Dodgers vs Mariners Pick Saturday | MLB Odds, Predictions Today (September 16)
Alika Jenner/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Miller #50 of the Seattle Mariners.
Dodgers vs. Mariners Odds
With their magic number to win yet another NL West crown down to two, the Dodgers could be celebrating as early as tonight should the Giants and Diamondbacks lose Saturday. Clayton Kershaw (2.61 ERA, 117 and 1/3 IP) will pitch on 10 days rest for the Dodgers versus Bryce Miller (4.05 ERA, 117 and 2/3 IP).
Here's a preview of Saturday's Dodgers vs Mariners matchup, including odds and a betting pick.
Kershaw's fastball velo took a concerning dip in his matchup against the Miami Marlins on Sept. 5, which led to the decision to skip a turn in the rotation and attempt to get right for the postseason. It has been well documented that Kershaw is fighting some shoulder issues, but the team is hoping the extra rest will provide an opportunity to make sure Kershaw's mechanics are right for the push into the postseason.
In eight of the last nine seasons, Kershaw has pitched to a considerably lower ERA than his xERA. He has demonstrated an ability to get outs in the right moments that is hard to quantify analytically, and that strength has helped him achieve success this season relative to a still strong 3.75 xERA.
In 22 innings of work since the All-Star break Kershaw owns an ERA of 2.86 with a WHIP of 1.14. His stuff still rates better than average (103 Stuff+), which has been plenty for one of the more intelligent pitchers in history to work with at age 35.
The Dodgers' high-powered offense has hit to a wRC+ of 124 over the last 30 days, with a BB/K of 0.45. No key pieces are likely to be absent from the lineup in tonight's matchup.
Bryce Miller has pitched to a 4.18 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 58 and 2/3 innings of work since the All-Star break. That is a mark the Mariners will happily take considering his spot in the rotation and that he is eating solid innings, but the potential for better could still exist considering his arm talent.
The 25-year old owns a Stuff+ mark of 117, and a Location+ mark of 104. Despite those strong ratings, he has been consistently hit fairly well leading to an xERA of 4.81 and an xFIP of 4.21.
The Mariners own a wRC+ of 132 over the last 30 days despite still holding a concerning strikeout rate of 25%. Hitting .332 on BABIP has helped quell that concern, but is likely inflating the form of a middle of the pack offense.
Dodgers vs. Mariners
Betting Pick & Prediction
T-Mobile Park is likely to have favorable conditions for pitchers in tonight, and both of these starters are guys who could potentially find better form moving forwards. Some extra rest could help Kershaw settle back in to top form, and the Mariners offense is quietly a solid matchup for him.
While Miller has struggled recently, his stuff is still rating quite well and could be a target to buy-low on right now. Both of these bullpens have been dominant recently, and should make this game a grind once the starters exit. Even if one of these somewhat concerning starters have a bad showing, we could still potentially see this game stay under the total of 8.
At the time of writing, the under 8 can be found at -102 at DraftKings, and I believe anything better than -110 is a play on this matchup. This could potentially be a reasonable time to look for a live-betting angle as well depending on where Kershaw seems to be at early. If his arm does not seem to be there but he manages to escape the first inning or two unscathed, keep an eye on live prices to back Seattle.