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MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Guardians vs. Tigers: Betting Value on Game Total in AL Central Clash (Wednesday, July 6)

MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Guardians vs. Tigers: Betting Value on Game Total in AL Central Clash (Wednesday, July 6) article feature image
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Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Riley Green (Tigers)

  • The Guardians and Tigers square off in the final game of their four-game AL Central set.
  • Shane Bieber takes the hill for Cleveland while Detroit is sending Michael Pineda to the bump.
  • D.J. James dives into the matchup and explains why he's targeting the total.

Guardians vs. Tigers Odds

Guardians Odds -180
Tigers Odds +155
Over/Under 8 (-110 / -110)
Time 1:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Neither the Cleveland Guardians, nor the Detroit Tigers are very strong hitting teams, particularly against right-handed pitching.

However, Shane Bieber and Michael Pineda are both overrated and have feasted off of good fortune. Bieber owns a 3.17 ERA against a 4.01 xERA. Pineda has a 3.62 ERA against a 6.27 xERA.

Pineda does not even strike out hitters. He only owns a 13.8% clip, so the Guardians — who predominantly thrive off of contact — will have plenty of opportunities while he remains in the game.

Bieber holds an Average Exit Velocity against of 90.5 mph. Detroit may hold only a 78 wRC+ mark off of righties in the last month, but it should be able to exploit this issue, especially at the top of the lineup and with the promotion of one of the most prized prospects in the league, Riley Greene.

The over is the correct play in this game, as neither pitcher is particularly sharp.

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Will Guardians’ Bieber Shut Down Opponent?

Bieber has an above average strikeout and walk rate. As far as how well he might perform going forward, that’s about it. This means he’ll probably strikeout many Tigers, but they should exploit his weaknesses.

For one, the Tigers’ wRC+ doesn’t tell their entire story over the last month against righties. They have eight hitters over a .330 xwOBA when facing right-handers in the last month.

Some of these numbers are small sample sizes, but it says they should be able to piece together strong plate appearances against Bieber and the Cleveland bullpen.

Anthony Gose is injured out of the bullpen for the Guardians. Alex Young was performing well for them, but he’s back in the minors. Only Trevor Stephan and Enyel De Los Santos have a 4.00+ xFIP. They are only slightly above that clip, though.

This means the Tigers will have to manufacture runs while Bieber is still on the hill.


Tigers’ Pineda Running Into Bad Matchup

Pineda averages an Exit Velocity of 92.5 mph with a xBA of .319. This is abysmal.

Andrés Giménez, Josh Naylor, Sandy León and Steven Kwan are the only batters above a .325 xwOBA for the Guardians. Cleveland is first in strikeouts with only 549 — the next closest has 39 more. This makes its strikeout percentage only 16.7%, an MLB-best.

This means the Guardians will make contact consistently and play to the main weakness of Pineda. Expect the top-half of this lineup to riddle consistent runs and force Pineda out of the game to get into an average bullpen.

The Tigers have a 3.75 xFIP over the last month. They have a few weak spots the Guardians can exploit. Michael Fulmer did struggle in the earlier parts of this season. Alex Lange and Gregory Soto don’t have command over their pitches at times.

Cleveland should be able to score a couple of runs late in this game, as well.

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Guardians-Tigers Pick

Essentially, the market is way too bullish on both Bieber and Pineda when neither has proven their worth this season. They’re both getting incredibly lucky, and both are struggling in terms of limiting hard contact.

Look for both the Tigers and Guardians’ lineups to take advantage.

Cleveland is elite in making contact, which has gotten it to this position. Pineda rarely strikes out hitters, so the Guardians will find a way on base.

Bieber has his work cut out for him. The Tigers’ lineup doesn’t have as many holes as a 78 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the last month would suggest.

Take the over in this game from 7.5 (+105), and play it to 8 (-110). Each team should be able to produce early in this game.

Pick: Over 7.5 (+105) | play to 8 (-120)

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