier Baez and Gleyber Torres to slug .496 and .455, respectively.
After a solid start to the season, Flaherty enters this matchup in horrible form, having allowed an ERA of 6.67 over his last five starts.
He has been hit hard 43.6% of the time in those outings and holds a Pitching+ rating of 99. Over the entirety of the season, Flaherty owns an xERA of 4.68.
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview: Offensive Surge, Bullpen Woes
The Blue Jays offense has finally started to live up to preseason expectations recently, as it has started to hit to more average rates with runners in scoring position and hit home runs at a higher rate.
Over the last 14 days, the Blue Jays rank fourth in baseball with a wRC+ rating of 130, sixth in BB/K ratio and fourth in hard-hit rate.
Just as the offense has gotten going, the high-leverage arms in the Blue Jays' bullpen have fallen apart, which has prevented the team from gaining any ground in the standings.
Toronto's bullpen has allowed an ERA of 4.09 over the last two weeks, but it has felt even worse than that. High-leverage arms such as Jeff Hoffman and Yariel Rodriguez have struggled in key moments.
Francis had a tremendous finish to the 2024 season after adjusting his pitch mix but has struggled to find the same level of success in 2025, as batters seem to have adjusted.
He holds an xERA of 6.25 and an xFIP of 4.61. His Stuff+ rating is down to 94, and his strikeout rate has dropped to 17%.
Tigers vs Blue Jays Pick, Betting Analysis
This is a good spot to expect two of the league's hottest offenses to offer productive performances, as both starters have been highly unconvincing of late.
The Tigers offense has obviously overachieved early on and will likely come down to earth to some extent in the near future. Francis looks to be a below-average starter right now, however, and Toronto's bullpen has also been a concern recently.
The Blue Jays' offensive process suggested they were due for better results earlier this season, and they have finally started to produce runs at a higher rate recently with more average results with runners in scoring position.
Flaherty is in horrible form entering this matchup, and Toronto should continue its offensive upswing in this matchup.
There looks to be value in betting this game to feature over 8.5 total runs at -105.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-105 · Play to -115)
Moneyline
At their opening price of +115, the Blue Jays looked to hold clear value as a side, but now that they're down to -105, the sides appear to be priced appropriately.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Blue Jays would be my lean in terms of a bet on the run line, but it's not a bet I'll be making.
Over/Under
As outlined, betting the game to feature over 8.5 total runs is my favorite play from this matchup.
