Giants vs Red Sox Odds, Prediction | Back Underdog Boston?

Giants vs Red Sox odds for Tuesday night have the Giants listed as -125 favorites on the moneyline, with an over/under of 8. For my Giants vs Red Sox prediction, I will be looking at a side.

Giants vs Red Sox on Tuesday features Logan Webb on the mound for San Francisco and Cooper Criswell for Boston.

Let's dive into my MLB betting preview and Giants vs Red Sox pick.

Webb has gotten off to a good start in 2024, posting a 3-1 record with a 2.33 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through his first six outings. However, his underlying metrics suggest those results are unsustainable.

Entering this matchup, the right-hander ranks in the 40th percentile in xERA, eighth percentile in xBA and 37th percentile in Hard-Hit%. This expected regression could come to fruition against Boston, a team he possesses a 4.38 ERA against through two career meetings.

Following Webb is arguably the worst bullpen in baseball, as San Francisco's relief staff ranks last in the league in ERA and 26th in FIP.

To make matters worse, this pitching staff may not get much run support considering the Giants rank in the bottom half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.

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The Giants' hitting woes are likely to continue against Criswell, a right-hander who has also gotten off to a good start this season. Through his first three appearances on the mound, Criswell boasts a 2.38 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

His underlying metrics also are not the greatest relative to the surface-level stats, but Criswell still outranks Webb in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and Hard-Hit%. Not only does Boston boast the edge in terms of starting pitching, but its relief staff also outranks San Francisco's bullpen in ERA, FIP and xFIP.

This pitching staff is also likely to get a good amount of run support, as the Red Sox rank in the top 12 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases. Boston has won six of its past nine games, averaging a dominating six runs scored per game.

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I don't understand why this line is favored toward San Francisco. I could see why the market would move the line toward Webb and the Giants in this matchup given he is far more of a household name than Criswell, but there is just not a single edge in this matchup that goes toward the betting favorite.

Boston boasts the better lineup, bullpen and homefield advantage. And, analytically speaking, Criswell is better than Webb in the small sample size of work we have seen this year.

On top of all those variables, the Giants have never gone against Criswell prior to Tuesday, so it may take a few rotations through the batting order to figure him out.

Pick: Red Sox ML (+110 at FanDuel | Play to +100)