Dodgers vs. Cardinals MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back LA to Stay Hot in St. Louis (Tuesday, July 12)
Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Mookie Betts
- The Dodgers are road favorites in St. Louis as they look for their 12th win in 13 games.
- The Dodgers will send Mitch White to the mound while the Cardinals will counter with Matthew Liberatore.
- Charlie DiSturco breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.
Dodgers vs. Cardinals Odds
|Time||7:45 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The red-hot Los Angeles Dodgers head to St. Louis to open up a three-game series with the Cardinals. The Dodgers enter as winners in 11 of their last 12 while the Cardinals split a four-game series with the Phillies.
The Dodgers turn to Mitch White on Tuesday night while the Cardinals match with former first round pick Matthew Liberatore.
Can the Cardinals rally behind Liberatore en route to a win, or will the Dodgers continue to sizzle at Busch Stadium?
The Dodgers Look to Keep Rolling on the Road
White has quietly been a consistent arm for the Dodgers, filling in for the injured Andrew Heaney.
Since his return to the majors, White has thrown 14 1/3 innings of five-run ball — four earned — on just 12 hits. His expected indicators aren’t too far off from his 3.38 ERA either, with his xERA sitting at 3.79 and his xFIP at 3.96.
Opponents only have a .244 xBA against him, which ranks slightly above average, but it’s his 32.4 percent Hard-Hit Rate that’s been the difference-maker. White ranks in the top 15 percent of all pitchers in that category.
Nonetheless, there are some concerns for White as he enters his second season in the majors. He has an 8.78 K/9 as opponents rarely chase him out of the zone. He also ranks in the bottom third of all pitchers in Walk Rate.
Offensively, the Dodgers have been red-hot at the plate. This coincides with their 11 wins over the last 12 — including three of four over San Diego — adding cushion to their lead atop the NL West.
Can Liberatore Step Up for the Cardinals?
Liberatore enters fresh off a four-inning, three-hit shutout of the Atlanta Braves, but I’m expecting the opposite result on Tuesday night.
The left-hander has struggled since coming to the big leagues. Despite his 4.74 ERA, his xERA is nearly a run higher at 5.49. He’s also given up a 52.5 Hard-Hit Rate, which ranks in the bottom one percent of all pitchers and has been barreled 10 percent of the time.
The southpaw is still only 22 years old, but to say he’s been hittable is an understatement. His fastball (.330 xBA) and sinker (.290 xBA) have been teed off on, and he doesn’t generate many swings and misses.
Tack on his 12.1 percent Walk Rate, and Liberatore is a walking red flag on the mound as he settles into the majors. He pitches to contact — normally in the air — that more often than not hits 95-plus miles per hour off the bat.
Offensively, the Cardinals have slumped over the last two weeks. They are 25th in wRC+ and 27th in wOBA. While they don’t strike out much, they haven’t walked a lot, either.
St. Louis has been very shorthanded too, with three starters — Yadier Molina, Tyler O’Neill and Harrison Bader — on the Injured List.
This is the perfect spot to back the Dodgers to continue rolling. I don’t love the idea of backing White or think he’s undervalued, but this matchup is too good to pass on.
The Cardinals bats have struggled over the last few weeks, and aside from Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, I’m not too scared by their lineup. White should have few issues limiting damage through four or five innings before the bullpen takes over.
Meanwhile, Liberatore has been a disaster in his limited big-league experience, and now he draws arguably the best lineup in baseball. If you take a look at his Baseball Savant page, it’s all blue circles, and rightfully so.
He has been torn up in six games with a .525 xSLG and Hard-Hit Rate of 52.5, and the Dodgers’ bats should feast on the southpaw on Tuesday night.
While Liberatore has potential, he’s on my fade list until he proves me otherwise. The advanced metrics are way too alarming to ignore.
I got the number earlier, and it’s ballooned up —. for good reason — but I still think the Dodgers are the way to go on Tuesday night. Back LA to stay hot on the moneyline at -150 on BetRivers with value to -155.
Pick: Dodgers Moneyline -150 (play to -155)