The Chicago Cubs host the Toronto Blue Jays on August 6, 2026. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 2:20 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SNET.
The Blue Jays are favored by -116 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cubs are +108 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Cubs prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Cubs Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Cubs Pick: Cubs (+108)
My Blue Jays vs Cubs best bet is on Chicago to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Cubs Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +138 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | -116 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 7.5 -112o / -108u | +108 |
- Blue Jays vs Cubs moneyline: Blue Jays -116, Cubs +108
- Blue Jays vs Cubs over/under: 7.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Blue Jays vs Cubs spread: Blue Jays -1.5 (+138), Cubs +1.5 (-166)
Blue Jays vs Cubs Probable Pitchers
| Dylan Cease (RHP, TOR) | Stat | David Peterson (LHP, CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-5 | W-L | 6-7 |
| 4.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.9 |
| 2.41 / 2.77 | ERA / xERA | 5.52 / 5.04 |
| 2.30 / 2.67 | FIP / xFIP | 4.10 / 4.15 |
| 25.6 | K-BB% | 9.9 |
| 44.2 | GB% | 48.4 |
| .289 | BABIP | .312 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 98 | Location+ | 101 |
Blue Jays vs Cubs MLB Betting Preview
Dylan Cease was pushed back a day to start this makeup game for the Blue Jays at Wrigley. He has six straight quality starts with at least seven strikeouts in all of them and seven or more innings in three.
While a 4.01 Bot ERA (his worst grade in three years) may have some explaining to do, Cease complements it with a 106 Pitching+ and doesn’t otherwise have another estimator reaching three.
His BABIP is down 31 points from last season and his strand rate up 8.7 percentage points, and, like a miracle, his ERA has dropped over two runs from last year. The career-high 36.2 K% doesn’t hurt either.
However, he’ll be facing a very dangerous Chicago lineup averaging a 111 wRC+ against RHP this season and 120 wRC+ over the last 30 days, and he’ll do so under hitter-friendly conditions at Wrigley.
While most weather sources are calling for a boost between 15% and 20%, none are calling for strong winds, while the direction of that wind is also a source of conflict.
Cease will also be dealing with a lesser Toronto defense behind him than he has come to expect in a Blue Jays uniform. Not only is Daulton Varsho gone, but the projected lineup against LHP is a below-average defense at -5 FRV.
While one of their four worst defenders will probably DH, it still leaves at least three players with -3 FRV or worse on the field, likely Okamoto, Clement, and either Davis Schneider or Jesus Sanchez.
Despite the trade of Jeff Hoffman, both 30-day estimators (average of FIP, xFIP, and SIERA) and BARTOLO’s full-season numbers have the Toronto bullpen right around four, ranked smack in the middle of the league.
Opposing Cease will be David Peterson, who’s allowed just five runs (four earned) in 23.2 innings in four starts since his disastrous 10-run outing in his second start for the Cubs.
He’s done this with 51.5% of his contact on the ground, and as expected, the elite defense behind him has been gobbling up just about everything, even if his .156 BABIP during this stretch is completely unsustainable.
Thursday’s projected Chicago lineup, their standard against RHP lately, sits at 59 FRV.
Peterson will also be facing a projected Toronto lineup averaging a 75 wRC+ on the road and 81 vs LHP this year.
Blue Jays vs Cubs Pick, Betting Analysis
The Cubs did add to their bullpen at the deadline, but their BARTOLO ranking (21) is still well below their last 30-day estimators (12th). Their wFIP is also a bit more than one-third of a run above the average of their FIP (3.91), xFIP (4.12), and SIERA (3.83) over the last month.
Cease is the clear superior starter in this matchup. I have him a bit more than a run and a third ahead of Peterson, but just about everything else is coming up Cubs, including a projected 8 BRR (Base Running Runs) edge. Both offensively and defensively, it's not even close.
The Cubs are around 30 points of wRC+ better and project for an overwhelming 64 FRV edge (probably closer to 60 with the DH, but still…).
I have the bullpens around even and make the Cubs the favorite in this game.
There’s certainly the chance that Dylan Cease can punch out 10+ Cubs and shut them out over seven innings, but if the Blue Jays are going to win this game, it’ll likely be on his back without much help.
Picks: Cubs ML +108, 1u (FanDuel | Bet to -130)
