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Diamondbacks vs. Reds MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Value on Road Underdog in Cincinnati (Thursday, June 9)

Diamondbacks vs. Reds MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Value on Road Underdog in Cincinnati (Thursday, June 9) article feature image
Credit:

Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images. Pictured: Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zach Davies.

  • The D-backs and Reds are set for the finale of a four-game series that has had multiple weather delays.
  • The matchup looks fairly even on paper, but our analyst found value on the road underdog
  • Read below for D.J. James' breakdown and best bet.

Diamondbacks vs. Reds Odds

Diamondbacks Odds +120
Reds Odds -140
Over/Under 10 (-105/-115)
Time 12:35 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Tyler Mahle and the Cincinnati Reds will host Zach Davies and the Arizona Diamondbacks in the finale of a four-game set. Davies has been a bit unlucky this season. He has a 4.18 ERA against a 3.76 xERA, so expectations are that he will soon yield strong results. Mahle has been far unluckier with a 5.43 ERA and 3.87 xERA. Mahle’s main issue has been allowing walks and he ranks in the 26th percentile in MLB (10.7%). Meanwhile Davies walks batters at a 9.0% rate and does not fan them very often.

The difference here is that Davies limits hard contact more often. This should essentially be a pick ‘em, but because it isn’t, the Diamondbacks have value on the moneyline.

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Arizona Diamondbacks: Davies Should be Strong Against Reds

Davies has excelled in the Exit Velocity column this season. An average exit velocity against of 85.3 MPH puts Davies in the 94th percentile. He is also only allowing a Hard-Hit Rate of 29.6%, which ranks in the 91st percentile. Cincinnati has been decent against right-handers in the past month, having posted a 105 wRC+. However, Brandon Drury has an Achilles issues, so there is a chance he will ride the pine. This eliminates a huge, impactful Cincinnati bat. In addition, Jake Fraley, Tyler Naquin, Jonathan India, Max Schrock and Mike Moustakas are all on the Injured List. Other than those hitters, only Joey Votto, Tommy Pham, Albert Almora, Jr. and Colin Moran have a xwOBA over .340 since May 8. Cincinnati, as a team, doesn’t hit the ball very hard (37.5% Hard-Hit Rate), so expect Davies to be effective.

Davies has a tendency to go deep into the ballgame at times. This will provide some much-needed bullpen wiggle room. The Diamondbacks have five arms with a sub-4.00 xFIP, so they should have enough to keep the Reds lineup in check when Davies leaves the game.

Cincinnati Reds: Can Mahle Throw Strikes Against Arizona?

Mahle is a different style of pitcher. He ranks in the 53rd percentile in both Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Percentage. The D-Backs are missing Carson Kelly and Nick Ahmed, who is one of four hitters with a xwOBA over .330 versus righties. Alek Thomas, Christian Walker and Josh Rojas are the other notable names on the Arizona roster. The Diamondbacks have multiple other hitters over the .300 mark and they don’t drop off as significantly as the Reds from the top of the order to the bottom. Arizona should piece together tough at bats. In addition, Arizona is an incredibly patient team. Overall, the Diamondbacks rank fifth in baseball with a 9.8% walk rate. This does not bode well for Mahle and the Diamondbacks should find some room for clutch hitting.

The Reds have a 4.14 xFIP as a team over the past month. They are almost neck-and-neck with the D-Backs in terms of bullpen results. Since they also have a few arms to throw once Mahle leaves the game, this is a wash.

Diamondbacks-Reds Pick

The Diamondbacks and Reds are dead even over the past month against righties. Davies allows weaker contact and the absence of Brandon Drury missing is a massive loss for the Reds. The bottom of the Arizona lineup is more solid, so if Mahle starts walking hitters, Arizona should push across runs. Take the Diamondbacks at +120. Play to -110.

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks +120 | play to -110

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